IL-02 special election thread

[Meeker]

Mel Reynolds is in. God save us: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-convicted-former-rep-mel-reynolds-wants-jackson-seat-in-congress-20121128,0,4033691.story

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A few other local politicos have thrown their hats into the ring as well (all are African-American, I believe).

[ill ind]

  The filing deadline for this seat has now passed.  The following have filed for the special Feb 26 primary to replace JJJ

Democratic:
  Larry D. Pickens
  O. Patrick Brutus
  Fatimah N. Muhammad
  Former Congresswoman and 2012 JJJ primary challenger Deborah Halvorson
  Frequent candidate (Senate,Lt Gov, etc) Joyce W. Washington
  2012 write-in candidate Anthony W. Williams
  Ernest B. Fenton
  John Blyth
  Charles Rayburn
  Gregory Haynes
  Jonathan Victor formerly known as Victor Onafuye until name changed on October 18,2012
  Former Congressman Mel "MR" Reynolds
  Chicago Alderman Anthony A. Beale.
  15th Dist State Senate-Elect and former NFL player Napoleon Harris
  40th Dist State Senator Toi W. Hutchinson
  Former State Rep and 2010 State Treasurer nominee Robyn Kelly
  Clifford J. Eagleton

Republican:
  Eric M. Wallace
  James H. Taylor Sr.
  Beverly E. Reid
  Lenny McAllister
  Paul McKinley

My guess is that after all of the ballot challenges have been settled, this list will be considerably shorter.

  Beale, Kelly, Halvorson, and Hutchinson are the 'real' candidates in the Dem primary.  One of those four will win.
  In 2010 Governor Quinn got 77% of the major party vote and in 2012 Obama got 81.3% of the major party vote in this district, so I'll go way way out on a limb and predict that whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will win the general quite handily.

  The district is 33.47% white, 53.77% black, .79% Asian, and 11.09% Hispanic.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  So far the race has been Halvorsen,Hutchinson, and Kelly.

  Robin Kelly has gone 'all in' on the guns issue hitting Halvorsen and Hutchinson for their A and A- respective ratings from the NRA. She gets and F.

  Cook County board chair Toni Prckwinkle came out and endorsed Toi Hutchinson.

  It will be interesting to see how many Republicans pick Democratic primary ballots in Will and Kankakee Counties.  There are no other primary races and the GOP primary is an exercise in futility anyways.   That would help Halvorsen and Hutchinson who are better know there.

  The real wildcard in the race is Chicago.  About 1/3 of the Dem primary votes in 2012 came from Chicago.  None of the 3 lead candidates are from there.  Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale is in the race, but has been pretty quiet.

Ill_Ind

The rest of the pack has been pretty quiet.

[muon2]

Early voting began today, and it still looks like it's between Halvorson, Hutchinson, and Kelly. The race seems largely about gun control since both Halvorson and Hutchinson have in the past enjoyed good ratings from the NRA which is now used against them. A most interesting feature related to that has been the roughly million dollar expenditure by NY Mayor Bloomberg on behalf of Kelly.

[ill ind]

  I would suspect Halvorson and Hutchinson's rating are due to the fact that they both have had to run in the rural areas of the present 2nd district whereas Kelly has never needed to do so.
  In 2010 Halvorson lost a challenge from the right to Adam Kinziger and Hutchinson held off a strong tea party supported challenge from Adam Baumgartner.  Both needed to appeal to the rural voters in their respective districts--hence their appeal for NRA support.
  Kelly on the other hand was elected from Il-38 which did and still does represent predominately African American areas of the Towns of Rich and Bremen.  She never had to worry about a challenge from the GOP, so she was free to adopt any view on guns she wanted.
 
Ill_Ind

[minionofmidas]

She was not free to adopt any position she wanted. Inner suburbs, and especially Black ones, are the only areas where gun control was always a major vote-winner. Guns are what these people escaped to the suburbs from.

[ill ind]

  The Kankakee County Democratic Central Committee has unanimously endorsed Hutchinson and the Kankakee County Republicans held a bi-partisan rally for her (knowing that their chances of electing a Republican in Ill-2 are on par with a snowball's chance in hell even though Romney won in Kankakee County in November)
  Gives one a taste for how the southern part of the district is leaning.

  The 'rural' areas of Kankakee and Will Counties cast 11.3% of the Democratic primary vote in 2010, but 19.88% of the overall primary vote.  Since there are no other elections and winning the Democratic Primary is pretty much a given for being elected to the seat, it remains to be seen how many Republicans will cross over and vote in the Democrativ primary.

Ill_Ind

[Miles]

Halvorson went on Fox News. Thats an interesting way to sell yourself to Democratic voters.

DKE had this insight:

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[ill ind]

  Halvorson going on Fox isn't really such a bad idea.

  In this race 10,000 votes is likely enough to win.  Doesn't matter how you get it.  It will be interesting to see where it comes from as well.  If Chicago has a lower turnout than Kankakee County, then Halvorson would have made a good gamble.  There are no GOP elections going on except the GOP primary for this race.  The Democratic primary is the defacto election here, so it would make sense to try and attract crossover voters.

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

[Zioneer]

  Halvorson going on Fox isn't really such a bad idea.

  In this race 10,000 votes is likely enough to win.  Doesn't matter how you get it.  It will be interesting to see where it comes from as well.  If Chicago has a lower turnout than Kankakee County, then Halvorson would have made a good gamble.  There are no GOP elections going on except the GOP primary for this race.  The Democratic primary is the defacto election here, so it would make sense to try and attract crossover voters.

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

Well, if you have the opportunity to have someone who almostly matches up with your views, why not take it?

[seanNJ9]

http://capitolfax.com/2013/02/16/this-just-in-266/

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[Landslide Lyndon]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Mel Reynolds is in.

DRAFT GUS SAVAGE!

[Nhoj]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

You underestimate some over there.

[Obamanation]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

You underestimate some over there.

Exactly. Democrats are running anti-NRA ads against McConnell in Kentucky. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow an otherwise safe race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

You underestimate some over there.

Exactly. Democrats are running anti-NRA ads against McConnell in Kentucky. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow an otherwise safe race.

I didn't know that Mitch McConnell is expected to run in a Democratic primary.

[Obamanation]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

You underestimate some over there.

Exactly. Democrats are running anti-NRA ads against McConnell in Kentucky. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow an otherwise safe race.

I didn't know that Mitch McConnell is expected to run in a Democratic primary.

I was referring to the downstate district example you were making. The point is that progressives tend to shoot from the hip regardless of political realities, this causing political damage in already challenging situations - whether in a Democratic primary or in a general election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

  The really painful thing to watch has been the Daily Kos people's litmus test for Democratic purity in this race.  These guys are just as annoyingly goofy about their ideological purity as the tea party Republicans that they oppose.

Ill_Ind

This is a heavily Democratic district, so they are having the luxury to act like that. If it was a swing seat downstate then I'm sure nobody would care if the Dem candidate had an A rating from NRA.

You underestimate some over there.

Exactly. Democrats are running anti-NRA ads against McConnell in Kentucky. Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow an otherwise safe race.

I didn't know that Mitch McConnell is expected to run in a Democratic primary.

I was referring to the downstate district example you were making. The point is that progressives tend to shoot from the hip regardless of political realities, this causing political damage in already challenging situations - whether in a Democratic primary or in a general election.

No they don't. If they did then we would have seen in the past primary challenges against people like Ben Chandler, Mark Pryor or Kent Conrad.
Only Blanche Lincoln was seriously challenged and that was because she was considered a sure loser in the general. 

[Aliens]

The primary election is on Tuesday.  They recently had a short "debate" with the frontrunners Robin Kelly, Debbie Halvorson, and Anthony Beale on Chicago Tonight.  Basically, Halvorson is the only one of them who supports concealed carry.  All three of them support same-sex marriage and the airport in Peotone.  Kelly and Beale support medical marijuana.  

They also had a (far more entertaining) debate with some second-tier Democratic candidates over here.  Mel Reynolds is in this one.

[Tender Branson]

According to the latest poll, the pro-gun Debbie Halvorson will win tonight.

[smoltchanov]

According to the latest poll, the pro-gun Debbie Halvorson will win tonight.

Unlikely. Not impossible, but i expect Kelly by healthy (about 15%) margin...

[Beet]

According to the latest poll, the pro-gun Debbie Halvorson will win tonight.

Oh god no. Will there be a run-off? It's hard to imagine her winning the nomination with less than a quarter of the vote.

[minionofmidas]

According to the latest poll, the pro-gun Debbie Halvorson will win tonight.

Oh god no. Will there be a run-off? It's hard to imagine her winning the nomination with less than a quarter of the vote.

No runoffs outside the South.
Winning today would be the only way to keep Halvorson's career alive, of course, even though she'd be very vulnerable to a primary challenge.

[ill ind]

  A snowstorm is hitting Chicago today, so it will be interesting to see who wins this ultra ultra low turnout race.  IT was supposed to be rain until about 4:00pm, but at noon, it is already snowing very hard.  If weather is better in the south (Will and Kankakee Counties) that would help Halvorson.  If it is bad all over and the party turns out 'its' voters that would bode well for Kelly.

Ill_Ind

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Halvorson wins, how likely is it that the Green Party candidate wins the general election?  He is black and he had done really well in the 2010 Senate election.  I would like to see that.