The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[NewYorkExpress]

Rubio and Ryan will release a healthcare plan soon.

Haha I'll believe it when I see it.

Technically, die quickly is a healthcare plan. It's not a very good one, but it still counts.

[Mr. Morden]

"Mike Huckabee rebuilds political team with an eye on another presidential run"

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In the same article, his daughter Sarah is quoted as saying “He is personally engaged and more aggressive in taking on meetings. He can’t wait to get back to South Carolina and Iowa.”

Meanwhile, following on Fox News's termination of Ben Carson's contract because of his running a pseudo-presidential campaign, they're now "evaluating Huckabee's status":

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2014/11/12/huckabee-2016-president-fox-news/

Evaluating his status?  Does that mean that they suspect him of being an illegal immigrant?  No.  Just a stealth presidential candidate who might give them trouble with the FEC:

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[morgieb]

Yeah Huckabee is clearly running. Commiserations, Phil.

[New_Conservative]

"Mike Huckabee rebuilds political team with an eye on another presidential run"

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In the same article, his daughter Sarah is quoted as saying “He is personally engaged and more aggressive in taking on meetings. He can’t wait to get back to South Carolina and Iowa.”

Meanwhile, following on Fox News's termination of Ben Carson's contract because of his running a pseudo-presidential campaign, they're now "evaluating Huckabee's status":

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2014/11/12/huckabee-2016-president-fox-news/

Evaluating his status?  Does that mean that they suspect him of being an illegal immigrant?  No.  Just a stealth presidential candidate who might give them trouble with the FEC:

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Damn it

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz supporters are launching a pro-Cruz Super PAC:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/three-top-gop-candidates-just-took-major-steps-towards-2016-2014-11

More Carly Fiorina chatter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-13/another-woman-may-be-running-for-president-in-2016

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[Mr. Morden]

NBC News divides up the GOP candidates into various stages of whether they're already running or not.  They say you've got five candidates effectively already running, though one of those is Carson, who may or may not be serious about it:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/no-announcements-yet-plenty-gop-2016-hopefuls-are-already-running-n246386

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Then you've got the next tier of people, who have built up some of the infrastructure, but are seen as being in more of a holding pattern, as they decide what to do.  These are identified as:

Walker
Bush
Huckabee
Rubio
Jindal

And then a third group, "Republicans say another bloc of potential candidates could emerge, particularly if major figures like Bush or Huckabee either don’t run or struggle on the campaign trail".  This group includes:

Kasich
Pence
Portman
Ryan
Santorum

Odd that Santorum would be listed as being in the final category, given the high number of early state visits he's made, but whatevs.

Also, no love for John Bolton?  He doesn't even qualify for the third tier?

[BaconBacon96]

Santorum and Bolton should be in the second tier, obviously.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just can't wait for a Santorum-Christie debate with Phil as the moderator.

[Mr. Morden]

Portman says he will decide on whether to make a 2016 presidential run "after the first of the year":

http://www.wlwt.com/news/rob-portman-for-president-in-2016/29726636

McAuliffe predicts that Clinton will decide by mid-January:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/11/14/terry-mcauliffe-60-days-until-hillary-decision

[Mr. Morden]

Pence says he's not interested in heading the RGA:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/mike-pence-no-republican-governors-association-chairman-112909.html?hp=l6_4

[Could be a sign of wanting to keep his options open for a possible presidential run.]

Meanwhile, the big Paul summit just happened:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/rand-paul-2016-election-plans-112896.html?ml=po

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Again, Paul running in the primary for both president and Senate in tandem requires some kind of change to either Kentucky law or GOP delegate selection rules in Kentucky.  It sounds like they may go for the latter option, since that's something that the Kentucky GOP can control on their own, without any help from Democrats:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188624.msg4370861#msg4370861

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio will decide early next year, no one has a bead on Jeb's intentions.

[Keystone Phil]

I just can't wait for a Santorum-Christie debate with Phil as the moderator.

The two pals will be cordial and unite against the Force of Evil in the race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just can't wait for a Santorum-Christie debate with Phil as the moderator.

The two pals will be cordial and unite against the Force of Evil in the race.

Now, aren't you a little hyperbolic about Rand?

[NewYorkExpress]

I just can't wait for a Santorum-Christie debate with Phil as the moderator.

The two pals will be cordial and unite against the Force of Evil in the race.

Now, aren't you a little hyperbolic about Rand?

He was talking about Hillary/Walker.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/bobby-jindal-2016-election-112938.html

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[RogueBeaver]

Christie visiting Canada.

[Mr. Morden]

Walker, on whether he might run for prez:

http://fox6now.com/2014/11/16/a-one-on-one-interview-governor-walker-talks-about-his-bald-spot-his-family-and-2016/

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[RogueBeaver]

Santorum to decide by next June.

Jeb hosting fundraiser for, among others, NRSC and Cassidy.

[Keystone Phil]

I just can't wait for a Santorum-Christie debate with Phil as the moderator.

The two pals will be cordial and unite against the Force of Evil in the race.

Now, aren't you a little hyperbolic about Rand?

He was talking about Hillary/Walker.

No, I wasn't.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum to decide by next June.

To be clear, what he says is this:

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Except, the "real" beginning of the campaign is when you set up your exploratory committee, and Santorum did that in April 2011.

[Mr. Morden]

Carly Fiorina says publicly for the first time that she's thinking about running in 2016:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/pause-reflect-ex-hp-ceo-carly-fiorina-mulling-presidential-run-n249621

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As previously noted in this thread, she made various trips to the early primary states in the lead up to the midterms, which raised some eyebrows, but I think this is her first admission that a presidential run is something she's thinking about.

Demon Sheep 2016! 

[New_Conservative]

Carly Fiorina says publicly for the first time that she's thinking about running in 2016:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/pause-reflect-ex-hp-ceo-carly-fiorina-mulling-presidential-run-n249621

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As previously noted in this thread, she made various trips to the early primary states in the lead up to the midterms, which raised some eyebrows, but I think this is her first admission that a presidential run is something she's thinking about.

Demon Sheep 2016! 

I like her, but her lack of political experience will probably lead to her demise. She doesn't have the same grassroots support as someone like Ben Carson, so I think her campaign would be pretty irrelevant.

[Mr. Morden]

She doesn't have the same grassroots support as someone like Ben Carson, so I think her campaign would be pretty irrelevant.

It's only November 2014, and hardly anyone knows who she is yet.  The question isn't how much grassroots support she has now, but how much we think she'll have one year from now, should she run.

If she were to run, the fact that she'd be the only woman in the field (in a race that would likely be for the right to face off against another woman in the general election) would surely be enough to generate a good deal of media attention.  But yeah, is she a good enough politician to capitalize on that media attention?  Probably not.  But honestly, who knows?

One question: How big is her fortune?  Would she self-fund if she runs?

[New_Conservative]

She doesn't have the same grassroots support as someone like Ben Carson, so I think her campaign would be pretty irrelevant.

It's only November 2014, and hardly anyone knows who she is yet.  The question isn't how much grassroots support she has now, but how much we think she'll have one year from now, should she run.

If she were to run, the fact that she'd be the only woman in the field (in a race that would likely be for the right to face off against another woman in the general election) would surely be enough to generate a good deal of media attention.  But yeah, is she a good enough politician to capitalize on that media attention?  Probably not.  But honestly, who knows?

One question: How big is her fortune?  Would she self-fund if she runs?

She will probably have to self-fund for her campaign. I don't see a lot of donors, except for maybe Silicone Valley, just because of her ties with the industry. But Silicone Valley seems to be backing Rand Paul. (http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-is-rand-paul-opening-an-office-in-silicon-valley-20140923)

She is worth up to $120 million, so she has plenty of cash to fund her campaign, I don't know if she will be willing to though.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I just looked it up.  According to this:

http://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/ceos/carly-fiorina-net-worth/

her net worth is $80 million.  So not really enough to fund a serious nationwide presidential primary campaign unless she wants to bankrupt herself.  I doubt she's eager to blow half her fortune on a longshot presidential campaign.  So if she runs, she could kick in a little money for her campaign, but the majority of the $ would presumably come from fundraising.

Romney's net worth is $250 million, and he still raised the majority of his campaign $ for both primary campaigns the old fashioned way.