2016 Base Map
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Author Topic: 2016 Base Map  (Read 1518 times)
sentinel
sirnick
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« on: November 21, 2012, 01:37:32 PM »
« edited: November 21, 2012, 02:12:40 PM by sirnick »

So I think, or I hope, many of you would agree that this is a decent base map --based on trends alone. One candidate can shake things up (massively) so this is not an end of the world prediction for the Republicans (or the Democrats).



90% = Solidly for one party since 1992
50% = 4 out of 6 elections for one party since 1992

30% Green = 5/6 time for Republicans
30% Orange = 5/6 time for Democrats

Gray = Split 50/50 since 1992

So, here's how the numbers work out:

Pure Toss Up States: Colorado & Florida - 39 EV

Democrats: 277
Republicans: 218

---



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opebo
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2012, 01:45:45 PM »

Very nice, but what's the yellow in New Hampshire and the CD in Nebraska then?
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2012, 01:47:31 PM »

How has NE-3 voted Democrat the majority of the time?
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Icefire9
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2012, 01:57:18 PM »

Why is Virginia more R than North Carolina?
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2012, 01:59:40 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2012, 02:02:21 PM by FloridaRepublican »

Arizona should be green. It's only voted Democrat once since 1992. And New Mexico should be orange because it's only voted Republican once since 1992.
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2012, 02:16:34 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2012, 02:36:01 PM by sirnick »

How has NE-3 voted Democrat the majority of the time?

Fixed.

Why is Virginia more R than North Carolina?

Virginia has been trending Democratic, but that doesn't exempt it's history. The green (or orange) doesn't mean a state is more (or less) Republican (or Democratic). I just wanted to show separately states that have flipped once out of the 6 elections.

The only real "shades" that are easily decipherable are 30%, 50% and 90% --so I wanted it to simply be as easy to see as possible.

The teal is still what I would consider reliably Republican, and the orange is what I would still consider reliably Democratic based on trends. Like I said, a single candidate could shift the map incredibly --but the trends are what they are.

And remember, the majority of states have trended more Republican in 2012 --but in 2008 we saw the majority trend more Democratic. I think the teal and orange states are good examples of the states that have the potential to flip first in a tight race.

---

If you removed 1992: Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia would all be teal. Montana would be solid Republican as would Georgia. Florida would be 3/5 for the Democrats making it 50% Red moving the Democrats EV count from 277 to 306. Colorado moves into the 3/5 for the Republicans moving their EV to 227.

If you removed 1996: Arizona turns 90% blue. Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia turn 90% blue. Florida & Colorado move back to a tossup. Ohio, Virginia, Nevada becomes a tossup. Iowa turns orange (3/4 for Democrats), NH stays orange.

No 92/96:

Democrats: 253
Republicans: 205
Toss Ups:  80

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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2012, 04:35:14 PM »

I see you're predicting that Rhode Island will be in the middle of a zombie apocalypse by 2016.
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sentinel
sirnick
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2012, 01:06:48 AM »

I see you're predicting that Rhode Island will be in the middle of a zombie apocalypse by 2016.

Yes. Yes indeed. I'm glad you caught that. Its quite concerning.
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