French referendum: exit poll in details

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

May 20 & 21 (lastpoll: May 13 & 14), 950

Meth:By phone,...

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-2)
-no: 53% (+2)

-Did not say:20% (-2)
-Turnout: 67% (+9)

2) ByParty ID

-Left voters: yes: 40% (-1)
                    no: 60% (+1)
                  -socialists: yes: 46% (-4)
                                   no: 54% (+4)

-right voters: yes: 73% (+1)
                     no: 27% (-1)
                   -UMP: yes: 73% (+1)
                              no:27% (-1)

-extreme right voters*: yes: 8% (-6)
                                     no: 92% (+6)

3) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 71% (+5)
         -for yes voters: 91% (+8)
         -for no voters: 88% (+3)

-no:    9% (-3)
         -for yes voters: 9% (-8)
         -for no voters: 12 % (-3)

-did not say: 20% (-2)

4) Do you wish a yes win or a no win?

-yes win: 38% (-1)
-no win: 45% (+1)
-Did not say: 17% (=)

5) Worried the most with...

-a yes win: 45%(=)
-a no win: 36% (+1)
-did not say: 19% (-1)

6) Possible renegociation after a no win?

-yes: 55% (-7)
-no: 40% (+10)
-did not say: 5% (-3)

7) A no win...(last poll May 6 & 7)

-...would weak the position of France in Europe: 45% (-2)
-... wouldn't weak...: 50% (+2)
-did not say: 5% (=)

Opinion of the pollster, Pierre Giacometti (not the French John Zogby...not yet... ): "no momentum" but the game is not over.

My opinion: Every polls give a "no momentum". Maybe not decisive. Turnout will be very significiant. And it will be high, like in 2002 (good turnout=lots of working class voters=a no win).

[Umengus]

Louis Harris poll

May 20 & 21 (last poll: April 29 & 30), 1006

Meth: By phone,...

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 48% (-1)
-no: 52% (+1)

B) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 71%
        -for yes voters: 88%
        -for no voters: 83%

-no: 20%
         -for yes voters: 11%
         -for no voters: 17%

-did not say: 9%

[Umengus]

CSA poll

May 21 & 23 (last poll May 13 & 14), 999

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-2)
-no: 53% (+2)

-Turnout: 65% (+2)

B) By party id

-extreme left*: yes: 18%
                         no: 82%

-left: yes: 43%
         no: 57%
         -communists*: yes: 23%
                                 no: 77%
 
         -socialists: yes: 47%
                           no: 53%

         -green: yes: 36%
                      no: 64%

-right: yes: 74%
           no: 26%
           -UDF: yes: 80%
                     no: 20%

            -UMP: yes: 82%
                      no: 18%

            -RPF*: yes: 36%
                       no: 64%

-extreme right: yes: 4%
                         no: 96%

-without party id: yes: 33%
                             no: 67%

[Beet]

We are about to witness history. The process that began with the ECSC (1951) crashes and burns this week.

[Umengus]

We are about to witness history. The process that began with the ECSC (1951) crashes and burns this week.

maybe, maybe not... Maybe the born of a new Europe...
If no wins, it will be just the Nice agreement and an eventual renegociation.

[minionofmidas]

Exactly. After all, the French no campaign isn't that "anti-European" in character.

[Jens]

We are about to witness history. The process that began with the ECSC (1951) crashes and burns this week.

Well, Denmark has voted no twice without causing a crash.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

May 21-23 (last: May 19 & 20), 1008

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46% (-2)
-no: 54% (+2)

-did not say: 8% (=)
-turnout: 67%

B) By party ID

-communists: yes: 9%
                      no: 91%
-socialists: yes: 48%
                  no: 52%
-green: yes: 42%
             no: 58%
-UDF: yes: 72%
          no: 28%
-UMP: yes: 67%
           no: 33%
-extreme right: yes: 21%
                         no: 79%

C) Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 78% (=)
        -for yes voters: 76% (+2)
        -for no voters: 80% (-1)
-no: 22% (=)
-did not say: 0

D) Who is your favorite people to be President of Europe? (answers given)

-Simone veil: 30%
-Jacques Delors: 23%
-Giscard d'Estaing: 14%
-Tony Blair: 9%
-Schroeder: 7%
-Felipe Gonzalez:6%
-Prodi: 3%
-Walesa: 3%

[ATFFL]

French in disarray as they admit EU treaty vote is lost

Just a little selection from the article:

THE leader of France’s ruling party has privately admitted that Sunday’s referendum on the European constitution will result in a “no” vote, throwing Europe into turmoil.

“The thing is lost,” Nicolas Sarkozy told French ministers during an ill-tempered meeting. “It will be a little ‘no’ or a big ‘no’,” he was quoted as telling Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the Prime Minister, whom he accused of leading a feeble campaign.

Although Europe would be thrown into disarray, the Government would be greatly relieved if M Sarkozy were right.

Ministers have privately told The Times that Britain is prepared to ditch its commitment to a referendum if France, or the Netherlands next Wednesday, vote against the constitution. They believe that if the French say “no”, President Chirac will have to declare the constitution dead or promise a renegotiation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems like the honourable member for Rotherham was right then

[CARLHAYDEN]

Chirac shows his true colors:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1629946,00.html

[Umengus]

Sorry for delay.

Sofres poll

May 23 & 24 (last: 11 & 12), 1000

Meth: Face to face, quotas, stratification.

1) Are you interested by the referendum?

yes: 62% (+2)
no: 37% (-3)
without opinion: 1%

Recall: Maastricht referendum, same period: yes: 63%
                                                                       no: 37%

2) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46% (-1)
-no: 54% (+1)

-did not say: 20 (-5)

3) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 82% (+5)
-no: 17% (-4)
-without opinion: 1%

4) Do you wish a yes win or a no win?

-a yes win: 39%
-a no win: 43%
without opinion: 18%

5) Wich will be the result?

-a yes win: 41%
-a no win: 47%
-without opinion: 12%

6) Do you agree with...

-A yes win will facilitate the operation of the EU institutions:
agree: 58%
not agree: 29%

-A yes win will give more power to Europe against USA and China:
agree: 54%
not agree: 39%

-A yes win will threat public services in France:
agree: 46%
not agree: 43%

-Renegociation is possible if no wins:
agree: 52%
not agree: 36%

-The French identity will be preserve if no wins:
agree: 49%
not agree: 42%

-Economic growth and employement will be weaken if no wins:
yes: 25%
no: 63%

7) If no wins, do you think that the position of France in Europe will be...

weakened: 40%
not weakened: 54%
without opinion: 6%


My opinion: it's the last sofres poll but it's not a prediction poll. Next Sofres poll will be exit poll, sunday 10 PM.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

May 24 & 25 (last: 20 & 21), 804

1) Do you approve the Eu constitution?

-yes: 45% (-2)
-no: 55% (+2)

-did not say: 23% (+3)
-Turnout: 65% (-2)

2) By party ID

-left voters: yes: 37% (-3)
                    no: 63% (+3)
               
                    -socialists: yes: 44% (-2)
                                      no: 56% (+2)

-right voters: yes: 75% (+2)
                      no: 25% (-2)
                 
                    -UMP: yes: 76%
                              no: 23%

-extreme right*: yes: 3% (-5)
                           no: 97% (+5)

3) Are you sure of your vote (people will vote)?

-yes: 66% (-5)
          -for yes voters: 87% (-4)
          -for no voters: 85% (-3)
-no: 11% (+2)
           -for yes voters: 13% (+4)
           -for no voters: 15% (+3)
-did not say: 23% (+3)

4) Do you wish a yes won or a no win?

-A yes win: 35% (-3)
- A no win: 43% (-2)
-Did not say: 22% (+5)

5) Wich will be the result?

-A yes win: 23% (-11)
-A no win: 49% (+8)
-Did not say: 28% (+3)

6) Reasons to vote yes (left/right voters)

-A no win would weak France in UE: 35% (+6) (40/32)

-EU constitution is a historic stage in the EU construction: 25% (+2) (31/24)

-EU constitution is good to the "Social Europe": 21% (+4) (17/25)

-A no win would threaten the EU construction: 19% (=) (21/19)

7) Reasons to vote no

-Renegociation to have a better constitution is possible : 33% (+5) (42/31)

-Constitution is too liberal (liberal not in the American sense of course...):  26% (-1) (34/26)

-Occasion to say no to the Turkey: 24% (+4) (16/40)

-EU constitution is a threat for the French identity: 23% (-2) (16/21)

-The result of the EU construction is bad for France: 21% (-3) (19/31)

-Occasion to oppose to government: 16% (+5) (15/3)



Opinion of Ipsos pollster:

   -no momentum
   
-to be careful: lots of undecided, especially at left. But "a yes win would be a surprise".       

My opinion: -it's the last ispos poll before the referendum. Not a prediction of course. If this poll is correct, last Jospin interview on TF1 was without effect. Yesterday, French president Chirac did his last interview. Not sure that it will be enough...

                    -there is a no win feeling amongst lots of politicians (yes or no leaders).

[12th Doctor]

Chirac shows his true colors:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1629946,00.html

Chirac, as many of the EU leaders, are nothing but civilized dictators.  Who didn't know this?

Truth is, none of them really care what the people of Europe think, as they are just being affected by the nationalistic feelings of the "unwashed masses" anyway.

P.S.  Having been to France, I recongnize that the French people are not the problem, it is their government.  The French people are very nice, polite, personable, and (unfortunatly) disconnect themselves with the actions fo their government.  Times like these, I wish they would not do that.

[Umengus]

Chirac shows his true colors:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1629946,00.html

Chirac, as many of the EU leaders, are nothing but civilized dictators.  Who didn't know this?

Truth is, none of them really care what the people of Europe think, as they are just being affected by the nationalistic feelings of the "unwashed masses" anyway.

P.S.  Having been to France, I recongnize that the French people are not the problem, it is their government.  The French people are very nice, polite, personable, and (unfortunatly) disconnect themselves with the actions fo their government.  Times like these, I wish they would not do that.

Strongly agree. Especially in France, the division is not between left or right but between (economic, political,...) elites and people.

[Umengus]

CSA poll

May 24 & 26 (last 21 & 23), 1002

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45% (+2)
-no: 55% (+2)

-Turnout: 65%

2) By party ID

-extreme left: yes: 23%
                       no: 77%

-left: yes: 37%
        no: 63%

         -communists*: yes: 8%
                                 no: 92%

         -socialists: yes: 42%
                           no: 58%

         -green: yes: 29%
                      no: 71%

-right: yes: 73%
           no: 27%

            -UMP: yes: 77%
                       no: 23%
   
             -UDF: yes: 84%
                       no: 16%

              -RPF/MPF*: yes: 17%
                                no: 83%

-extreme right*: yes: 4%
                          no: 96%

-without party ID/did not say: yes: 35%
                                                no: 65%

[Umengus]

CSA poll

May 26 & 27, 1019 (after the Chirac speech on every channels (TV and radio))

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 48% (+3)
-no: 52% (-3)

-turnout: 67%

2) By party ID

-extreme left: yes: 12%
                       no: 88%

-left: yes: 42%
         no: 58%

           -communists: yes: 8%
                                 no: 92%

           -Green: yes: 26%
                        no: 74%

           -socialists: yes: 49%
                  no: 51%

-right: yes: 74%
           no: 26%

        -UMP: yes: 80%
                  no: 20%

        -UDF: yes: 87%
                  no: 13%

         -RPF/MPF: yes: 9%
                          no: 91%

-extreme right: yes: 9%
                         no: 91%

-without party ID: yes: 42%
                             no: 58%

For only friday, CSA gives: yes: 49% and no:51%

My opinion is that it's maybe a poll made (and released) in the precipitation. A regular criticism on CSA. It's difficult to believe that socialists can be convinced by Jacques Chirac. But why not...

I will give tomorrow my prediction in details, just to say one thing because it was the last poll before referendum (EDIT: last before the next... ).

[Banana Republic]

I'm hoping that the French vote 'yes', and that Britain is the only country that votes 'no'(it will vote no if there is a referendum, does anyone seriously doubt that?).

[Umengus]

hey! is it a joke?

Ifop poll

May 26 & 27, 815 (of 1007)

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 44% (-2)
-no: 56% (+2)

-did not say: 9% (+1)

2) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 83%
      -for yes voters: 79%
      -for no voters: 85%

-no: 17% (-5)

3) By party ID

-left: yes: 39%
        no: 61%
        -socialists: yes: 46%
                          no: 54%

         -green: yes: 34%
                      no: 66%

-right: yes: 52% (?)
           no: 48%

         -UMP: yes: 62%
                   no: 38%
 
          -UDF: yes: 90%
                    no: 10%

My opinion: -Difficult to believe that only 52% of right voters support the "yes"...

                    -I want an Ipsos poll!

[Beet]

The funny this is, this "constitution" does so little that the federalists would have been better off never making it in the first place.

[2952-0-0]

The DOM-TOM in the South Pacific and southern Indian Ocean vote, with the No side ahead. A few days ago I was going to call the election for the No, but the Yes side is making one final comeback. You cannot swear by the polls, as Democrats in the US learnt the hard way last November...

French territories to start EU vote with 'No' ahead
By Paul Carrel  |  May 28, 2005

PARIS (Reuters) - Voters in French overseas territories begin casting their ballots on Saturday in France's referendum on the European Union constitution, with the "No" camp holding its lead in the final opinion polls.
 
Voting was set to begin at 1000 GMT in Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, islands off Canada's eastern coast with a population of just 7,000. Other overseas territories start voting later in the day and voters in France have their say on Sunday.

One survey on Friday showed a sharp drop in the size of the majority opposing the treaty, giving a ray of hope for the "Yes" camp, led by President Jacques Chirac.

Supporters say rejection would kill the constitution and weaken France in Europe. Opponents say a "No" vote would force the EU to redraft the treaty and improve it.

The constitution is intended to make the EU work more smoothly following its enlargement last year and requires the backing of all 25 member states to go into force.

Germany became the ninth country to back the charter on Friday when its upper house, the Bundesrat, gave its overwhelming endorsement in a parliamentary vote timed to encourage wavering French voters to do the same.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder urged the French to back the treaty.

"If we want to play our role in the world, if we want to take decisions and not see them imposed by others, if we want to keep our European social model, we can do so only with a strong and united Europe," he wrote in Le Figaro newspaper.

"The European constitution lays the foundations," he added.

OPPOSITION WANING?

A poll by Ifop research group on Friday showed the "No" camp on 56 percent support. But a survey by CSA polling group showed 52 percent of voters who have decided how to vote will oppose the charter, a drop of 3 percentage points since Thursday.

The CSA poll put supporters of the treaty on 48 percent, a figure that rose to 49 percent among voters questioned on Friday -- one day after Chirac made a final televised plea to voters to back the constitution.

Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, who takes the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2006, was skeptical about calls to repeat the French or other referendums if they resulted in a "No" vote.

"Should they keep voting until the result is okay?" Schuessel told Austrian daily Die Presse in an interview. "And what would be the message: 'Regardless how you vote, we will go ahead one way or the other'?

"Let's wait. I hope the result will be good, and if not, then we will have to sit down together and jointly define a way."

A second referendum would be unlikely in France, political analysts say, and French and EU leaders say there is no "Plan B" to fall back on if French voters reject the treaty.

Voters as far away as French Polynesia in the Pacific Ocean vote on the treaty on Saturday, along with those in Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guiana and Saint-Pierre and Miquelon.

With the vote set for a close result, Chirac appealed last week to voters in the overseas territories to back the charter, which he said offered them support. Some 1.7 million people live in France's overseas territories and departments.

Supporters say the constitution will help make Europe and France stronger. Opponents say it enshrines economic policies that have failed to stop the loss of jobs to low-wage economies, including to countries outside the European Union such as China.

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

May 26 & 27, 1009

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 49% (+3)
-no: 51% (-3)

-did not say: 21% (+1)

It's the last sofres poll, they say... In fact, the problem is that, saturday and sunday, you may not publish a poll on the French territory. But you can outside...

I heard that An Ipsos poll gave 55% for no and 45% for yes. For the same period. But I'm not sure. The great difference between Ifop and others poll is undecided: small in Ifop poll, great in sofres and csa polls.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's looking doomed, unless someone runs a last minute ad saying "George W. Bush endorses the non option".

[Beet]

It's looking doomed, unless someone runs a last minute ad saying "George W. Bush endorses the non option".

Non

[2952-0-0]

It's looking doomed, unless someone runs a last minute ad saying "George W. Bush endorses the non option".

Non

Beet, why did you change your sig and name to NON? You're not French and cannot vote.