The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[politicus]

Potential GOP candidates with books coming out in the next eight months or so:

http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/25/these-potential-presidential-candidates-have-books-coming-out-next-year/

Rubio: “American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone”, Jan. 15 release date
Huckabee: "God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy", Jan. 20 release date
Cruz: [no title yet], May 12 release date
Fiorina: "Rising to the Challenge", unspecified May release date
Paul: “Taking a Stand: Moving Beyond Partisan Politics to Unite America”, June 2 release date

Bush, Carson, Santorum, and Walker already have recent books from the last year or so.

Huck's got the best title.

[Vega]

Potential GOP candidates with books coming out in the next eight months or so:

http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/25/these-potential-presidential-candidates-have-books-coming-out-next-year/

Rubio: “American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone”, Jan. 15 release date
Huckabee: "God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy", Jan. 20 release date
Cruz: [no title yet], May 12 release date
Fiorina: "Rising to the Challenge", unspecified May release date
Paul: “Taking a Stand: Moving Beyond Partisan Politics to Unite America”, June 2 release date

Bush, Carson, Santorum, and Walker already have recent books from the last year or so.

Huck's got the best title.

Sounds like a parody.

[IceSpear]

Rubio's seems like it was written by Gene Eric Republican, but Cruz's is most representative of the Republican Party platform.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/rick-perry-2016-campaign-113210.html?hp=t2_r

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The story also notes that Perry has already been receiving "twice-a-week briefings on different policy areas for months", to get him up to speed on national issues.

[ShadowRocket]

Nothing really new, but the Hill did a ranking for the GOP:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/225441-13-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-white-house

[Mr. Morden]

Bob Ehrlich visiting NH was mentioned in this thread back in September.  Looks like he's made a few other visits there this year:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/ehrlich-returns-to-new-hampshire-but-says-there-is-no-grand-scheme-to-his-travel/2014/11/07/1f20bc9c-66cf-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.html

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Then this WSJ story talks about some of the unconventional 2016 contenders, including Ehrlich, Fiorina, and Pataki:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/open-gop-field-draws-long-shot-bids-1417390219

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Meanwhile, Deval Patrick again rules out running in 2016:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/30/gov-deval-patrick-says-he-wont-enter-2016-presidential-race/

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[Mr. Morden]

More Pataki:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/pataki-exploring-2016-prez-bid-article-1.2028483

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[RogueBeaver]

Hillary adding more speeches to next year's calendar.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary adding more speeches to next year's calendar.

Hmmm...

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So I guess no campaign launch until at least the end of Feb.?

[Mr. Morden]

Bush:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeb-bush-says-hell-make-a-2016-decision-in-short-order/

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At the same event, Bush urged congressional Republicans to "try to forge consensus with Democrats in the congress, and they should start passing bills."

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary adding more speeches to next year's calendar.

Hmmm...

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So I guess no campaign launch until at least the end of Feb.?

She needs to give more $300,000 speeches because she's dead broke.

[PPT Spiral]

Count Portman out, according to Politico.

[Tender Branson]

Hillary adding more speeches to next year's calendar.

Hmmm...

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So I guess no campaign launch until at least the end of Feb.?

She could also announce in September or October ...

I mean she's 100% inevitable, right ? #HillaryAbove60% !!! Who can beat her ?

Why would she announce in February already if she's unbeatable anyway ?

[Averroës Nix]

How much credence is there to the idea that speaking engagements are often a way of getting around campaign finance laws? That could have something to do with it, although it's not as if she needs to announce before spring.

[Beet]

How much credence is there to the idea that speaking engagements are often a way of getting around campaign finance laws? That could have something to do with it, although it's not as if she needs to announce before spring.

At the rate of 14 delivered or scheduled so far over the past year or so, at $250,000 per speech, that amounts to $3.5 million total - in contrast, in 2007 she was raising north of $20 million per quarter. From a financial standpoint her best bet would be to announce as early as possible so she would have the most fundraising quarters under her belt as possible.

[Averroës Nix]

How much credence is there to the idea that speaking engagements are often a way of getting around campaign finance laws? That could have something to do with it, although it's not as if she needs to announce before spring.

At the rate of 14 delivered or scheduled so far over the past year or so, at $250,000 per speech, that amounts to $3.5 million total - in contrast, in 2007 she was raising north of $20 million per quarter. From a financial standpoint her best bet would be to announce as early as possible so she would have the most fundraising quarters under her belt as possible.

It came out just last week that UCLA paid Clinton $300k to speak - and that was, according to UCLA staff, the "special university rate."

[Beet]

How much credence is there to the idea that speaking engagements are often a way of getting around campaign finance laws? That could have something to do with it, although it's not as if she needs to announce before spring.

At the rate of 14 delivered or scheduled so far over the past year or so, at $250,000 per speech, that amounts to $3.5 million total - in contrast, in 2007 she was raising north of $20 million per quarter. From a financial standpoint her best bet would be to announce as early as possible so she would have the most fundraising quarters under her belt as possible.

It came out just last week that UCLA paid Clinton $300k to speak - and that was, according to UCLA staff, the "special university rate."

So? At the rate of 14 per year at $300,000 per speech, that's still only $4.2 million per year. In the first quarter of 2007, Hillary raised $25 million, as one of three major candidates. She would have to give 83 speeches per quarter (nearly one per day) at $300,000 to match that.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan says again he'll decide next year.

[retromike22]

Something tells me Ben Carson's foreign policy knowledge is going to be similarly disastrous (but not quite as bad) as Sarah Palin.

I think he'll remind me of Herman Cain:

CAIN: I’m ready for the ‘gotcha’ questions and they’re already starting to come. And when they ask me who is the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan I’m going to say, you know, I don’t know. Do you know?

http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/10/09/339879/cain-uzbekistan-beki-beki-stan-stan/

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Something tells me Ben Carson's foreign policy knowledge is going to be similarly disastrous (but not quite as bad) as Sarah Palin.

I think he'll remind me of Herman Cain:

CAIN: I’m ready for the ‘gotcha’ questions and they’re already starting to come. And when they ask me who is the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan I’m going to say, you know, I don’t know. Do you know?

http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/10/09/339879/cain-uzbekistan-beki-beki-stan-stan/

I'm no fan of Carson, but the cliche that Carson is Cain 2.0 needs to die. Say what you want about Carson, but he is very articulate.

[Mr. Morden]

As noted in another thread, Paul has announced that he's running for Senate.  Will he also run for president?  He says that that decision is 4-6 months away:

http://www.kentucky.com/2014/12/01/3570073_citing-unfinished-business-rand.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&rh=1

Latest from Jeb Bush:

link

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And then there's Gingrich:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/02/politics/republicans-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico notes how Clinton looks to be in no rush to enter the race early….if at all:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-113285.html

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The Des Moines Register does its own count of the number of events each GOP candidate has done in Iowa since the 2012 election:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2014/11/29/iowa-caucuses-republicans-appearances/19691085/

[candidate name: # of trips]

Perry: 33
Paul: 25
Santorum: 19
Cruz: 12
Jindal: 10
Christie: 8
Rubio: 8
Huckabee: 7
Portman: 7
Carson: 6
Ryan: 4
Romney: 4
Walker: 3
Pence: 1
Bush: 0

Jindal's PAC concentrated most of its 2014 donations to candidates in states with early presidential primaries:

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/gov_jindal_concentrates_his_pa.html

Meanwhile, Kasich is about to launch a national tour….but won't be visiting IA or NH:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/12/gov_john_kasich_is_about_to_la.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's a list of what all the potential GOP candidates have said recently about whether they might run:

http://time.com/3614418/republican-candidates-2016/

O'Malley hires Bill de Blasio's campaign manager:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/martin-omalley-bill-hyers-2016-elections-113301.html?hp=b2_c1

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Finally, Carson says the deadline for him making a decision on whether to run for president is May 1:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/ben-carson-white-house-113305.html?hp=b2_c2

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton has met with potential campaign managers:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/clinton-2016-campaign-manager-guy-cecil-113314.html?hp=l1_3

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[Mr. Morden]

More Bob Ehrlich:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-ehrlich-presidential-20141202-story.html#page=1

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And Peter King is once again talking about running:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/12/04/peter-king-2016-presidential-candidate/19832453/

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