The 2012 "Nail biter" had no 40% states.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:08:33 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The 2012 "Nail biter" had no 40% states.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The 2012 "Nail biter" had no 40% states.  (Read 1687 times)
LiberalJunkie
LiberalJunkie99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 670
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 18, 2012, 11:43:37 PM »

It usually happens when it's a landslide but not this time.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2012, 11:51:57 PM »

It's especially weird because third parties are comparatively stronger than in 2008 and 2004, both of which had 4 of these. I think that says much about Obama's "firewall" in close elections.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2012, 11:22:27 PM »

None? That's a shock.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2012, 11:34:10 PM »

Dave will probably start adding write-ins to the totals once we have final results certified, which would likely drag states like Florida down into >40% territory.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2012, 11:35:45 PM »

Dave will probably start adding write-ins to the totals once we have final results certified, which would likely drag states like Florida down into >40% territory.

And add one point to my prediction score! Smiley

But honestly, I'd rather have Obama win >50%, for the symbolism.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2012, 11:44:21 PM »

Yeah, I had a thread on this here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165104.0

Only 5 states were decided by 5 points or less....which is a record low for such a close election.  The 1976 election had a whopping 20 states decided by 5 points or less (including CA, TX, and NY!), so things have changed quite a bit in the last few decades.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2012, 12:40:04 AM »

good for me cause I (under normal circumstances) never choose the 40% option on the prediction drop-down, figuring it's a long shot.
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2012, 12:47:16 AM »

Considering it was a landslide I'm surprised.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2012, 01:37:19 AM »

I bet Florida will drop below 50% after the write-ins are added.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2012, 09:58:29 AM »

It was basically a landslide like that for LBJ 1964 in 26 states and DC...and for Nixon in 1972 in 24 states. America is that regionally polarized.

As it turns out, the nail-biting was all about five states, all of which Romney had to win and one of which Obama had to win. Ohio and Virginia count their votes quickly except in the most urban of areas, so once the returns in Ohio and Virginia had small leads for President Obama with a uncounted precincts in greater Cleveland, Richmond, and some DC suburbs it was over. If Ohio wasn't called as early as it was, then Colorado and Nevada would have won it for the President.

A challenger against an incumbent or a candidate running for an open seat tries to broaden the field of contest; an incumbent tries to narrow the field. In 2008 President Obama contested Indiana, taking advantage of the weaknesses of the Republicans in the state that year; in 2012 he had better uses of campaign resources and had to use them more objectively. 
Logged
Chaddyr23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2012, 01:39:34 PM »

Florida already certified their results. So PBO wins 50.01% in FL
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2012, 03:31:41 PM »

That number only includes 45 write-ins.

Miami-Dade County alone had 882 write-ins.

Dave added write-ins by county last time if he had to. I remember because it dragged King County from >70% Obama to only 69.97% Obama.
Logged
dadge
Rookie
**
Posts: 49
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -4.50

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2012, 09:20:38 PM »

If Florida's certified the results and ignored the write-ins, they don't count, surely? Neither Dave nor anyone else can add them. They're non-votes. They're chad.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 13 queries.