PVI's of Virginia House of Delegates districts

[Mr.Phips]

Here are the PVI's(Partisan Voting Indexes) for all 100 of the Virginia House of Delegate districts based on the three 2009 statewide elections:

1.  Terry Kilgore(R) R+16
2.  Mark Dudenhefer(R) D+2 Mismatch R
3.  Will Morefield(R) R+11
4.  Joe Johnson(D) R+10 Mismatch D
5.  Isreal O'Quinn(R) R+16
6.  Anne Crockett-Stark(R) R+13
7.  Nick Rush(R) R+6
8.  Greg Habeeb(R) R+9
9.  Charles Poindexter(R) R+9
10.  Randy Minshew(R) R+3
11.  Onslee Ware(D) D+13
12.  Joseph Yost(R) D+7 Mismatch R
13.  Bob Marshall(R) R+2
14.  Danny Marshall(R) R+4
15.  Todd Gilbert(R) R+14
16.  Don Merricks(R) R+6
17.  Chris Head(R) R+8
18.  Mike Webert(R) R+8
19.  Lacey Putney(R/I) R+5
20.  Dicky Bell(R) R+9
21.  Ron Villeneuva(R) R+4
22.  Kathy Byron(R) R+12
23.  Scott Garrett(R) R+12
24.  Ben Cline(R) R+6
25.  Steve Landes(R) R+11
26.  Tony Wilt(R) R+12
27.  Roxanne Robinson(R) R+6
28.  Bill Howell(R) R+4
29.  Beverly Sherwood(R) R+11
30.  Ed Scott(R) R+9
31.  Scott Lingamfelter(R) R+1
32.  Tag Greason(R) R+2
33.  Joe May(R) R+7
34.  Barbara Comstock(R) D+3 Mismatch R
35.  Mark Keam(D) D+10
36.  Ken Plum(D) D+18
37.  David Bulova(D) D+7
38.  Kaye Kory(D) D+16
39.  Vivian Watts(D) D+10
40.  Tim Hugo(R) R+5
41.  Eileen Filler-Corn(D) D+7
42.  Dave Albo(R) D+2 Mismatch R
43.  Mark Sickles(D) D+14
44.  Scott Surovell(D) D+14
45.  Rob Krupicka(D) D+22
46.  Charniele Herring(D) D+23
47.  Patrick Hope(D) D+26
48.  Bob Brink(D) D+20
49.  Alfonso Lopez(D) D+26
50.  Jackson Miller(R) R+3
51.  Rich Anderson(R) R+2
52.  Luke Torian(D) D+13
53.  Jim Scott(D) D+18
54.  Bobby Orrock(R) R+6
55.  John Cox(R) R+9
56.  Peter Farrell(R) R+12
57.  David Toscano(D) D+24
58.  Rob Bell(R) R+7
59.  Matt Farris(R) R+9
60.  James Edmunds(R) R+5
61.  Tommy Wright(R) R+8
62.  Riley Ingraham(R) R+7
63.  Roselyn Dance(D) D+18
64.  Richard Morris(R) R+7
65.  Lee Ware(R) R+14
66.  Kirk Cox(R) R+16
67.  Jim LeMunyon(R) D+1 R Mismatch
68.  Manoli Loupassi(R) R+5
69. Betsy Carr(D) D+34
70.  Dolores McQuinn(D) D+27
71.  Jennifer McClellan(D) D+37
72.  Jimmy Massie(R) R+7
73.  John O'Bannon(R) R+7
74.  Joe Morrissey(D) D+24
75.  Roslyn Tyler(D) D+9
76.  Chris Jones(R) R+4
77.  Lionel Spriull(D) D+24
78.  John Cosgrove(R) R+10
79.  Johnny Joannuh(D) D+11
80.  
81.  Barry Knight(R) R+7
82.  Bob Purkey(R) R+6
83.  Chris Stolle(R) R+2
84.  Sal Iaquinto(R) R+4
85.  Bob Tata(R) R+3
86.  Tom Rust(R) D+7 Mismatch R
87.  David Ramadan(R) D+0  Mismatch R
88.  Mark Cole(R) R+9
89.  Ken Alexander(R) D+31
90.  Algie Howell(D) D+24
91.  Gordon Heisel(R) R+6
92.  Jeion Ward(D) D+18
93.  Mike Watson(R) D+5 Mismatch R
94.  David Yancey(R) R+1
95.  Mamye Bacote(D) D+25
96.  Brenda Pogge(R) R+8
97.  Chris Peace(R) R+19
98.  Keith Hodges(R) R+9
99.  Margaret Ransone(R) R+7
100.  Lynood Lewis(D) D+2

The margin currently stands at 67R-32D and looking at these districts, Democrats have nowhere to go but up in the chamber.  They only hold one district with a Republican PVI. 

The key to making gains here is to target Republicans in the "mismatch districts".  Unfortunately for Democrats, there are only eight such Republicans.  Getting these districts, while dropping their sole Republican leaning district would mean a Republian margin in the chamber of 60R-39D. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I assume Joe Johnson is in the southwest?

[Mr.Phips]

I assume Joe Johnson is in the southwest?

Yep, and the only Democrat left in a district with an R PVI. 

[Skill and Chance]

What do they need to take control?  Probably something like a D+10 generic ballot?

[Benj]

What do they need to take control?  Probably something like a D+10 generic ballot?

There are 17 Republicans in R+1 to R+5 seats. After taking all of the "mismatched" seats (and dropping their mismatched seat), the Democrats only need 11 more.

[Skill and Chance]

You know, if VA Dems ever do get a trifecta, the first order of business should be moving the state level and legislative elections from odd to even years, with the statewide offices on the presidential cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

You know, if VA Dems ever do get a trifecta, the first order of business should be moving the state level and legislative elections from odd to even years, with the statewide offices on the presidential cycle.

Why dont they move the statewide office elections in Illinois to Presidential years?