Mark Warner Not Running

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Got a POLITICO REPORT. HE'S NOT RUNNING IN 2013 sadly. That means we're gonna have a Horserace.

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[Miles]

Good. I'd rather keep his Senate seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Once McAuliffe announced the cat was out of the bag. Horserace gubernatorial, Safe D Senate.

[Incipimus iterum]

who knows McAuliffe might even win this race

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Good. I'd rather keep his Senate seat.

[morgieb]

Good. I'd rather keep his Senate seat.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

We have a Virginia megathread!  Use it!

[Keystone Phil]

Safe R in the Gubernatorial race

[Skill and Chance]

I'm surprised he didn't pull the trigger with Democrats so comfortably in the senate majority and him not liking the job that much.  Maybe he thinks he can be a key player in brokering a debt deal next year?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I'm surprised he didn't pull the trigger with Democrats so comfortably in the senate majority and him not liking the job that much.  Maybe he thinks he can be a key player in brokering a debt deal next year?

I think it's more that he's gearing up to run for President in 2016, and he doesn't need to be in a tougher job when he already has executive experience under his belt.

[politicallefty]

Good. I'd rather keep his Senate seat.

[Holmes]

Safe R in the Gubernatorial race

If McDouche is the nominee, yes.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Safe R in the Gubernatorial race

Definitely false.  If McAuliffe can utilize Obama's turnout machine, and get plenty of help from Bill, he has a chance.  It leans R because of history, but there's no way it's safe for either party.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok but here is a big factor in "utilizing the Obama turnout machine": you need a candidate that that crowd will turn out for. McAuliffe? No.

I'm asking this seriously: can someone tell me a single qualification Terry possesses to be Governor? I don't know of anything this guy has done except be a professional political hack.

[they don't love you like i love you]

It's very far from guaranteed McAuliffe will be the nominee especially considering how pathetic he did last time.

[Skill and Chance]

It's very far from guaranteed McAuliffe will be the nominee especially considering how pathetic he did last time.

They really need Perriello or Webb to get in if they want at least even odds in the general.  Perriello would drive the Obama turnout and Webb is one of the few people left who can appeal to both NOVA and Appalachia.

[Benj]

It's very far from guaranteed McAuliffe will be the nominee especially considering how pathetic he did last time.

I do agree with this. If he's the nominee, he'll be roundly trounced, and deservedly (though unfortunately) so, unless the Republican nominee is Cuccinelli or some equally kooky nominee unable to hide his kookiness (and even then I think McAuliffe would probably lose to Cuccinelli, unfortunately). However, McAuliffe is such a phenomenally uninspiring and bad campaigner that he's sure to draw some primary rivals who would be more electable. I wouldn't be surprised if Tom Perriello were the Democratic nominee, for example.

[Meeker]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see McAuliffe run unopposed for the nomination. It looks like he's been quietly running since Deeds lost and has probably won over the major donors and opinion makers. The fact that in the wake of his announcement no one notable came out to say they were even thinking about running is pretty telling. One would want to stunt his momentum as quickly as possible.

As for Webb and Perriello, it seems like Webb is done with electoral politics. Perriello's passion seems to be on international issues, a subject that is not particularly suited for a stint as Governor. He has a pretty influential job right now in D.C. anyways.

As for the general election, there are obviously problems with McAuliffe (past campaign folies, reputation as a partisan, lack of enthusiasm from party activists) but he has a fair amount of private sector experience as well. He'll portray himself as a moderate Democratic businessman and with enough money and smart tactics he'll probably make a race out of it.

[Joe Republic]

Why do so few former governors run for their old job?  The law bans consecutive terms; it doesn't stop them from running again later.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

He'll portray himself as a moderate Democratic businessman and with enough money and smart tactics he'll probably make a race out of it.

Because we all learnt in 2012 that being a moderate, businessman, with lots of cash behind you totally makes up for lack of enthusiasm, and being gaffe prone.

[JacobNC]

The 2013 Republican primary will be the first big test for Republicans to see if they have learned anything from their trouncing in 2012.  Will they go with the Cuccinelli who you know can't wait to make a comment about rape, or the allegedly not-crazy Lt. Gov. Bolling, who is the establishment choice.

[Meeker]

He'll portray himself as a moderate Democratic businessman and with enough money and smart tactics he'll probably make a race out of it.

Because we all learnt in 2012 that being a moderate, businessman, with lots of cash behind you totally makes up for lack of enthusiasm, and being gaffe prone.

Yes, actually. A number of new members of Congress ran on that formula and were quite successful.

[Ogre Mage]

Safe R in the Gubernatorial race

As I recall you thought Tommy Thompson was going to win and Todd Akin had a fair chance to win.

[Niemeyerite]

Safe R in the Gubernatorial race

As I recall you thought Tommy Thompson and Sarkozy was were going to win and Todd Akin had a fair chance to win.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Why do so few former governors run for their old job?  The law bans consecutive terms; it doesn't stop them from running again later.

Taking a look at the recent Governors...

1. Chuck Robb took the Senate seat and was then considered as possible candidate for national office. No point of returning to the Governor's Mansion
2. Gerald L. Baliles... now he was a likely candidate to do so, considering that two Senate seats were locked and that he did not purse, despite some speculations, 1992 Democratic presidential nomination. Yet, he abandoned active politics after his term ended.
3. Douglas Wilder. Briefly attempted to run for Senate as indy in 1994. Probably wouldn't be able to become Governor again even if he wanted.
4. George Allen. Yes, we all know his story. Preferred to take the Senate seat, especially since he was a possible national candidates as well... until he had his Macaca moment.
5. Jim Gillmore... Remember that loser? HAHAHAHAHAHA!
6. Mark Warner, already discussed here.
7. Tim Kaine: again the Senate is better.