Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!
I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.
Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?
The middle-class white ethnic Catholic vote (largely Italian and Irish) in NYC has trended Republican in citywide races, and, in some cases, even federal races. You see that not just on Staten Island but in places like Howard Beach, Whitestone, Rockaway Park and Breezy Point in Queens, Throggs Neck, Country Club and Woodlawn in the Bronx and the parts of Southern Brooklyn that aren't Jewish or Russian like Bay Ridge.
Yeah, but this election actually reversed something of a Democratic trend in SI for mayoral elections. Even Bill Thompson ran only 17.5% behind his citywide % 4 years ago, and it hasn't gone minus 30% for a Democratic candidate in 20 years. It's hard to believe there's a mid-40's ceiling there for Democrats running for mayor when even Obama narrowly won Richmond County (Sandy's effect duly noted, but the point remains the same).
I still suspect there's something else at work here.
It is not a ceiling, but there isn´t much elasticity either. The north shore of the island is getting more and more urban - that is why you do not get Republican landslides either. However, if you look at the two southern city council districts on the island...
