How has NE-3 voted Democrat the majority of the time?
Fixed.
Why is Virginia more R than North Carolina?
Virginia has been trending Democratic, but that doesn't exempt it's history. The green (or orange) doesn't mean a state is more (or less) Republican (or Democratic). I just wanted to show separately states that have flipped once out of the 6 elections.
The only real "shades" that are easily decipherable are 30%, 50% and 90% --so I wanted it to simply be as easy to see as possible.
The teal is still what I would consider reliably Republican, and the orange is what I would still consider reliably Democratic based on trends. Like I said, a single candidate could shift the map incredibly --but the trends are what they are.
And remember, the majority of states have trended more Republican in 2012 --but in 2008 we saw the majority trend more Democratic. I think the teal and orange states are good examples of the states that have the potential to flip first in a tight race.
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If you removed 1992: Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia would all be teal. Montana would be solid Republican as would Georgia. Florida would be 3/5 for the Democrats making it 50% Red moving the Democrats EV count from 277 to 306. Colorado moves into the 3/5 for the Republicans moving their EV to 227.
If you removed 1996: Arizona turns 90% blue. Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia turn 90% blue. Florida & Colorado move back to a tossup. Ohio, Virginia, Nevada becomes a tossup. Iowa turns orange (3/4 for Democrats), NH stays orange.
No 92/96:
Democrats: 253
Republicans: 205
Toss Ups: 80