The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Dole wants Romney to run again:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/dole-romney-run-2016-26496223

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[politicus]

Romney/Dole 2016!

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley made a recent trip to South Carolina to campaign for Sheheen:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/us/a-clinton-loyalist-now-a-potential-alternative.html?_r=0

Also from that story:

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[RogueBeaver]

So The Advocate contradicts NR: Jindal is 5'11" and 156 lbs.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin says she's hoping to run for office again at some point:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/sarah-palin-run-for-office_n_6063228.html

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Gillibrand says that it's "vital" that a woman is elected president in 2016:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/kirsten-gillibrand-it-s-vital-that-a-woman-becomes-president-in-2016-20141028

(Really?  Even if it's Sarah Palin?)

[New_Conservative]

Palin says she's hoping to run for office again at some point:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/sarah-palin-run-for-office_n_6063228.html

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Gillibrand says that it's "vital" that a woman is elected president in 2016:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/kirsten-gillibrand-it-s-vital-that-a-woman-becomes-president-in-2016-20141028

(Really?  Even if it's Sarah Palin?)

Palin won't make it through New Hampshire, I don't care if she runs, her campaign will be a failure from the beginning.

[IceSpear]

Palin says she's hoping to run for office again at some point:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/28/sarah-palin-run-for-office_n_6063228.html

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ROFLMAO!

This deserves its own thread.

[Mr. Morden]

National Journal examines the moves of Evangelical leaders to try to coalesce behind one candidate this time....with Cruz and Huckabee deemed the frontrunners to receive such an endorsement:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/ted-cruz-and-mike-huckabee-are-on-a-collision-course-as-evangelicals-audition-2016-contenders-20141025

While Cruz's ambitions have already been made fairly clear, note how they're also more or less treating it as a given that Huckabee will run:

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[New_Conservative]

National Journal examines the moves of Evangelical leaders to try to coalesce behind one candidate this time....with Cruz and Huckabee deemed the frontrunners to receive such an endorsement:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/ted-cruz-and-mike-huckabee-are-on-a-collision-course-as-evangelicals-audition-2016-contenders-20141025

While Cruz's ambitions have already been made fairly clear, note how they're also more or less treating it as a given that Huckabee will run:

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Disgusting. Cruz is bad enough, but Huckabee getting involved is terrible. The good news about all these Evangelicals running is that hopefully they will all split the hard-right vote, preventing them from competing with the establishment candidate(s).

[morgieb]

The Republican primary fight's gonna be fun.

[Consciously Unconscious]

National Journal examines the moves of Evangelical leaders to try to coalesce behind one candidate this time....with Cruz and Huckabee deemed the frontrunners to receive such an endorsement:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/ted-cruz-and-mike-huckabee-are-on-a-collision-course-as-evangelicals-audition-2016-contenders-20141025

While Cruz's ambitions have already been made fairly clear, note how they're also more or less treating it as a given that Huckabee will run:

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Disgusting. Cruz is bad enough, but Huckabee getting involved is terrible. The good news about all these Evangelicals running is that hopefully they will all split the hard-right vote, preventing them from competing with the establishment candidate(s).

That's what I'm hoping too.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence reiterates that he won't make up his mind about a presidential run until after Indiana's legislative session ends at the end of April:

link

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Jeb Bush says that you shouldn't take George P.'s comments (suggesting that a Jeb candidacy is likely) seriously:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/jeb-bush-my-son-didnt-talk-me-making-2016-guess-n237176

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[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like Biden will not announce his 2016 intentions until the summer:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/joe-biden-2016-elections-112328.html?hp=f1

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This is in keeping with what I posted here back in February:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187658.0

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan sounds more bullish than, well, ever.

[Mr. Morden]

More great stats from US News on candidate visits to IA/NH/SC since Jan. 1, 2013.  First, number of *events* each prospective candidate has held in those three states:

https://github.com/lindzcook/USNCampaignTracker



Here is a timeline of those events:



However, some of those were on multi-day trips, and a trip could include many events.  So if we just count individual trips, then it looks like:



And breaking it down among the three states:

[New_Conservative]

I'm surprised that there is doubt that Martin O'Malley is running.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm surprised that there is doubt that Martin O'Malley is running.

The doubt is well-justified, IMHO, because, despite what he says publicly, we keep getting statements on background from people in his political orbit that suggest that he's only laying this presidential groundwork to set himself up as a fallback option if Clinton doesn't run.  E.g.:

link

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And then:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/hillary-clinton-donors-2016-elections-111622.html?hp=t1

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There are several more such examples, but I'm too lazy to dig them all up. 

[© tweed]

there are examples of prospective candidates spending time "laying groundwork" before deciding the uphill battle isn't worth it.

I guess Hillary doesn't have to go do these things herself, she has a network of middlemen.  and I guess Romney's appearances have been solely on behalf of 2014 GOP candidates (and private tea-and-crumpets with money men)?

[Mr. Morden]

The Des Moines Register has just launched its 2016 caucuses website:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucuses/

from which they'll be tracking all the candidate activity in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Speaking of which…..Santorum will be in Iowa on Saturday night:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/2014/10/31/santorum-iowa-republican-electiion/18234269/

[Mr. Morden]

And speaking of Santorum, I think I missed this story from a couple of weeks ago, in which he said this:

link

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Congrats Phil.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton's in New Hampshire today to campaign for Shaheen and Hassan:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/hillary-clinton-on-the-stump-for-new-hampshire-women-20141102

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum's 2016-themed comments in Iowa:

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/stumping-for-tuesday-santorum-hints-at/article_878e6e78-854a-51e1-9317-d3f74be095e2.html

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-02/clinton-allies-resist-calls-to-jump-early-into-2016-race.html

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[IceSpear]

Hillary announcing before the SOTU would be dumb.