Looks like PA was the tipping point state

[Devils30]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeVE&toomany=true

Won PA by 5% and CO by 5.5%

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I had predicted that Pennsylvania would be the tipping-point state in 2016. I was off by four years.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

:/

[Mehmentum]

Wow, so it looks like Romney was right to campaign in Pennsylvania, it was closer than many of the 'swing' states. 

[Devils30]

Yes but he thought he was swooping into PA for the kill! Obama by showing up probably would have done better in the Philly burbs judging by his suburban numbers elsewhere. Still, Hillary if she runs won't lose PA. Obama was miserable in western PA and nothing great in philly burbs yet won by 5. The growing parts of the state aren't trending R. Won't be shocked if PA "trends" D next time with a white nominee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anybody know if there are any uncounted ballots there?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Wow, so Obama won Colorado by more than 5%.  Dude...

[Blue3]

Wow, so Obama won Colorado by more than 5%.  Dude...

It was the stoners

[heatmaster]

If you have a Huntsman/Christie ticket in 2016, Pennsylvania could follow NJ example and tip into the GOP column.

[Badger]

Wow, so it looks like Romney was right to campaign in Pennsylvania, it was closer than many of the 'swing' states. 

Nah. All that time and money put nearly unopposed into the state only to finish a half point better than in CO? Quite the misallocated waste, imho.

[heatmaster]

Well the trend is going to be, that Obama is finishing smaller this time around, than in 2008, but Democrats are having a hard time trying to accept, that the anointed one's vote getting abilities have diminished and the fact, that Romney didn't lose out in a blow-out! They will be reminded by us good Republicans, Obama won smaller this time around. It will be like the scenario of JFK only winning by 49.7% in '60, yet after he was assassinated, everybody began to claim they had voted for him, when everybody knew they hadn't. Democrats and like-minded Obama voter's will be making assertions about the 2012 outcome which benefit's Obama and these assertions will be false and misleading, but that has never stopped Democrats before.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Well the trend is going to be, that Obama is finishing smaller this time around, than in 2008, but Democrats are having a hard time trying to accept, that the anointed one's vote getting abilities have diminished and the fact, that Romney didn't lose out in a blow-out! They will be reminded by us good Republicans, Obama won smaller this time around.

Cite some examples of people claiming the opposite, please.

[heatmaster]

Er....JFK in '60 by 49.7% yet after Dallas, 65% of the population claimed they voted for him, is an example...duh!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seriously, who the hell are you trying to persuade with this kind of rambling?

Nothing. Of. What. You. Post. Makes. Any. Goddamn. Sense.

Obama won by a smaller margin than in 2008. So what? You and the other GOP knuckleheads were absolutely sure he was going to lose by a landslide. Can anybody explain why they think that Obama might win? you said. That wasn't deluded at all, right? You, you republican hacks, throughout the year, have been the ones who have come with predictions that proved wrong all along. Meanwhile, Nate Silver, most liberal pundits and most Obama supporters here have always had the right idea of where the race stood. Certainly, nobody was predicting an Obama landslide.

So yeah, Obama won with a slightly reduced margin. And yet, he won more votes and a higher percentage than both of Clinton's and Bush's elections. He won by over 3 points despite a mediocre economy and the utter hatred of a sizable share of the population, despite facing probably one of the most electable candidates of the opposing party, and despite what appeared to be a disillusioned base. So you say he's got no mandate? Did W. Bush have a mandate after 2004? He won, and he won with over 50%. There is more than half of the country which wants him in office, which cannot be said of many of his predecessors. You can ramble as much as you want about evil lazy welfare queens who voted for gifts, of whatever despicable talking points your pathetic mind can come up with. This is a Democracy, and the people have chosen. Get over with it or move to Russia.

[Alcon]

Er....JFK in '60 by 49.7% yet after Dallas, 65% of the population claimed they voted for him, is an example...duh!

Uhh...how is ex post facto dishonesty about voting behavior in 1960 "proof" that Democrats are claiming now that Obama won by larger margins than in 2008?  I guess, besides the fact that it's a completely different concept and over 50 years off, that's a great example.

[Miles]

Does anybody know if there are any uncounted ballots there?

According to Wikipedia, the PA results aren't finalized yet, so possibly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anybody know if there are any uncounted ballots there?

According to Wikipedia, the PA results aren't finalized yet, so possibly.

Meh, let's hope the margin grows at least to 5.5 points. These results are a bit worrisome...

[Devils30]

Updated numbers have PA and CO virtually even (5.38 vs 5.39)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yes but he thought he was swooping into PA for the kill! Obama by showing up probably would have done better in the Philly burbs judging by his suburban numbers elsewhere. Still, Hillary if she runs won't lose PA. Obama was miserable in western PA and nothing great in philly burbs yet won by 5. The growing parts of the state aren't trending R. Won't be shocked if PA "trends" D next time with a white nominee.

I don't think the Romney campaign actually thought it would win PA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated numbers have PA and CO virtually even (5.38 vs 5.39)

Good to see PA has recovered a bit from these anemic numbers. Hopefully it keeps going up to around 6.

[tokar]

According to the PA elections website, 100% of 100% precincts are reporting. The numbers are greater than what USElectionAtlas has.

ROMNEY, MITT (REP)      2,668,122   46.7%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)   2,976,902   52.1%
A margin of 5.4%.

Colorado is also showing 5.4%. So I had to go down to the exact percent.

Pennsylvania - 5.402%
Colorado - 5.403%

Wow...so close!

Regarding PA vote total:
2012 - 5,715,895 votes (including 3rd party votes).
2008 - 6,015,476 votes
2004 - 5,769,590 votes

I was talking with a friend of mine who, when I told him that there were 300,000 fewer votes this year in PA, attributed the drop to the turnout/excitement which did not match 2008. He then asked how the number compared to 2004. When I told him the vote count was less than 2004 he was quite a bit perplexed.

I bring up the vote totals because I think the 300,000 vote drop is a bit odd. I'm not suggesting tampering of the numbers or the sort. I personally expected fewer votes in all states since excitement would not match 2008 levels, but not to the tune of 300,000 votes in PA. My personal guess is the misinformation with voter ID. I understand that there was a concerted effort to confuse voters about the voter ID law (through TV ads and the sort), even though it was put on hold. I am guessing a considerable number of voters thought the ID law was in place and did not vote.

If you have a Huntsman/Christie ticket in 2016, Pennsylvania could follow NJ example and tip into the GOP column.

First, Christie will have to survive the primary. Scratch that, first he needs to declare. Call me in 2 years.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Surprising, but not exactly a vindication of Romney's Pennsylvania strategy.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney dumped money in here at the last minute, and the Obama campaign failed to respond in kind. Probably a good decision on their part; otherwise Romney would have used those ads in actual swing states. The fact that PA voted for Obama by 5 points when he had almost nothing but the ground game on his side gives me hope.

[Beezer]

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

[DINGO Joe]

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

WV is heavily dependent on the coal industry and parts of Western PA are too, but Pittsburgh is more diversified and the Eastern part of the state has trended Dem and is bigger, too  Ironically, PA has done more to destroy the coal industry than anyone thanks to drilling in the Marcellus shale.  In short, I don't see PA being much like WV.