French referendum: exit poll in details
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Umengus
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2005, 09:42:19 AM »


and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex? Wink

You know, Belgium is a great country on the international scene. Don't you know Louis "Big loulou" Michel, my former foreign minister? a center-right but good guy.

To be serious, I like France as I like USA. Politics in theses countries is very interessant and attractive. And I live in Wallonie, a "French speak" territory, next to France. I read the french newspapers, I watch french TVs,... Wallonie is under the French influence.
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Umengus
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« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2005, 05:11:27 AM »

Ifop poll

03/31 & 04/01,  sample: 868

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45 (-2)
-no: 55 (+2)

Are your sure of your vote?

-"yes voters": yes: 62%
-"no voters": yes: 64%

Methodology: by phones +quota method (as usual)

More coming soon...
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Umengus
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« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2005, 05:21:46 AM »



Odds are mounting against EU constitution
by Allister Heath, Economics Editor
March 13, 2005 12:00 AM (GMT)
THERE is a two-thirds chance that the European Constitution will fail to be ratified in all 25 European Union (EU) member states, a report from a leading investment bank warns this weekend.

The report, based on complex calculations from Morgan Stanley, comes at a time when the markets have yet to price the chances of a "No" vote on the euro and bond yields in one of nine remaining referendums.

Eric Chaney, of Morgan Stanley, said: "At this stage, it is reasonable to assume that the constitution will not pass at least one of the referendums."

Even if the French vote "Yes" in two months, the odds on full ratification remain less than 50%, according to Chaney's complicated probability analysis. France will hold its referendum on 29 May. This will be followed by the Netherlands three days later. Despite growing anxiety from the "Yes" camp in France, most analysts still expect the electorate to agree to the constitution, partly because the "No" camp lacks resources. The "No" side seems to be gaining ground in the traditionally europhile Netherlands.

In Poland, the main issue could be the participation rate, which must hit more than 50% for the referendum to be valid.

Chaney said: "So far, financial markets do not seem to have paid much attention to the constitution. A 'No' vote would be negative for the euro and would concentrate investors' minds on country-specific risks, based on the relative size of the national debt. However, excessive volatility on the euro and country credit spreads would open interesting reverse trade opportunities for investors taking a long-term view."

Link: http://thebusinessonline.com/33223/Odds_are_mounting_against_EU_constitution

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Gustaf
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« Reply #28 on: April 03, 2005, 08:17:19 AM »

Good work Umengus! Smiley

Things are looking fairly good...I hope the no-side wins, that would take care of the constititution without me having to worry to much about it all. Wink

Generally, the more idelogical people are the less they like the EU, whereas those that are technocrats are generally more in favour.
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Bono
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« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2005, 01:30:59 PM »


and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex? Wink

You know, Belgium is a great country on the international scene. Don't you know Louis "Big loulou" Michel, my former foreign minister? a center-right but good guy.

To be serious, I like France as I like USA. Politics in theses countries is very interessant and attractive. And I live in Wallonie, a "French speak" territory, next to France. I read the french newspapers, I watch french TVs,... Wallonie is under the French influence.

Can you speak vlaams?
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Umengus
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« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2005, 03:26:46 AM »


and the game is not over. There are still lots of undecideds. But the momentum is clearly for the "no". Yesterday, the Prime Minister began his campaign in favor of the "yes". A good thing for the "no", especially when you know that the "no" is first a "left no", not as in 1992 (Maastricht referendum: 80% of socialists voted "yes"). Yesterday, unemployement has still increased. Thank you Mister Raffarin!

What do you care' Your Belgian?
Is the belgian interest in French politics part of an inferiority complex? Wink

You know, Belgium is a great country on the international scene. Don't you know Louis "Big loulou" Michel, my former foreign minister? a center-right but good guy.

To be serious, I like France as I like USA. Politics in theses countries is very interessant and attractive. And I live in Wallonie, a "French speak" territory, next to France. I read the french newspapers, I watch french TVs,... Wallonie is under the French influence.

Can you speak vlaams?

een beetje
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Umengus
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« Reply #31 on: April 04, 2005, 03:42:26 AM »

Louis harris poll

March 24 & 26, sample: 400 "executives" (I hope that the translation is correct. In France, we speak "cadres" (people working at a good nevel of (public or not) companies)).

Do you prefer a "yes win" or a "no win"??

-A "yes win": 56% (-11)
-A "no win": 34% (+15)
-Don't know (or refuse to give their vote): 10% (-4)

Public executives: a "yes win": 42% (-14)
                             a "no win": 47% (+18)

Private executives: a "yes win": 66% (-8)
                               a "no win": 25% (+13)

Methodology: by phones and quotas method

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ATFFL
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« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2005, 12:41:16 PM »

Umengus, is that last poll is of people like corporate executives and mid to high ranking public officials?
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Umengus
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« Reply #33 on: April 05, 2005, 04:34:45 AM »

Umengus, is that last poll is of people like corporate executives and mid to high ranking public officials?

yes it is.
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Umengus
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« Reply #34 on: April 05, 2005, 05:11:18 AM »

1) Louis Harris poll
 
April 1 & 2, sample: 1004

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46%
-no: 54%

-34% "refuse" to give their vote (but say that they will vote)

Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 55%
-no: 35%
-don't know: 10%

Do you have a good opinion of President Jacques Chirac (last survey: Feb 25 & 26)?

-yes: 42% (-3)
-no: 51%(+5)
-no opinion: 7% (-2)

Do you have a good opinion of PM Jean Pierre Raffarin?

-yes: 28% (-7)
-no: 65% (+8)
-no opinion: 7% (-1)

2) CSA poll

March 30 & 31, sample: 865

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (+2)
-no: 53% (-2)

Abstention, blank votes,...: 51% (+1)

DETAILS

By party id (be careful, the size of some subgroups is weak)

Extreme left voters: yes: 44%
                                no: 56%
Left voters: yes: 42%
                   no: 58%
         
          -communists: yes: 16%
                                no: 84%
          -socialists: yes: 46%
                             no: 54%
          -Green: yes: 41%
                         no: 59%
Right voters: yes: 66%
                     no: 34%
             -UDF: yes: 71%
                       no: 29%
             -UMP: yes: 69%
                        no: 31%

"Extreme right": yes: 43%
                           no: 57%

Without party id: yes: 36%
                            no: 64%

3) Ipsos poll

April 1 & 2, sample: 947

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 48% (+2)
-no: 52% (-2)

-27% will vote but don't expressed a vote

Abstention: 50%

DETAILS

Left: yes: 42%
       no: 58%

   -socialists: yes: 47%
                     no: 53%

Right: yes: 72%
          no: 28%

   -UMP: yes: 74%
            no: 26%

Extreme right: yes: 14%
                        no: 86%

DETAILS

Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 74%
-no: 26%

    -for "yes voters": yes: 81%
                                 no: 19%

    -for "no voters": yes: 68%
                               no: 32%
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jfern
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« Reply #35 on: April 05, 2005, 05:22:14 AM »

So "extreme left" is more left than the Communists, Socialists, and Greens?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #36 on: April 05, 2005, 05:29:00 AM »

So "extreme left" is more left than the Communists, Socialists, and Greens?

Yes. France is an amazingly polarised country.
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Math
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« Reply #37 on: April 05, 2005, 07:20:58 AM »

blablabla...
votes no and shut up
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Umengus
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« Reply #38 on: April 06, 2005, 04:39:12 AM »

Sofres poll

1 & 2 april, sample: 910

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47%
-no: 53%

Are you interested by the referendum?

-yes: 64%  ( 30%++  34%+)
-no: 36% (20%-  10%--)


50% are sure of their vote (25% "yes voters" and 25% "no voters")
17% can change their vote (7% "yes voters", 10 % "no voters")
33% don't expressed their vote.
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Umengus
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« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2005, 05:14:52 AM »

Ipsos poll

8 & 9 april (last: 1 & 2 april), sample: 953

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-1)
-no: 53% (+1)

21% will vote but don't expressed their vote (-6).
Turnout: 49% (-1)

DETAILS

A) By party id:

-left (communists+green+socialist): yes: 40% (-2)
                                                         no: 60% (+2)

        -socialist: yes: 48% (+1)
                        no: 52% (-1)

-right (UDF, UMP): yes: 66% (-6)
                             no: 34% (+6)

        -UMP (Party of Chirac, Raffarin): yes: 68% (-6)
                                                           no: 32% (+6)

-extreme right: yes: 25% (+9)
                         no: 75% (-9) (the size of this sub-group is small in the poll)

(extreme left: unknown)

B)  is it your final vote?

-yes: 60% (+6) (yes voters: 76% (-5))
                           no voters: 76% (+8)

-no, I can still change my vote: 19% (=)
                          (yes voters: 24% (+5))
                            no voters: 24% (-8)

-Don't pronounce: 21% (-6)

C) Do you prefer a "yes win" or a "no win"?

-a "yes win": 40% (=)
-a "no win": 43% (+5)
-don't pronounce: 17% (-5)

D) If it's a "no win", do you think that there will be a re-negociation of the Constitution?

-yes: 63%
-no: 27%
-Don't pronounce: 10%
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Umengus
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2005, 04:56:55 AM »

1) CSA poll

6 & 7 april (last poll: 30 & 31 march), sample: 883

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46% (-1)
-no: 54% (+1)

Abstention: 48% (-3)

DETAILS (be very careful)

By party id

-left voters: yes: 40% (-2)
                    no: 60% (+2)
          -socialists: yes: 44% (-2)
                            no: 56% (+2)
          -Green: yes: 39% (-2)
                       no: 61% (+2)

-right voters: yes: 69% (+3)
                      no: 31% (-3)
           -UMP: yes: 78% (+9)
                     no: 22% (-9)
           -UDF: yes: 61% (-10)
                     no: 39% (+10)

2) BVA poll

8 & 9 april (last poll: 7-9 march), sample: 800

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-9)
-no: 53% (+9)

Abstention: 28%

DETAILS (Be very careful)

A) By party id

-extreme left+Communists: yes: 29%
                                            no: 71%
-left voters (without communists): yes: 41%
                                                       no: 59%
         -socialists: yes: 43%
                           no: 57%
         -green: yes: 45%
                      no: 55%

-right voters: yes: 58%
                      no: 42%
          -UMP: yes: 68%
                     no: 32%
          -UDF: yes: 61%
                    no: 39%

-extreme right voters: yes: 12%
                                    no: 88%

-without party id: yes: 43%
                             no: 57%
               

Comments: Every pollsters give now the "no" before the "yes" (the "no" between 52-55%). But there are still lots of undecideds voters and the referendum will happen 05/29. Hence, the game is not over...

Tomorrow, President Chirac will defend the "yes" at the TV. He will answer to questions of youth people. It will not be a debate (against a "no" leader) because Chirac is a coward...
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Umengus
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« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2005, 04:35:33 AM »

CSA poll

12 & 13 april, sample: 795

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45% (-1)
-no: 55% (+1)

Abstention: 48% (=)
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Umengus
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« Reply #42 on: April 16, 2005, 06:00:41 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2005, 07:25:48 AM by Umengus »

CSA poll

April 15 (after the "Chirac show" on the first channel in France (7 300 000 people watched. Good result)), sample: 1001

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 44% (-1)
-no: 56%(+1)

Abstention: 45% (-3)

Was Jacques Chirac convincing (sample: people who watched or intended to speak about his show)?

-yes: 40%
-no: 51%

-Did not say: 9%

IFOP poll

April 15 (after...) (last ifop poll: march 24), sample: 1010

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 44% (-3)
-no: 56% (+3)

Did not say: 12% (-6)

DETAILS

A) By party id (be careful...)

-extreme left: not in this poll

-communists: yes: 8%
                      no: 92%
-socialists: yes: 38%
                  no: 62%
-Green: yes: 38%
             no: 62%

-UDF: yes: 79%
          no: 21%
-UMP: yes: 72%
          no: 28%

-Extreme right: yes: 4%
                        no: 96%

B) Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 69% (+15)
-no: 31% (-12)

-Did not say: 0% (-3)

 For" yes voters": -yes: 66%
                             -no: 34%

 For "no voters": -yes: 71%
                           -no: 29%

C) After the "Chirac show", wat is your feeling?

-The show convinced me to vote yes: 5%
-The show convinced me to vote no: 5%

-I wanted to vote "yes" before the show and the show hadn't any effect: 31%
-I wanted to vote "no" before the show and the show hadn't any effect: 35%

-I still don't know wich will be my vote: 23%

-Did not say: 1%

Comments: I hope that's clear and that my english is not so bad. If these polls are correct, the Chirac Show could have been a very significant moment in the campaign. But there are still lots of undecided voters.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #43 on: April 16, 2005, 09:55:00 AM »

Thanks for the polls.  I was wondering if Chirac saying voting "yes" was pro-American hegemony would have any effect.

BTW, "Did not say" or "No answer" would be a better translation than "Don't pronounce."
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WMS
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« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2005, 08:14:13 PM »

"If we can't run the EU, NOBODY WILL!"

Grin

Ah, France can be so consistent...
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Umengus
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« Reply #45 on: April 17, 2005, 07:23:57 AM »

Thanks for the polls.  I was wondering if Chirac saying voting "yes" was pro-American hegemony would have any effect.

BTW, "Did not say" or "No answer" would be a better translation than "Don't pronounce."

thanks.

In fact, "no supporters" say that Bush would vote "yes" and "yes supporters" say that Bush would vote "no".

I think that Bush wants especially Turkey in Europe and I strongly refuse that.
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Umengus
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« Reply #46 on: April 18, 2005, 04:39:42 AM »
« Edited: April 18, 2005, 04:46:33 AM by Umengus »

Louis Harris poll

April 15 & 16 (last Harris poll:  april 1 & 2), sample: 1002

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (+1)
-no: 53% (-1)

-Did not say (but will vote): 33% (-1)

-Abstention: unknown

B) (only people who expressed their vote) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 82%
-no: 18%

- for "yes voters": -yes: 86% (+15)
                             -no: 14% (-15)
                             
- for "no voters": -yes: 79% (+1)
                            -no: 21% (-1)

C) Was Chirac convincing during his show on TV?

-Convincing: 22% (3 ++  19+)
-Not convincing: 50% (30 -  20 --)
-Did not say: 28%
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Umengus
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« Reply #47 on: April 19, 2005, 04:19:15 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2005, 04:33:53 AM by Umengus »

Ipsos poll

April 15 & 16 (last Ipsos poll: April 8 & 9), sample: 946

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45% (-2)
-no: 55% (+2)

-Dit not say: 20% (-1)
-Turnout: 52% (+3)

DETAILS

A) By party id

-left: -yes: 37% (-3)
         -no: 63% (+3)
 
     -socialists: -yes: 44% (-3)
                       -no: 56% (+3)

-right: -yes: 68% (+2)
           -no: 32% (-2)
 
      -UMP: -yes: 67% (-1)
                -no: 33% (+1)

-Extreme right (be careful...): -yes: 14% (-11)
                                               -no: 86% (+11)

B) Is it your final choice?

-yes: 65% (+5)
-no: 16% (-3)
-Did not say: 19% (-2)

 for "yes voters": yes: 78% (+3)
                            no: 22% (-2)

 for "no voters": yes: 82% (+6)
                           no: 18% (-6)

C) When you think to the future of Europe, what is your feeling?

-Mistrust: 41%
-Hope: 31%
-Trust: 41%
-Fear: 9%
-Did not say: 1%

D) With the EU constitution, Europe will be...

-Stronger: 63%
-Less strong: 25%
-No change: 3%
-Did not say: 9%

E) With the EU constitution...

-The effects of liberalism will be more controlled: 52%
-The effects of liberalism will be reinforced: 33%
-No change: 3%
-Did not say: 12%

F) With the EU constitution...

-The influence of France ill be greater: 38%
-The influence of France will be weaker: 43%
-No change: 9%
-Did not say: 10%

G) With the EU constitution...

-The living condistions of people will be better: 27%
-The living conditions of people will be less good: 55%
-No change: 10%
-Did not say: 8%

H) If the "no" wins, do you think that the European construction will be stopped?

-yes: 16%
-no: 80%
-Did not say: 4%



My comment: it's the highest result of the "no" in an Ipsos poll.

Comments of Pierre Giacometti, boss of Ipsos (translation not whole and maybe not perfect):

There are 6 things to remember of this poll:

-The game is not over because there are lots of undecided voters.
-The Chirac show has reinforced the right-left division.
-"No" dominates middleclass and it is everywhere. The "no voter" is an active people, employee, between 30-50 years old.
-French voters don't believe in the dramatization of the "no". "No" will not be the Apocalypse.
-Mistrust amongst lots of people towards the EU constitution.
-Mistrust because concerns about economy, social conditions,...


     
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jfern
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« Reply #48 on: April 19, 2005, 05:50:14 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2005, 05:51:59 AM by jfern »

Strange that the French left oppose this? Would I be right of center in France?
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Umengus
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« Reply #49 on: April 20, 2005, 03:57:15 AM »

Strange that the French left oppose this? Would I be right of center in France?

Compare French politics with US politics is like to compare apples with pears. You know, there are also lots of right people who oppose to the constitution. Philippe Devilliers (Right-conservative leader, will vote "no") said yesterday that the boss of Ipsos said to him that lots of rights voters were without party id in his poll. I don't know if it's true but De Villiers said that only 55% of rights voters approved the constitution. Hence, there are a "left no" and a "right no".

At the beginning of the campaign, I was undecided. But now, I'm strongly in favor of the "no". For lots of reasons:

- Constitution is illegible: there are 448 articles! And it's very difficult to read for everyone. When a text is illegible, when you can not understand what you are reading, you vote "no", not "yes".
(a contrario, the US constitution is very beautiful to read)

- Constitution is liberal (in the EU sense: economic neo-liberalism) (cfr. title III). Not new? maybe but  I was against this before, I am still against this today.

- The european law is superior to the national law. I can not support that.

- Look at the preamble: "His Majesty the king of the Belgians". It's not a way to begin a Constitution... (look at the US Constitution!)

--The EU military policy is dependent of USA (by NATO).

-Where is the "social Europe" wich lots of leaders promised to us? not in the Constitution

-The Constitution threatens the French conception of laicity (by authorising the religious public demonstration).

-The Bolkestein directive is implicitly in the Constitution (III-145).

-The vote on the Constitution is also an occasion to say "no" to the EU commission. The worst commission ever.

- The european construction is not new. Today, we are able to give our opinion about that. And my opinion is that I refuse this Europe. I'm a pro-european but not of the neo-liberal Europe.

PS: In France, I think that you would be a green voter: a liberal-libertarian (Both in the EU sense) gauchist
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