French referendum: exit poll in details

[Umengus]

The last poll (harris poll) gives the "yes" at 61% but it's a fall compared to 69% in october. Every polls show a fall of the "yes" (+-70% last year, +-60% today). It's not a surprise: for the maastricht referendum, the "yes" had begun at 70% to finish at... 51%.

The referendum will occur in a few months.

A good link (if you don't understand french, jus look at the graphics. It's clear...): http://www.bva.fr/new/Baro%20politique%20050117.pdf

[Umengus]

A new poll:

CSA, 2 & 3 february, 800
 
"Do you approve the EU constitution?"

(between () the old results, the extreme right result is the oldest)

- yes    60 (65/69/63/67/69)
- no     40 (35/31/37/33/31)

-abstention,... 54 (61)

Details (be careful, the size of groups is small)

               Expressed yes  No  (Abstention, blank vote or not valid) 
                      %         %    %     %

ALL               100         60   40     54 

Sex         
- man           100          62    38    45 
- woman      100           58   42     61 

Age         
- 18 à 24 y   100           57    43    53 
- 25 à 34 y   100           56    44    65 
- 35 à 49 y   100           53    47    53 
- 50 à 64 y   100           62    38    49 
- 65 ans y     100           70    30    52 

Profession         
- Farmers      100   52  48  63 
- Owners of the companies  100  58  42  54 
- Executives, liberal profession  100  71  29  46 
- Profession intermédiaire  100  57  43  46 
- Employed  100  42  58  61 
- workers 100  55  45  59 
- pensioners/unemployers  100  65  35  54

Comments

-The problem is that I don't know the proportion of each class in the french society. Moreover, everyone doesn't agree about it.

-The surprise is to see "workers", "farmers" and "65+" still in favor of EU constitution. The day of the vote, I bet that it will be not the case (for workers).

-The momentum is in favor of the "no", as in 1992.

-French pollsters say that the "no"  has more reserves than the "yes" (in others terms, abstentionnists prefer the "no").

-The referendum will occur in june.

[Umengus]

A new poll

BVA, 7 & 9 february, 1082

1) QUESTION "Do you approve the EU constitution?"

-yes: 58 (63)
-no: 42 (37)

No votes given: 34 (37)

2) DETAILS

            yes      no   yes-no

all         58       42    +16

A) BY SEX
men      56       44    +12
women 60       40    +20


B) By Jobs
craftsmen / small tradesmen / owners of the companies / the senior executives / liberal jobs   51 49 +2
intermediate profession 50 50 =
Employed 60 40 +20
workers 58 42 +16
without jobs 63 37 +26

C) BY STATUTE

Private job 37 63 -26
Public job 62 38 +24
work for him 50 50 =
unemployed 73 27 +46
Inactive 63 37 +26

D) BY THE LAST DIPLOMA OBTAINED
Inférieur au Bac 57 43 +14
Bac et plus 59 41 +18

E) BY PARTISANSHIP

LO + LCR + PC (extreme left) 41 59 -18
Parti Socialiste 66 34 +32
Les Verts 71 29 +42
UDF 73 27 +46
UMP 76 24 +52
FN + MNR (extreme right) 26 74 -48
No parties 47 53 -6


3) My COMMENTS

A) The fall of the "yes" is confirmed and the momentum is in favor of  "no".

B) I have problems with some results of this poll concerning workers and employed. In 1992, they voted against the treaty of Maastricht...

[Gustaf]

Umengus, am I right in thinking that the numbers for yes and no are in % of those who have an opinion, that is minus the abstentions (who=undecideds?)?

Thus I get something along the lines of:

Yes: 40%

No: 27%

Undecideds: 33%

Would that be correct?

[Umengus]

Umengus, am I right in thinking that the numbers for yes and no are in % of those who have an opinion, that is minus the abstentions (who=undecideds?)?

Thus I get something along the lines of:

Yes: 40%

No: 27%

Undecideds: 33%

Would that be correct?

An ifop poll (3 & 4 february879) gave:

yes: 25%
no: 20%
undecideds: 46%
abstention: 9%

It's a way to make... But I think that others polls try to push the undecideds and, in fact, ifop too: Ifop says 44% of undecideds say to tend towards the "yes", 28% to tend towards the "no" 28% to tend towards abstention.

Hence:

-yes: 25%+20,24%=45,24%
-no: 20%+12,88=32,88%
-abstention: 9%+12,88%= 21,88%

The abstention doesn't count, hence:

-yes: 45/78= 57%
-no: 32/78= 43%           

The fall of the "yes"...

[Umengus]

2 last polls

1) Sofres

9,10 march size: 1000

A) Are you interested by the referendum?

yes: 47%
no: 53%

B) Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 56%
no: 44%

no votes expressed: 37%

C) Are you sure of your opinion?

yes: 64% (76% for "yes" and 82% for "no")
no: 34% (23% for yes and 17% for no)

D) Who will win?

"yes" in a landslide: 13%
short win of the "yes": 55%
short win of the "no": 8%
"no" in a landslide: 5%

no opinion: 19%

2) BVA

7,9 march size: unknow

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 56% (-2%)
no: 44% (+2%)

undecided: 42%

turnout: 68%

[Umengus]

And now the first poll which shows a "no" win

CSA, 16 & 17 march, 802

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 49% (-14)
no: 51% (+14)

abstention, blank,...53% (-6)

Details on http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2005/opi20050317a.pdf


1) It's the panic among "yes" supporters.
2) This poll has a great publicity in France (it opens somes TV news). And I think that the campaign has just started. 
3) Why a surge of the "no"? because of th Bolkestein directive and the social protestation against liberalism. You can indeed observe that the rise of the "yes" is among left voters (59% of socialist are against, before it was 60% of socialists in favor of the constitution.). Too, this poll seems to me a little outlier... but it's the newest. Then...

[Bono]

And now the first poll which shows a "no" win

CSA, 16 & 17 march, 802

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 49% (-14)
no: 51% (+14)

abstention, blank,...53% (-6)

Details on http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2005/Les_intentions_de_vote_au_referendum_europeen.pdf


1) It's the panic among "yes" supporters.
2) This poll has a great publicity in France (it opens somes TV news). And I think that the campaign has just started. 
3) Why a surge of the "no"? because of th Bolkestein directive and the social protestation against liberalism. You can indeed observe that the rise of the "yes" is among left voters (59% of socialist are against, before it was 60% of socialists in favor of the constitution.). Too, this poll seems to me a little outlier... but it's the newest. Then...

it's because of the new proposal by the european comission that would allow service providers to aply the labour and other sorts of laws  laws of their country of origin instead of the ones of the country in which they are providing the service, that was seen by unnions as a lopphole to destroy the providence state.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

18,19 march, 860

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 48% (-12)
no: 52% (+12)

24% refuse to give their vote (but will vote)

Turnout: 62%

DETAILS

1) left (socialist, green, communist,...): yes: 45% (-9)
                                                             no: 55% (+9)

2) right (UMP,UDF): yes:67% (-5)
                               no: 33% (+5)

3) "extreme right" (FN): yes: 14% (-34)
                                       no: 86% (+34) Be careful: The size is small for this subgroup!

[Umengus]

CSA poll

03/23 (after the EU council), 856

1) Do you approve the EU contitution?

yes: 45% (-4)
no: 55% (+4)

abstention, blank votes,...: 50% (-3)

DETAILS

-left: yes: 42% (-1)
         no: 58% (+1)

    -socialist: yes: 46%
                   no: 54%
    -green: yes: 45%
                no: 55%

-right: yes: 59% (-5)
           no: 41% (+5)

     -UDF: yes: 71%
               no: 29%
      -UMP: yes: 61%
               no: 39%

2) For the "no" voters, why do you want to vote "no"? (2 answers possible)

-Opposition to the Turquey in UE: 31%
-An Europe more social: 29%
-To want a renegociation: 26%
-General dissatisfaction: 22%
-A vote against Chirac and Raffarin: 20%
-against Europe: 15%
...


3) For the "yes" voters, why do you want to vote "yes"? (2 answers possible)

-In favor of Europe : 46%
-Important for Europe to have a constitution: 36%
-New rules needed because of the new members: 26%
- To maintain the influence of France: 19%
...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

03/15-18, 616 FARMERS

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 13% (-10)
-no: 30% (+9)
-Don't know: 42% (=)
-Abstention: 12% (-2)

[ATFFL]

When do they actually vote on this again?

[Umengus]

When do they actually vote on this again?

05/29

[Bono]

This is making me so happy.

[Notre Dame rules!]

What a turnabout in support!

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

March 25,26  sample: 944

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 46% (-2)
no: 54% (+2)
Don't know: 31% (+7?)

Turnout: 48% (-14?)

DETAILS

-left: yes: 42%
         no: 58%

       -PS (socialists): yes:47%
                                 no: 53%

-right: yes: 67%
           no: 33%

        -UMP (Presidential majority): yes: 70%
                                                       no: 30%

-"extreme right": yes: 20%
                            no: 80%


Is it your final vote?

-for "yes" voters: yes: 72%
                            no: 28%

-for "no" voters: yes: 70%
                           no: 30%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ipsos poll

March 25,26  sample: 944

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 46% (-2)
no: 54% (+2)
Don't know: 31% (+7?)

Turnout: 48% (-14?)

DETAILS

-left: yes: 42%
         no: 58%

       -PS (socialists): yes:47%
                                 no: 53%

-right: yes: 67%
           no: 33%

        -UMP (Presidential majority): yes: 70%
                                                       no: 30%

-"extreme right": yes: 20%
                            no: 80%


Is it your final vote?

-for "yes" voters: yes: 72%
                            no: 28%

-for "no" voters: yes: 70%
                           no: 30%

The right is more for it than the left? How weird. I guess French conservative = American Democrat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess French conservative = American Democrat.

No. No, no, no, no, no. And another no.

[Polkergeist]

Thanks for putting this up Umengus !

[Beet]

What would be the consequences of a failure of "Oui!"?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What would be the consequences of a failure of "Oui!"?

I think the whole thing would fall flat on it's face... and because France votes before the U.K it would save me having to waste valuable hours reading through the thing (I'm undecided how to vote on the E.U Constitution see...)

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

March 24 sample: 817

Do you approve the EU constitution?

yes: 47%
no: 53%

Do not decide: 18%

(I don't know abstention. +- 50% I suppose. Wait for more)

DETAILS

By party id:

PS (socialists): yes: 55%
                        no: 45%

UMP (right): yes: 77%
                    no: 23%

UDF (center-right): yes: 55%
                               no: 45%

Extreme left: yes: 34%
                      no: 66%

Communists: yes: 25%
                      no: 75%

Green: yes: 39%
            no: 61%

"Extreme right": yes: 26%
                           no: 74%

"No partisanship": yes: 30%
                              no: 70%

Are you sure of your vote?

yes: 54%
no: 46%

Who will win?

yes: 49%
no: 38%
Don't know: 13%

Methodology: by phone and sample selected by quotas (sex, age,...) method.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking close

[Umengus]

Looking close

and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

[Bono]

Looking close

and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex?