Looks like PA was the tipping point state
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  Looks like PA was the tipping point state
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Author Topic: Looks like PA was the tipping point state  (Read 11626 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2012, 07:09:37 PM »

It's worth noting that in 1996 Clinton got a smaller percentage of the vote in PA than in the country as a whole. There might be a recent R trend, but it's far from being clear.
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ajb
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« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2012, 07:19:09 PM »

It's worth noting that in 1996 Clinton got a smaller percentage of the vote in PA than in the country as a whole. There might be a recent R trend, but it's far from being clear.
Trends fluctuate, too. Ohio has trended in opposite directions in every election since 1996. Since by definition half the country has to trend D, and half trend R, at each election, it's tough to sort out which of those trends are meaningful, and which ones aren't.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2012, 07:21:13 PM »

It's worth noting that in 1996 Clinton got a smaller percentage of the vote in PA than in the country as a whole. There might be a recent R trend, but it's far from being clear.
Trends fluctuate, too. Ohio has trended in opposite directions in every election since 1996. Since by definition half the country has to trend D, and half trend R, at each election, it's tough to sort out which of those trends are meaningful, and which ones aren't.

Yeah, that's what I meant.
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tokar
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« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2012, 03:30:27 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2012, 03:34:35 AM by tokar »

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

No. Republicans will continue to convince themselves that they can make a legitimate play for Pennsylvania, but they have no shot.

Demographics of Philadelphia:
1.53 mil people (1.526 as of 2010 census)
44.2% Black (they went democratic 96-4, country-wide exit poll)
12.5% Hispanic (they went democratic 71-27, country-wide exit poll)
5.4% Asian (they went democratic 74-26, country-wide exit poll)

Check out my post from a week ago or so:
link

Quick TL;DR summary of the post:
In 2008, Philadelphia ALONE covered the vote margin in all Republican-won counties, and then some (477.7k to 317.9k)
In 2012, Philadelphia missed the margin of all Republican-won counties by 10k (467.2k to 477.k), but of course there were enough Democratic counties to cover that 10k margin (Allegheny provided an 88.9k margin).

The state is becoming increasingly dependent on the margins in Philadelphia. The whole area around Philadelphia continuously increases its % total of the statewide vote.
1992 - 33.07%
1996 - 32.13%
2000 - 32.42%
2004 - 33.08%
2008 - 33.69%
2012 - 34.21%

And these five counties are becoming more democratic. The individual county results are not representative of this trend (e.g. Philadelphia went 88.4% DEM in 2008, 82% in 2012), but the overall sum of the five counties is:
% DEM Vote
1992 - 51.22%
1996 - 58.07%
2000 - 61.34%
2004 - 62.87%
2008 - 66.36%
2012 - 65.21%

It is pretty difficult for Republicans to make up the vote margins in the rest of the state when 33% of the state votes 66% democratic (and this is not including the democratic bastions of Allegheny, Luzerne, Erie...there are several other Democratic counties, but these three go Dem+10 or more and have 100,000 votes...Allegheny has 600,000+ votes and goes DEM+15).

(Keep in mind that I am only referring to GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS...off-years give Democrats problems in PA).

Sure, you could argue that Christie might affect the vote in PA a bit should he be the GOP nominee in 2016, but I would argue that he wouldn't alter it all that much. For one, PA isn't NJ, and when I was living in PA he was not even on the radar of most Pennsylvanians (I'm sure most people aren't even aware of who he is). Sure, his publicity skyrocketed in the last month, but PA has its own Republican governor to worry about and he is a POS.
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Beezer
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2012, 05:06:19 AM »

Interesting stuff, thanks for your insights. What's the story with Dauphin County btw? Voted for Bush by 9 and now for Obama by around 6. Similar story in Monroe County which voted for Bush twice but was won by Obama by around 13 points. Just a better get out the vote effort by the Democrats?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2012, 07:21:42 AM »

Interesting stuff, thanks for your insights. What's the story with Dauphin County btw? Voted for Bush by 9 and now for Obama by around 6. Similar story in Monroe County which voted for Bush twice but was won by Obama by around 13 points. Just a better get out the vote effort by the Democrats?

Dauphin has a state capital (Harrisburg) where Obama got high turnout; there's also a lot of influx from Philly in Central PA. Monroe, IIRC, attracts a lot of retirees from New York.
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tokar
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« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2012, 09:19:09 PM »

Interesting stuff, thanks for your insights. What's the story with Dauphin County btw? Voted for Bush by 9 and now for Obama by around 6. Similar story in Monroe County which voted for Bush twice but was won by Obama by around 13 points. Just a better get out the vote effort by the Democrats?

It seems something has fundamentally changed, as those two counties went Republican from 1992 through 2004.

My pull-it-out-of-my-ass answer with Dauphin is that it is experiencing the usual city effect considering Harrisburg is the biggest city in Central PA for miles (hell, they made a movie based in Harrisburg: Lucky Numbers) . Dauphin encompasses a considerable part of Harrisburgh, ranked 9th by Population in PA (49.5k). Population inside the city limits went up (estimated from the 2010 census) for the first time in a long time (albeit marginally). However, the metro area population went up a bit more considerably over a 10 year period, 509k to 549k, 8% (higher than the state-wide rate of 3.53%. Side note, Philadelphia metro growth was 4.9% over the same 10 year period).

As far as Monroe goes...I have no clue. It is bordered by heavy republican counties in New Jersey on the East, and a couple heavy republican PA counties to the North, along with some heavy Democratic counties in PA to the Northwest and South. There are no major cities in the county (Stroudsburg? pssh please).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2012, 09:22:08 PM »

If CO drifts further towards the Dems because of Hispanic growth, then how else does the GOP get to 270?  If not PA, then what's the alternative?
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« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2012, 09:31:17 PM »

Monroe has grown a lot because it is becoming NYC/NJ exurbia and this has helped Democrats (probably because the Pocono mountain resort atmosphere attracts a certain kind folks?); East Strousburg is a college town.
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Torie
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« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2012, 09:33:35 PM »

If CO drifts further towards the Dems because of Hispanic growth, then how else does the GOP get to 270?  If not PA, then what's the alternative?


The GOP needs to tack. Period. It needs to become more similar to the Tories in Britain. There is no alternative, absent some fiscal cliff collapse, that involves  a tectonic plate shift. In short, absent extreme stress,  the die is cast that the US is going to become more like Western Europe.
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AndyAJS
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« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2012, 09:37:57 PM »

If CO drifts further towards the Dems because of Hispanic growth, then how else does the GOP get to 270?  If not PA, then what's the alternative?


The GOP needs to tack. Period. It needs to become more similar to the Tories in Britain. There is no alternative, absent some fiscal cliff collapse, that involves  a tectonic plate shift. In short, absent extreme stress,  the die is cast that the US is going to become more like Western Europe.

Since Western Europe has been getting more like the US over the last 50 years I don't think the US is going to change very much.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2012, 10:22:54 PM »

Monroe's growth is almost all minorities; from 2000-2010 the white population grew by 2% but the black population grew by 159%. The Poconos were a traditional vacation area for blacks from New York City because it had a de-segregated resort owned by a wealthy black businessman and former judge even in the 1950's when such a thing was mostly unheard of. Up until fairly recently the year-round population was still almost all white though, but this is changing rapidly.
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Benj
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« Reply #37 on: November 28, 2012, 10:28:52 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2012, 10:31:19 PM by Benj »

Monroe has grown a lot because it is becoming NYC/NJ exurbia and this has helped Democrats (probably because the Pocono mountain resort atmosphere attracts a certain kind folks?); East Strousburg is a college town.

It's not really exurbs. It's more like resort towns. The minority population is oddly high there for a resort area, too, especially in Coolbaugh and Stroudsburg; not sure why. (It is cheaper than, say, the Hamptons or the Jersey Shore or the Catskills, so maybe that explains it.) There's a big minority population in nearby Lehman, in Pike County, as well (and that where most of the Democrats in Pike County live).
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« Reply #38 on: November 28, 2012, 11:25:37 PM »

The post above your's explains the minority population.
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Beezer
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« Reply #39 on: November 29, 2012, 07:52:47 AM »

If CO drifts further towards the Dems because of Hispanic growth, then how else does the GOP get to 270?  If not PA, then what's the alternative?


I'd argue that there is none. Seems to me like the best path to 270 for the GOP would be to try and win FL, OH and PA and hope to hold on to all the other states that they have. PA has been trending somewhat to the GOP (check that, it hasn't moved as far to the left as the rest of the country) while the next closest state, Colorado, has become rather blue.

Between 04 and 2012 the US (sans PA) has moved 6.16 points towards the Democrats while PA has moved just 2.90 points to the left. Of course one can argue that it's still moved to the left (Kerry won it by 2.5 points, Obama's leading by 5.4) and cosidering its Democratic credentials it was always going to be lagging behind the rest of the country but it's now just 2 points to the left of the rest of the country. Ie, if a GOP candidate wins the popular vote by 2-3 points, PA could be in play. Then again one has to wonder if a Republican will ever again win the popular vote by more than 2.5 points.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #40 on: November 29, 2012, 09:19:37 AM »

My understanding of Monroe County was that they threw up some cheap exurban housing and lured people from the city to live there with the low prices and low property taxes relative to NJ, but the commute on I-80 is terrible. Kind of like the town of Maricopa south of Phoenix. The population has doubled in 20 years so it has to be exurban development.
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« Reply #41 on: November 29, 2012, 10:07:36 AM »

When does exurban growth make an area more Democratic though?
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hopper
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« Reply #42 on: November 29, 2012, 10:46:52 AM »

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

No. Republicans will continue to convince themselves that they can make a legitimate play for Pennsylvania, but they have no shot.

Demographics of Philadelphia:
1.53 mil people (1.526 as of 2010 census)
44.2% Black (they went democratic 96-4, country-wide exit poll)
12.5% Hispanic (they went democratic 71-27, country-wide exit poll)
5.4% Asian (they went democratic 74-26, country-wide exit poll)

Check out my post from a week ago or so:
link

Quick TL;DR summary of the post:
In 2008, Philadelphia ALONE covered the vote margin in all Republican-won counties, and then some (477.7k to 317.9k)
In 2012, Philadelphia missed the margin of all Republican-won counties by 10k (467.2k to 477.k), but of course there were enough Democratic counties to cover that 10k margin (Allegheny provided an 88.9k margin).

The state is becoming increasingly dependent on the margins in Philadelphia. The whole area around Philadelphia continuously increases its % total of the statewide vote.
1992 - 33.07%
1996 - 32.13%
2000 - 32.42%
2004 - 33.08%
2008 - 33.69%
2012 - 34.21%

And these five counties are becoming more democratic. The individual county results are not representative of this trend (e.g. Philadelphia went 88.4% DEM in 2008, 82% in 2012), but the overall sum of the five counties is:
% DEM Vote
1992 - 51.22%
1996 - 58.07%
2000 - 61.34%
2004 - 62.87%
2008 - 66.36%
2012 - 65.21%

It is pretty difficult for Republicans to make up the vote margins in the rest of the state when 33% of the state votes 66% democratic (and this is not including the democratic bastions of Allegheny, Luzerne, Erie...there are several other Democratic counties, but these three go Dem+10 or more and have 100,000 votes...Allegheny has 600,000+ votes and goes DEM+15).

(Keep in mind that I am only referring to GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS...off-years give Democrats problems in PA).

Sure, you could argue that Christie might affect the vote in PA a bit should he be the GOP nominee in 2016, but I would argue that he wouldn't alter it all that much. For one, PA isn't NJ, and when I was living in PA he was not even on the radar of most Pennsylvanians (I'm sure most people aren't even aware of who he is). Sure, his publicity skyrocketed in the last month, but PA has its own Republican governor to worry about and he is a POS.
Christie could put PA into play and make it a battleground state like CO is now.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #43 on: November 29, 2012, 10:55:36 AM »

When does exurban growth make an area more Democratic though?

This happens sometimes around huge cities like NY and LA where people are moving directly from the city into traditionally Republican areas, and they are going so very far out that the housing has to be cheap to sell and the commute turns off loads of people.
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« Reply #44 on: November 29, 2012, 11:11:00 AM »

Well look at the nearby areas in NJ. Though I guess housing isn't as cheap there. But I suspect this has more to do with the resort towns.
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Beezer
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« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2012, 12:48:14 PM »

BTW, looking at the latest data it looks as if Philadelphia County's winning margin alone was once again enough for Obama to carry the state (492k vs Romney's 482k lead in all Republican counties).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #46 on: March 02, 2013, 10:25:10 AM »

Monroe has grown a lot because it is becoming NYC/NJ exurbia and this has helped Democrats (probably because the Pocono mountain resort atmosphere attracts a certain kind folks?); East Strousburg is a college town.

Resorts need open-minded, if not brilliant, people, to do the customer contact. They are going to meet strangers, and they had better not alienate customers by disparaging differences from local norms. They dare not snicker at mixed-race or same-sex couples. Hospitality workers are probably more liberal than similarly-low-paid and ill-educated industrial workers in rural areas  because they are more open-minded by necessity.

The tourist trade is big in Colorado, Nevada, and Florida... and I would not be surprised if its workers tipped those states. Pennsylvania would seem more the sort of State to generate out-of-state tourists than to attract out-of-state tourists.     
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Blackacre
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« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2013, 08:36:11 PM »

It wouldn't have been the tipping pont state if Obama actually campaigned there at all. It's a fluke that it was PA and not CO.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #48 on: March 06, 2013, 10:05:59 AM »

It wouldn't have been the tipping pont state if Obama actually campaigned there at all. It's a fluke that it was PA and not CO.

The tipping point was in fact Colorado.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #49 on: March 06, 2013, 03:51:48 PM »

It wouldn't have been the tipping pont state if Obama actually campaigned there at all. It's a fluke that it was PA and not CO.

The tipping point was in fact Colorado.

Point is, had Obama actually campaigned there, we wouldn't be talking about it as a GOP prospect in the future.
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