The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Vega]

Ben Carson very likely

The Herman Cain of 2016, folks.

[Mr. Morden]

Ben Carson very likely

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, Jim Webb:

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/09/23/former-va-sen-webb-seriously-looking-at-2016-presidential-campaign/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, Jeb Bush:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102025140#.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Huckabee and Jindal will be in New Hampshire this week:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/09/23/republican-2016-hopefuls-court-pastors

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to NH next month for Garcia.

[tmthforu94]

Ann Romney leaves the door open for Mitt `16.

[Mr. Morden]

Webb will visit NH to campaign for Shaheen next month:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/09/24/jim-webb-to-speak-at-n-h-college-stump-for-shaheen-as-he-tests-presidential-waters/

[RogueBeaver]

Romney 2016 could be real if Jeb doesn't run. Believe when seen, but headdesk if true.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 2016 could be real if Jeb doesn't run. Believe when seen, but headdesk if true.

Has there ever been a US presidential election in which both major party candidates were over 60 years old?  I can't think of one.  But it would happen in 2016 if Clinton is the Dem. nominee and either Bush or Romney is the GOP nominee.

[RogueBeaver]

Brady will challenge Ryan for W&M. Ryan is still considering running and now crunch time will come sooner. Certain colleagues wonder if he'll be a full-time chairman.

[tmthforu94]

Mittmentum continues to grow.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to NH for Brown Oct. 7. Rubio also hosted a Miami fundraiser for Martinez.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio will visit SC next month to court DeMint's people:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/25/politics/rubio-south-carolina/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal to SC next month. Rand will stump for a few Senate candidates: Roberts, Ernst, Land, Gillespie, Tillis. Long Jeb article by Ben White sounds like Jeb's genuinely torn, reluctant with many family concerns.

[Mr. Morden]

More Bush on 2016:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/us/politics/jeb-bush-returns-to-fray-and-finds-going-rough.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That story also talks about how Bush bombed in his campaign appearance for Thom Tillis in North Carolina.  He talked about his support for immigration reform and Common Core, which prompted Tillis to distance himself from Bush's remarks.  Bush will certainly need more practice if he's going to get back into campaign form.

[IceSpear]

More Bush on 2016:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/us/politics/jeb-bush-returns-to-fray-and-finds-going-rough.html?_r=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That story also talks about how Bush bombed in his campaign appearance for Thom Tillis in North Carolina.  He talked about his support for immigration reform and Common Core, which prompted Tillis to distance himself from Bush's remarks.  Bush will certainly need more practice if he's going to get back into campaign form.

lol. Jeb's screw up in North Carolina is way more of a problem than Hillary's "dead broke" comment. I wonder if the media will write 1,000,000,000 columns about it. Somehow I doubt it.

[Likely Voter]

With the few interactions Bush has had with politics in the last couple of years it is hard for him to come away thinking he will be able to campaign "joyfully" which was his precondition. He is seeing that today's GOP primary electorate are not very 'joyful' people

[RogueBeaver]

Jamelle Bouie says the same thing: even compares him to Fred Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

I think an underappreciated factor in presidential politics is how valuable desperation to win is.  Romney wanted the nomination more than any of the other candidates did in 2012.  Many of the others either just wanted to sell books (e.g., Cain, Gingrich), or only ran because they saw an opening (e.g., Perry).  They weren't actually desperate to win, like Romney was.  Similarly, in 2008, I think both McCain and Romney were really desperate to win the nomination, whereas the others were more meh about it.

That's why I think, even if he runs, Bush will underperform expectations.  He doesn't want it badly enough.  In contrast, I think Rubio, who really seems desperate to win, is probably underestimated around here (though not underestimated in the betting markets).

[RogueBeaver]

Completely agreed. I'd wonder where the Cheeseheads fit on enthusiasm. Cillizza did write a few months ago that some Pubs saw Walker as short on the required sizzle.

[Mr. Morden]

Completely agreed. I'd wonder where the Cheeseheads fit on enthusiasm. Cillizza did write a few months ago that some Pubs saw Walker as short on the required sizzle.

Ryan does not seem that enthusiastic.  Walker is hard to read, because he's got to prioritize reelection for now.  But my hunch is that he's actually pretty eager.  Moreso than, say, Pence, who also seems like someone who's only ready to run if there's the right opening.  If you're only ready to run if there's just the right opening, then you probably aren't motivated enough to win.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of cheese: Ryan is making a surprise appearance at the IA Faith & Freedom Coalition. Article.

[ShadowRocket]

Yeah, I've thought for awhile that Jeb is the weakest candidate the party establishment could put forward. While he has similar problems, at least Christie has some campaign talent and the aura of personality. And guys like Walker and Pence can appeal to the base without scaring the establishment.

Bluntly expressing support for things like immigration reform and Common Core while not caring whether the rank-and-file find that acceptable or not is not a recipe for success in a GOP primary nowadays.

[RogueBeaver]

DMR on tonight's FFC. Cruz, Jindal and Ryan spoke.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo's been making some foreign trips, most recently Afghanistan, which has prompted some presidential speculation:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/219094-gov-cuomos-surprise-afghanistan-visit-fuels-16-talk

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

No Ryan announcent?