NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Tender Branson]

Weiner wouldn't change things that much:

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

    26% Christine Quinn
    15% Anthony Weiner
    12% John Liu
    11% Bill de Blasio
    11% Bill Thompson
     2% Sal Albanese
     1% Other
    22% Undecided

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

    30% Christine Quinn
    15% Bill de Blasio
    14% Bill Thompson
    11% John Liu
      2% Sal Albanese
      2% Other
    26% Undecided

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/416-weiner-candidacy-for-mayor-could-scramble-democratic-primary-contest

[Tender Branson]

Quinn drops to 25%, Weiner is already second with 15%.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1894

2013 looks to be the year when then wife-cheaters return ...

[Tender Branson]

He already has his campaign website on, incl. a first campaign video with his baby child and wife who supports him, plus a 64-point plan for NYC called "Keys to the City":

http://www.anthonyweiner.com

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen says Weiner cuts Quinn-lead to 6 points:

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/may_2013/nyc_mayor_quinn_24_weiner_18

[Tender Branson]

The NYT has a pic of who's running:

[Tender Branson]

Weiner cuts margin to 5 points, says the new Marist poll:

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

    24% Christine Quinn
    19% Anthony Weiner
    12% Bill de Blasio
    11% Bill Thompson
      8% John Liu
      1% Sal Albanese
    <1% Erick Salgado
      1% Other
    23% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Quinn receives 24% followed by Weiner with 19%, de Blasio with 14%, Thompson with 13%, Liu with 8%, Albanese with 1%, and Salgado with less than 1%.  21% of likely Democrats are undecided.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/528-weiner-shows-gains-on-the-heels-of-candidacy-announcement

[Tender Branson]

The latest New Yorker cover:

[Tender Branson]

New NYT/Siena poll:

25% Quinn
16% Thompson
14% de Blasio
10% Weiner

Among Democrats who say they will definitely vote in the primary, Ms. Quinn is backed by 26 percent, followed by 19 percent for Mr. Thompson and 14 percent for Mr. de Blasio. A runoff will be held on Oct. 1 if none of the candidates win support from at least 40 percent.

...

44% Spitzer
35% Stringer

The citywide poll was conducted on landline phones and cellphones Aug. 2 to 7, among 505 registered Democrats; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Data collection was conducted by Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/09/nyregion/quinn-leads-democratic-candidates-for-mayor-poll-finds.html

[Tender Branson]

To me, De Blasio looks like the most acceptable out of those people.

[Tender Branson]

Do you guys think de Blasio can beat Thompson in the runoff?

Quinnipiac says yes.

And Quinnipiac was already right on the NJ primary just a few days ago.

[Tender Branson]

And because people forget that the Republicans ARE trying to win this: Joe Lhota is dominating the Republican primary and will likely be the nominee.

Quinnipiac's latest poll disagrees:

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Problem:

"The survey includes 101 New York City likely Republican Primary Voters with a margin of error of +/- 9.8 percentage points."

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac now has Bill De Blasio close to avoiding a runoff. And even then he would clobber Quinn and Thompson:

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[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

41% De Blasio
24% Thompson
18% Quinn
17% Nobodies

51% Spitzer
49% Stringer

[Tender Branson]

Good to see De Blasio above 40%.

Stringer seems to be winning too, which is good news for Quinnipiac and not so good news for PPP.

[Tender Branson]

De Blasio lead is now falling, almost approaching Christie-levels:

65-26-3 (-3,+2,+1)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1972

[Tender Branson]

Last Marist/NBC poll:

65% Bill de Blasio (D)
24% Joe Lhota (R)
  4% Adolfo Carrion (I)
  1% Others
  6% Undecided

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/114-de-blasio-with-big-lead-over-lhota-going-into-election-day