French referendum: exit poll in details
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  French referendum: exit poll in details
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Umengus
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« Reply #200 on: June 03, 2005, 04:57:57 AM »

Official results Referendum May 29

-Registered voters: 41 789 202 (100%)

-Turnout: 28 988 300 (69,37%)

-abstention: 12 800 902 (30,63%)

-not valid or blank votes: 730 522 (2,52%)

-Valid votes: 28 257 778 (97,48%)

yes: 12 808 270 (45,33%)
no: 15 449 508 (54,67%)


RECALL: Maastricht referendum 1992

-registered voters: 38 299 794 (100%)

-turnout: 26 696 626 (69,70%)

-abstention: 11 603 168 (30,3%)

-Not valid or blank votes: 904 451 (3,39%)

-Valid votes: 25 792 175

yes: 13 165 475 (51,04%)
no: 12 626 700 (48,96%)
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Umengus
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« Reply #201 on: June 03, 2005, 05:13:54 AM »

Best poll institutes (IMO)

1) Ipsos: very good job. Not a suprise, they did good job in 1995. Their last result was a no win with 55%. Just a problem with  turnout. Their polls were very complete and very accessible.

2) Ifop poll: good job too. Their last result was a no win with 56%. First to have seen the (last) no momentum.  Regionals polls were useful. No exit-poll on sunday.

3) CSA: first poll institute to give the no before the yes (and CSA is the poll institute who did the most surveys). But their last poll (a yes momentum) was... false. Great problem with turnout on sunday (82% said CSA!).

4) Sofres poll: Sofres has (or had) a bad reputation. Their polls were erratic and their last poll was false too. Good thing, Sofres has given the good turnout.


But a thing is sure, exit polls (Ipsos, sofres, CSA) were all correct (on reuslts). Appreciate that.

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Umengus
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« Reply #202 on: June 03, 2005, 05:18:21 AM »
« Edited: June 03, 2005, 05:57:17 AM by Umengus »

Exit-poll (Ipsos) (be careful, as usual...)

May 29, 3355

Meth: By phone,...


-yes: 45%
-no: 55%

1) By sex

-men: yes: 43%
          no: 57%

-women: yes: 47%
               no: 53%

2) By age

-18-24: yes: 44%
             no: 56%

-25-34: yes: 45%
             no: 55%

-35-44: yes: 39%
             no: 61%

-45-59: yes: 38%
             no: 62%

-60-69: yes: 56%
             no: 44%

-70+: yes: 58%
          no: 42%

3) By job

-Farmers: yes: 30%
                 no: 70%

-Craftsmen, tradesmen, boss: yes: 49%
                                                no: 51%

-liberal job, superior executives: yes: 65%
                                                    no: 35%

-Intermediate profession: yes: 47%
                                          no: 53%

-Employees: yes: 33%
                     no: 67%

-Workmen: yes: 21%
                   no: 79%

4) By statute

-Private employees: yes: 44%
                                 no: 56%

-Public employees: yes: 36%
                               no: 64%

-Self-employed workers: yes: 42%
                                        no: 58%

-Unemployed: yes: 29%
                       no: 71%

-Students: yes: 54%
                  no: 46%

-pensioners: yes: 56%
                     no: 44%

5) By dwelling

-rural: yes: 43%
           no: 57%

- <20 000: yes: 40%
                 no: 60%

- 20 000-100 000: yes: 43%
                              no: 57%

- 100 000+ :  yes: 45%
                      no: 55%

- Paris suburbs: yes: 55%
                          no: 45%

6) By diploma

- without diploma: yes: 28%
                              no: 72%

- < bac: yes: 35%
             no: 65%

- bac: yes: 47%
          no: 53%

- bac+2: yes: 54%
               no: 46%

- bac +3 and more: yes: 64%
                               no: 36%

7) By incomes

- <1000 euros: yes: 40%
                         no: 60%

- 1000-2000 euros: yes: 35%
                                no: 65%

- 2000 -3000 euros: yes: 42%
                                 no: 58%

- >3000 euros: yes: 63%
                         no: 37%

Cool By party ID

-extreme left: yes: 6%
                       no: 94%

-communists: yes: 2%
                      no: 98%

-socialists: yes: 44%
                  no: 56%

-green: yes: 40%
             no: 60%

-UDF: yes: 76%
          no: 24%

-UMP: yes: 80%
          no: 20%

-MPF: yes: 25%
          no: 75%

-extreme right: yes: 7%
                         no: 93%

Parliamentary left: yes: 37%
                              no: 63%

Parliamentary right: yes: 73%
                                no: 27%

9) By Presidential votes

-Besancenot: yes: 16%
                      no: 84%

-Laguiller: yes: 29%
                  no: 71%

-Hue: yes: 6%
          no: 94%

-Jospin: yes: 46%
             no: 54%

-Mamère: yes: 45%
                no: 55%

-Chevenement: yes: 41%
                          no: 59%

-Saint Josse: yes: 21%
                     no: 79%

-Bayrou: yes: 82%
               no: 18%

-Chirac: yes: 77%
             no: 23%

-Madelin: yes: 76%
               no: 24%

-Le Pen: yes: 11%
              no: 89%

10) Reasons of yes voters

-Constitution will increase the power of Europe against USA and China: 64%

-A constitution is necessary for the operation of Europe Unie with 25 countries: 44%

-A no win would weak France in Europe: 43%

-A no win would weak the European construction: 34%

-Constitution is a historic stage in the European construction: 28%

-Constitution is good for social: 26%

11) Reasons of no voters

-Unhappy towards the French economic and sociali situation: 52%

-Constitution is too liberal: 40%

-Possibility to renegociate a better constitution: 39%

-To oppose Turkey entry in Europe: 35%

-Constitution is a theath for the Feench identity: 32%

-a vote against political elites: 31%

12) Opinion on COnstitution

-good: 41% (++3 + 38)
-bad: 48% (- 32 -- 16)
-did not say: 11%

13) On European construction

-for: 72% (++29 +43)
-against: 23% (-10 --13)
-did not say: 5%


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Colin
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« Reply #203 on: June 03, 2005, 04:41:13 PM »

Umengus what is the MPF? I haven't ever heard of them before.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #204 on: June 03, 2005, 04:45:53 PM »

Umengus what is the MPF? I haven't ever heard of them before.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_France
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Umengus
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« Reply #205 on: June 04, 2005, 09:53:06 AM »


Populist too. De Villiers is officially a (right)-conservative but he is not stupid: he did campaign on Bolkestein and on Turkey, not on abortion or gays.
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Umengus
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« Reply #206 on: June 04, 2005, 09:57:36 AM »
« Edited: June 04, 2005, 10:00:39 AM by Umengus »

Composition of the "no" (ipsos poll)

A) By party ID

-extreme left: 5,6%
-communists: 10,6%
-socialist: 29,8%
-green: 8,5%
-UDF: 5%
-UMP: 7,5%
-MPF: 4,5%
-extreme right: 19,5%

B) By presidential vote

-Besancenot: 11,9%
-Laguiller: 4,5%
-Hue: 6,8%
-Jospin: 18,5%
-Mamère: 5,7%
-Chevenement: 2,3%
-St Josse: 0,9%
-Bayrou: 2,5%
-Chirac: 10,4%
-Madelin: 0,6%
-Le Pen: 32,5%
-others: 4,3%
-without party ID: 9%


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