2016: Back to the Future or Forward to the Present

[NHI]

June 11, 2015

"...I announce my intentions to seek the Republican Nomination for the Presidency of the United States. For we as a party must comeback as a big and open party, that is inclusive to every Americans, because our message appeals to all Americans."

Jeb Bush entered the Republican Nomination in late spring, becoming the instant frontrunner in a pack that include; Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell, Susanna Martinez, Rand Paul, Jim Talent and John Thune. Ryan previously led with Jindal and Paul coming in second and third respectively. Bush's entrance shook-up the Republican field and impacted the forming Democratic primary race which included, Martin O'Malley, Mark Warner, Brian Schweitzer, John Hickenlooper and Deval Patrick. Speculation remained on the three big guns: Andrew Cuomo, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.

Cuomo's entrance hedged on Clinton's decision, and the same was seen with Biden. Without the former Secretary of State in the race, there was no clear consensus for a frontrunner.

Bush's entrance brought forth endorsements from Marco Rubio and Kelly Ayotte.

Bush campaigns in NH. "Time for New Hampshire and America to have a fresh start."

Republican Nomination Poll:

Bush: 26%

Ryan: 18%
Paul: 16%
Jindal: 11%
McDonnell: 9%
Thune: 7%
Martinez: 6%
Talent: 3%

Democratic Nomination Poll:

Undecided/Other: 45%
Warner: 20%
Patrick: 14%
O'Malley: 10%
Schweitzer: 7%
Hickenlooper: 4%

Obama Approval Rating:

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 38%
No Opinion/Undecided: 11%

Will She or Won't She?

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans

Bush: 25%
Ryan: 20%

Paul: 14%
Jindal: 13%
Martinez: 10%
Thune: 8%
McDonnell: 4%
Talent: 4%

[NHI]

Thune Ends Bid, Does not Endorse

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats

Undecided/Other: 25%

Warner: 22%

O'Malley: 19%

Hickenlooper: 15%

Patrick: 13%

Schweitzer: 6%

(Los Angeles AP) - Democrats saw a major contender enter as Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced his candidacy for the President. The Former Mayor of Los Angeles was speculated as a candidate for the Democratic nomination, but he attempted to lay below the radar until late June...
Villaraigosa enters an dissembled field, unlike the Republican side with no clear frontrunner, as many Democrats still ponder whether or not Hillary Clinton will declare a run...

Democratic Nomination Poll:

Warner: 21%

Villaraigosa: 19%

Patrick: 15%

O'Malley: 13%
Schweitzer: 8%
Hickenlooper: 4%
Other/Undecided: 20%

The Republican Field received a shakeup with the entrance of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie into the race for the Republican nomination. Christie stated in his announcement speech that his record and leadership in New Jersey is what America is looking for and that he can bring the nation together. Aides around Christie have said that he stands a better chance against Clinton or any Democrat, as he is a straight shooter and does not carry the baggage of a political dynasty. With a veiled hit like that let the games begin!

Republican Nomination: Poll

Bush: 23%

Christie: 23%

Paul: 17%

Ryan: 14%

Jindal: 9%

Martinez: 8%

McDonnell: 3%

Talent: 2%

Christie and Bush are tied for first and are seen as the top two for the nomination. In third Senator Rand Paul eclipsed Paul Ryan, who dropped to fourth. Both Bobby Jindal and Bob McDonnell saw major drops in the polls with both candidates falling to single digit support. Martinez's numbers have slowly gone up, while Jim Talent has remained stuck at 2-3% in both national and state polls.

SHE'S IN!

July 31st, 2015: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy for President. Speculations swirled for years as Clinton made up her mind on whether or to run. The decision came in late spring, upon seeing the Republican field and looking not only at the chance to make history, but to continue moving the country in a better direction.

"I'm running on my own record, and on my own ideas. I'm running because I believe we've as a nation must keep going and never stall and unfortunately that the way the Republicans see things. I will keep America moving forward, now and always..." (Excerpt from Clinton's announcement speech)

Shortly following her announcement Vice President Biden issued a statement saying that he would not be running for President and would be back Hillary Clinton.

Cuomo endorses Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire, saying "...Let's make history and keep this country moving in the right direction with Hillary Clinton as the next President of the United States!"

Democratic Nomination Poll:

Clinton: 49%

Warner: 16%

Villaraigosa: 11%

O'Malley: 10%

Patrick: 7%

Schweitzer: 5%

General Election Polls:

Clinton v. Christie

Clinton: 49%

Christie: 41%

Undecided: 9%

Clinton v. Paul:

Clinton: 55%

Paul: 39%

Undecided: 6%

Clinton v. Bush:

Clinton: 50%

Bush: 43%

Undecided: 5%

Clinton v. Martinez:

Clinton: 52%

Martinez: 38%

Undecided: 10%

Clinton v. Ryan:

Clinton: 50%

Ryan: 40%

Undecided: 10%

Clinton v. Jindal:

Clinton: 52%

Jindal: 39%

Undecided: 9%

Clinton v. McDonnell:

Clinton: 54%

McDonnell: 38%

Undecided: 8%

Clinton v. Talent:

Clinton: 59%

Talent: 34%

Undecided: 8%

"Hillary Clinton's in the race now and the attacks from the right have already started. The so-called 'Demonize Hillary strategy', the problem with that is her approval ratings are higher than all the candidates on the rights, save for Chris Christie who holds a fifty-seven percent approval rating in his home state of New Jersey. But people like Bush, Ryan and Jindal have all begun going after Clinton. Now if you look at the recently released polls they're grasping at straws. In every polls she's above fifty percent and is trouncing her Republican rivals. Only against Christie does she poll at forty-nine percent, but she's still beating him by seven points..."

Post Debate 1 Poll: Republicans

Bush: 23%

Christie: 22%

Paul: 17%

Martinez: 13%

Ryan: 10%

Jindal: 9%

McDonnell: 4%
Talent: 2%

Post Debate 1 Poll: Democrats

Clinton: 42%

Warner: 16%

Villarigosa: 16%

Patrick: 9%

Schweitzer: 7%

O'Malley: 6%

Hickenlooper: 4%

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans

Bush: 22%

Paul: 19%

Christie: 18%

Martinez: 16%

Ryan: 11%

Jindal: 10%

McDonnell:

Talent: 3%

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats

Clinton: 45%

Warner: 20%

Schweitzer: 16%

Patrick: 11%

O'Malley: 5%

Hickenlooper: 2%

[NHI]

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans

Christie: 22%

Bush: 20%

Paul: 20%

Ryan: 14%

Martinez: 11%

Jindal: 6%

McDonnell: 4%

Talent: 2%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats

Clinton: 51%

Patrick: 20%

Warner: 13%

Schweitzer: 7%

O'Malley: 4%

Hickenlooper: 2%

Obama Approval Ratings:

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 37%

Undecided/No Opinion: 12%

Unemployment Rate: November 2015

6.5%

Right-Track Wrong-Track:

Right-Track: 47%

Wrong Track: 49%

Favorability: Hillary Clinton

Favorable: 64%

Unfavorable: 33%

Favorability: Chris Christie

Favorable: 52%

Unfavorable: 42%

Favorability: Jeb Bush

Favorable: 51%

Unfavorable: 43%

Favorability: Rand Paul

Favorable: 49%

Unfavorable: 40%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is good, keep it up.

Also, just a nitpick here, but you bolded the wrong thing in the Right-Track/Wrong-Track poll.

[Maxwell]

Jim Talent? Oh gosh, it looks like he's done already.

Great Timeline!

[bloombergforpresident]

I don't think Jim Talent would run without getting elected to higher office again....but great timeline!

[NHI]

Talent Drops Out, Endorses Bush[/b]

Register Endorses The Women Candidates; Clinton & Martinez

Hillary Clinton received the endorsement of The Des Moines Register, came as no surprise, while the picking of Susanna Martinez shook up the Republican race instantly.

..."Governor Martinez offers a voice that is refreshing in the Republican Party. She is what the party needs and is the best candidate to win in November 2016..."

Martinez's numbers slowly rose through the summer and early fall, and the endorsement of the Des Moines Register was seen as the needed boost for her campaign.

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans

Bush: 23%

Paul: 21%

Martinez: 21%

Christie: 11%

Ryan: 9%

Jindal: 8%

McDonnell: 6%

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats

Clinton: 42%

Warner: 20%

Schweitzer: 15%
Patrick: 12%
O'Malley: 8%

Christie Pulling Resources Out of Iowa; Focuses on NH

Martinez For President

Newspaper Endorsements

Christie:
Boston Herald
Concord Monitor
Des Moines Register
Fosters Daily Democrat
Nashua Telegraph
Portsmouth Herald


Martinez:
Union Leader

Bush:
Boston Globe

Paul:
Berlin Reporter
The Littleton Courier
The Coos County Democrat
The Keene Sentential

Clinton:
Concord Monitor
Boston Globe
Boston Herald
Foster Daily Democrat
Nashua Telegraph
Portsmouth Herald

Key Surrogates/Endorsements: NH

Christie:
State Senator Jeb Bradley
Frm. Gov. John Sununu
State Senate Pres. Peter Bragdon
Frm. Cong. Frank Guinta

Bush:
Sen. Kelly Ayotte
Frm. Sen. Judd Gregg
Frm. Cong. Charlie Bass

Martinez:
Rep. Kevin Smith, Dis. 1

Clinton:
Gov. Maggie Hassan
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
Rep. Annie Kuster, Dis. 2
Frm. Gov. John Lynch

[NHI]

Martinez, Paul Shine in Final GOP Debate

Paul Campaigns in Des Moines before a large crowd of 3,500 people.

Clinton Set to Dominate in the Caucuses

Bush holds onto his narrow lead in Iowa, "We're going to win."

Final Iowa Caucuses Poll: Republicans

Bush: 24.1%

Paul: 23.4%
Martinez: 23.3%
Christie: 9.7%
Ryan: 7.6%
Jindal: 6.0%
McDonnell: 4.8%

Final Iowa Caucuses Poll: Democrats

Clinton: 42.8%

Warner: 20.0%
Schweitzer: 17.6%
Patrick: 11.0%
O'Malley: 5.4%
Hickenlooper: 3.7%

"Hillary Clinton is heading towards victory in the Iowa Caucuses, but the Republican race is up for grabs. Jeb Bush holds a narrow lead, but Governor Martinez and Senator Rand Paul are fighting for second in a very close contest." -- Chris Matthews

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (1%)

Bush: 23.7%

Martinez: 22.8%

Paul: 20.7%

Jindal: 10.4%
Christie: 9.3%
Ryan: 7.2%
McDonnell: 5.8%

"The first round of results are coming in and we are looking at a very close race on the Republican side with Governor Bush and Governor Martinez fighting for first. Another surprise of the night is Governor Bobby Jindal who is now vying for fourth. This is quite a turnaround considering her was polling in single digits a few days ago." -- Chris Matthews

"On the Democratic side we are going to project that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. No surprise with this victory, the question remains how big of a margin she will receive and who finishes second or third." -- Rachel Maddow

"That right whoever does finish second or third will be able to claim some momentum and position themselves as the Anti-Clinton if you will. Republicans are always looking for the Anti- candidate to the frontrunner and this year with the Democrats, though I suspect he won't be going too far." -- Chris Matthews

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (2%)

Clinton: 44.1%

Schweitzer: 20.0%
Warner: 19.8%
Patrick: 8.4%
O'Malley: 4.0%
Hickenlooper: 3.6%

"Can we first take a minute and look at the historic nature of this moment. I know we're focused on the politics of it, but Hillary Clinton, my God. She ran for President eight years ago, came in third in Iowa, went onto win New Hampshire, but still lost the nomination to President Obama. She became his Secretary of State, did a hell of a job there for four years and tonight, it's only one victory and we still have many more contests to go, but she is on the cusps of winning the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States, being the first woman to be nominated on a major party ticket. That's America for you and we're watching history tonight, living history to quote the title of her memoir." -- Chris Matthews

"Indeed Chris, Indeed." -- Rachel Maddow

"The next title will need to be Making History [Laughs]." -- Chris Matthews

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (3%)

Bush: 23.5%

Martinez: 23.2%

Paul: 21.0%

Jindal: 10.6%
Christie: 9.1%
Ryan: 7.0%
McDonnell: 4.9%

[Maxwell]

I think Martinez pulls out of Iowa with an upset win, its starting to look that way.

[NHI]

MARTINEZ TAKES LEAD OVER BUSH
PAUL TO FINISH THIRD

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (50%)
Martinez: 23.7%
Bush: 23.0%
Paul: 21.4%
Jindal: 10.5%
Christie: 8.9%
Ryan: 7.3%
McDonnell: 4.1%

SEN. PAUL ADDRESSES SUPPORTERS.

"Governor Susana Martinez is now leading Governor Jeb Bush by .09 percent. She has been close behind the Florida Governor all evening and has now taken the lead in the Iowa Caucuses." -- Rachel Maddow

"We did project that Senator Rand Paul will finish third in the Iowa Caucuses, certainly a upsetting loss for the Paul campaign. They came into Iowa and thought they could take it, but the numbers were never there." -- Chris Matthews.

"We're also learning that Governor McDonnell who is projected to finish last in the Iowa Caucuses is expected to withdraw from the race either tonight in his speech or early tomorrow morning. No word yet on a possible endorsement." -- Rachel Maddow

"An interesting note that we should bring up tonight is that Chris Christie is not even in Iowa. Tonight he's in New Hampshire. He held a rally there around eight this evening and is expected to hit the ground running tomorrow. Like John McCain in 2008, Christie pulled out of Iowa and is making a play for New Hampshire, going after those blue collar, yankee Republicans, and Reagan Democrats. I think this is going to be the state to watch, because there is a libertarian presence in the state and Ron Paul did very well there four years, finishing second to Mitt Romney. He may have finished third tonight, but I suspect Senator Paul to come back with a vengeance in that state starting tomorrow." -- Joe Scarborough

"And Hillary Clinton is now addressing her supporters in Iowa, after finishing first in the Iowa Caucuses." -- Rachel Maddow

CLINTON WINS IOWA CAUCUSES

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (48%

Clinton: 44.9%

Schweitzer: 21.7%
Warner: 17.5%
Patrick: 7.8%
O'Malley: 4.3%
Hickenlooper: 2.8%

"Hillary Clinton the big winner in Iowa, now goes into New Hampshire with momentum. Now what about her challengers?" -- Rachel Maddow.

"The men running are looking to get name recognition or for the VP spot. The only credible challenger for Clinton going forward is Governor Schweitzer. I suspect all the rest will be gone in the next couple days or following New Hampshire." -- Joe Scarborough

"The Democrats want Clinton. The party leaders, the grassroots, everyone wants Hillary Clinton, and you can tell she wants this badly. She came close eight years ago. She served four years as Secretary of State, she's had some time to rest and write her memoir and now she's ready and I don't think anyone can stop her." -- Chris Matthews.

"Looking at the Republican Race and it's starting to appear that Governor Martinez will win tonight, what happens going forward for the GOP, particularly Jeb Bush?" -- Rachel Maddow

"Martinez is probably going to win tonight, which will change the face of this race. There is the chance she becomes a one hit wonder like many Iowa Caucuses winners, but she does appear to have support in the grassroots movement and could position herself as the Anti-Bush candidate going forward. As for Jeb Bush he's in trouble. Many in the party establishment want him, but conservatives don't trust him. They think he is a Rhino, they're sick of the Bush name and fear his nomination and candidacy will spell doom for the party. Christie also has that problem, though to a smaller extent. His path to the nomination is a comeback in New Hampshire and then surviving the South and driving Bush out of it by Super Tuesday." -- Joe Scarborough

"And MSNBC can now project at 11:49 that Governor Susana Martinez is the winner of the Iowa Caucuses." -- Rachel Maddow

Iowa Caucuses: Republican (71%)

Martinez: 23.9%

Bush: 22.7%
Paul: 21.9%
Jindal: 11.0%
Christie: 8.7%
Ryan: 6.9%
McDonnell: 3.9%

MARTINEZ TRIUMPHS IN IOWA CAUCUSES

"I know there are Iowa surprises and New Hampshire has a way of leveling the field, but tonight does feel different." -- Chris Matthews

Post Iowa: New Hampshire Poll (Republicans)

Christie: 22%
Paul: 21%
Bush: 20%
Martinez: 18%
Ryan: 10%
Jindal: 6%

Post Iowa Poll: New Hampshire (Democrats)

Clinton: 49%

Patrick: 19%

Warner: 18%
Schweitzer: 8%
O'Malley: 5%

Post Iowa National Poll: (Republicans)

Bush: 21%

Christie: 21%

Martinez: 20%

Paul: 19%

Ryan: 10%
Jindal: 6%

Martinez heads to NH, hoping to capitalize on her Iowa win.

JINDAL TO SOUTH CAROLINA

O'MALLEY & MCDONNELL BOW OUT

O'Malley Backs Clinton, McDonnell Undecided

Bush and Christie Battle for New Hampshire

PAUL LOOKS TO PULL AN UPSET IN GRANITE STATE

ENTER THE BIG GUNS

Pres. Obama joins Frm. Pres. Clinton and Sec. Clinton in NH where he endorsed his one time rival and former Secretary of State.
"New Hampshire knows a thing or two about picking a President, and eight years ago this state propelled Secretary Clinton to a victory over me, so you guys know something right...I stand by her, I'm proud of her work and passioned by the vision she has for America, which is why she must be the next President of the United States of America!"

"Obama's endorsement of Clinton is interesting. It comes after a decisive landslide victory in Iowa, she really doesn't need it, but I get the feeling that the party wants to wrap up this nomination early, because it's looking to be a long protracted fight on the Republican's side and they want to start laying the groundwork sooner rather than later." -- Chris Matthews.

"I think you've said it Chris. It's all but certain that we're going to have three different winners over Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This fight is going to go on, and with the Democrats everyone knows Brian Schweitzer or Deval Patrick is not going to be the nominee, they're testing the waters or lining up to be Vice President. The President's endorsement of Hillary Clinton is a way of bringing the party together and uniting behind Hillary." -- Joe Scarborough

"I suspect we'll see Patrick and Warner gone after New Hampshire, with Schweitzer staying through South Carolina, because for him this is either about the VP spot or laying the groundwork for 2024, assuming Clinton wins and serves two terms, which I think if she wins it's a done deal." -- Chris Matthews

Christie Fights for Political Life

Chris Christie is holding onto the narrowest lead in the New Hampshire Primary, according to the latest Suffolk University Poll. The poll shows Christie with 21%, followed by Senator Rand Paul with 20%. Coming third is Governor Bush who holds 19%, with Governor Martinez coming in fourth with 17%. With the rest of the contenders polling in the single digits, there is still 11% undecided, which could make a difference the winning candidate.

Final NH Debate Reactions: (Republicans)

"Christie is breaking Ronald Reagan's eleventh commandment. He's just crucifying Jeb Bush, going after his tenure as Governor, as well as his family name and the political baggage. This is damaging stuff for the party." -- Joe Scarborough

"The best line of the night was Christie saying, 'America has elected one Bush too many.' This may help Christie in the state, but he does have to contend with what I call the Ron/Rand Paul faction that is alive in this state and I would not underestimate it. Nevertheless Tuesday night is going to be a fun night on the Republican side." -- Chris Matthews

Final New Hampshire Primary Poll: (Republicans)

Christie: 23%

Paul: 23%
Bush: 19%
Martinez: 18%
Ryan: 10%
Jindal: 6%

Final New Hampshire Primary Poll: (Democrats)

Clinton: 50%

Patrick: 22%

Warner: 16%

Schweitzer: 10%

[Maxwell]

I hope the Dem Nomination gets more interesting and Patrick pulls a surprise surge, but I doubt it.

[NHI]

Dixville Notch: New Hampshire Primary

Democrats: (12)

Clinton: 7

Patrick: 4

Schweitzer: 1

Republicans: (9)

Christie: 3

Paul: 3

Martinez: 2
Bush: 1

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (2%)

Clinton: 40.6%

Patrick: 29.8%

Schweitzer: 17.1%
Warner: 11.2%

Republican Primary: Republican (3%)

Christie: 25.8%

Paul: 25.6%

Bush: 19.2%

Martinez: 17.0%
Ryan: 7.9%
Jindal: 4.2%

"Both races are too close to call. Hillary Clinton holds a large lead, but a late surge by Governor Patrick is putting this race into the undecided column." -- Rachel Maddow

"The Republican side is too close to call with Governor Christie leading Senator Paul by .02 percent. This one is a real nail bitter." -- Chris Matthews

"MSNBC can now project that Hillary Clinton is the winner in the New Hampshire primary. Now many of you are probably wondering why we are projecting this race with only 4% counted, now 5% counted. The reason is the exit polls Mrs. Clinton is running way ahead of her opponents." -- Rachel Maddow

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (5%)

Clinton: 42.9%

Patrick: 29.5%

Schweitzer: 15.1%
Warner: 11.2%

New Hampshire Primary: Republican (6%)

Christie: 25.7%

Paul: 25.7%

Bush: 19.1%

Martinez: 17.3%

Ryan: 7.7%

Jindal: 4.1%

[justW353]

This is great. Keep it up.

[retromike22]

I sooooo hope this is what actually happens.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Clinton versus Martinez would be so interesting to see in real life. Keep up the good work here. I'm loving it.

[LiberalJunkie]

I would expect southern states to vote for Hillary if up against Martinez.

[NHI]

"...MSNBC is now projecting that Senator Rand Paul is the winner of the New Hampshire Primary. He edges out Chris Christie for first tonight, causing a second shakeup to this Repubican nomination cycle." -- Rachel Maddow

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans (79%)

Paul: 25.9%

Christie: 25.0%

Bush: 18.8%

Martinez: 18.1%

Ryan: 7.5%
Jindal: 3.7%

Pres. Clinton warms up the crowd before Hillary's entrance.

"President Clinton in usual way seems to be revving up the crowd for Mrs. Clinton before he speech tonight. While many thought a Patrick surge was possible as the numbers continue to come in, it appears like Hillary Clinton will win a tremendous victory tonight, claiming at least forty-seven percent of the vote." -- Rachel Maddow

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (80%)

Clinton: 47.1%

Patrick: 24.4%

Schweitzer: 17.5%

Warner: 9.6%

A PAUL SURPRISE

WARNER BACKS CLINTON

"I'm suspending my campaign and endorse Hillary Clinton for President of the United States."

MUMS THE WORD, PATRICK EYES SOUTH CAROLINA

"The New Hampshire Primary has put Hillary Clinton closer to the Democratic Nomination, and shakeup the Republican side once against. Rand Paul will win it narrowly, beating out the longtime favorite Chris Christie. The question is now where do Christie and frankly Jeb Bush go from here?" -- Joe Scarborough

"We have two different winners from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not uncommon in GOP presidential politics, the problem is the electorate is divided over whom to support. If you look at both cases the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire got either twenty-five percent or slightly under. So there is still a play for someone to breakout with a win." -- Steve Schmidt

"I think it's fair to say that Paul Ryan's chances are over with, and Bobby Jindal is fading?" -- Joe Scarborough

"Paul Ryan needed a win in either Iowa or New Hampshire, he didn't get both, and there's no place left. He can wait it out until Super Tuesday, but he's running out of money and donors. Jindal may see a revival. Remember he wrote off New Hampshire and has poured all his resources into South Carolina. He's trying to get the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley, which if he can secure that nod he maybe able to close the deal." -- Steve Schmidt

"The problem is Christie poured his resources into New Hampshire and it got him second and if you look at Jindal's performance in Iowa the final tally is putting him at a little over ten percent, that's a failing campaign." -- Joe Scarborough

"So if Jindal does continue to tank then there is a space for either Jeb Bush to comeback and secure a win there before Florida or for even Susana Martinez." -- Joe Scarborough

"You know of all the candidates she is the one I keep hearing getting mentioned over and over again. Now I still think she's a long shot for the nomination, but I'm telling you there is a buzz about this woman." -- Joe Scarborough

RYAN BIDS ADIEU

Paul Ryan announced the suspension of his campaign at a press conference in Concord, however he did not offer an endorsement, saying he would wait until "After South Carolina at the earliest."

Post New Hampshire: National Polls (Republicans)

Bush: 21%

Christie: 21%

Martinez: 21%

Paul: 20%

Jindal: 12%

Post New Hampshire: National Polls (Democrats)

Clinton: 56%

Patrick: 24%

Schweitzer: 18%

Pre-New Hampshire South Carolina Polls: (Republicans)

Bush: 20%

Jindal: 19%

Martinez: 19%

Christie: 15%
Paul: 13%
Ryan: 11%

Post-New Hampshire South Carolina Polls: (Republicans)

Jindal: 25%

Martinez: 23%

Bush: 19%

Paul: 18%

Christie: 14%

Pre-New Hampshire South Carolina Polls: (Democrats)

Clinton: 49%

Patrick: 19%

Schweitzer: 17%

Warner: 14%

Post-New Hampshire South Carolina Polls: (Democrats)

Clinton: 48%

Patrick: 31%

Schweitzer: 20%

'SHE'S THE ONE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND AMERICA'

Gov. Nikki Haley Endorses Governor Susana Martinez for President

MARTINEZ FOCUSES ON SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND

"I believe in the promise of America and it is time to standup and fight for it! Help me South Carolina and so we can take this message to all corners of the country get America going again."

Final South Carolina Poll: (Republicans)

Jindal: 26%

Martinez: 25%

Bush: 19%

Paul: 18%

Christie: 10%
Undecided: 4%

Final South Carolina Poll: (Democrats)

Clinton: 44%

Patrick: 33%

Schweitzer: 18%
Undecided: 5%

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This is suspenseful.

[Maxwell]

I think black turnout will push Patrick over the top in South Carolina and make the race competitive!

As for South Carolina, I'm rooting for Jindal, but I'm thinking Martinez has the momentum.

[Niemeyerite]

I think SC should be an easy win for Clinton (>10%), too. On the republican side, I'm rooting for Paul (but I don't know why, maybe because he's the underdog).

[Svensson]

On the republican side, I'm rooting for Paul (but I don't know why, maybe because he's the underdog).

That, and it might just be that his politics are the slightest bit more tolerable than the average(see: war, the PATRIOT Act, the NDAA, SOPA and PIPA, etc.). Personally speaking, though, I'm pulling for Martinez on the basis of actual executive experience.

[NHI]

South Carolina: Republicans (19%)

Martinez: 26.8%

Jindal: 25.6%

Bush: 19.1%

Paul: 18.9%

Christie: 8.5%

"Now with nineteen percent of the vote counted Governor Martinez continues to hold onto her lead over Governor Bobby Jindal. There is a bit of a race for third place tonight, between Governor Bush and Senator Paul." -- Rachel Maddow

"The race everyone is watching tonight is the one between Hillary Clinton and Deval Patrick. Hillary Clinton is leading, but by a very narrow amount. The last few days have showed a growing surge for Governor Patrick, coupled by support from African-Americans there is a feeling that Patrick may, pull out a win tonight, which will certainly be a setback to the Clinton campaign and stop her third straight win." -- Chris Matthews

South Carolina: Democrats (24%)

Clinton: 41.2%

Patrick: 36.8%

Schweitzer: 20.0%

"The Clinton campaign has to be nervous tonight, especially given the last few days have showed this race tightening." -- Chris Matthews

"This is why Deval Patrick did not dropout, when everyone else did after New Hampshire, his campaign saw an opening in South Carolina. Now what may help her is that this is still a three person race and Schweitzer is taking some votes away. My bet is if Patrick wins this tonight, there will be a strong effort by the Clinton to keep him in the race." -- Joe Scarborough

"And MSNBC is now ready to project that Governor Susana Martinez is the winner of the South Carolina Primary." -- Rachel Maddow

South Carolina: Republicans (22%)

Martinez: 27.2%

Jindal: 25.1%

Bush: 19.0%
Paul: 19.0%
Christie: 8.7%

GOVERNOR MARTINEZ WINS THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY

"So as the GOP race moves to Florida and beyond what is the next phase?" --Rachel Maddow

"Martinez has the momentum and no one can deny that now. She is what the base has been looking for and what the party needs to show that this is not the party of extremists, not the party of old white men." -- Joe Scarborough

"I don't know about the extremist part Joe." -- Chris Matthews

"No, Chris. She's governor of a blue state she's been very popular and is what my party has been looking for since 2012. The Bushes are yesterdays news and in many ways so is Chris Christie." -- Joe Scarborough

"Do we see Christie and Bush dropout next?" -- Rachel Maddow

"Bush will remain until Florida, if I had to wager a guess. Christie is gone after tonight. I mean he got beat in New Hampshire after putting all his money and time in the state and is now coming in last in South Carolina. Now getting back to Jeb Bush, sure he wins Florida, but he lacks the momentum and plus Florida is his home state. The question will be how big a margin and how well Martinez does in the state." -- Joe Scarborough

"What about Rand Paul?" -- Chris Matthews

"Paul stays. He won New Hampshire and I think he'll be somewhat competitive in the caucus states forthcoming, but baring some change Martinez is on her way to the nomination, I think. Bobby Jindal needed to win this state tonight and he failed to do so, and for historical reference, barring 2012 every winner of the South Carolina primary has gone onto secure the Republican nomination." -- Joe Scarborough

"Returning to the Democratic race it is still too close to call. Hillary Clinton leads Governor Patrick, but only by an increasingly narrower margin." -- Rachel Maddow

South Carolina: Democrats (29%)

Clinton: 40.9%

Patrick: 38.7%

Schweitzer: 18.9%

[NHI]

South Carolina: Democrats (31%)

Clinton: 40.1%

Patrick: 39.0%

Schweitzer: 18.5%

"...Hillary Clinton continues to hold a narrow lead over Governor Patrick, but the race remains too close to call." -- Rachel Maddow

"I'm shocked at how close this race remains between both candidates. I mean Patrick is surging right now." -- Chris Matthews

"Here we thought she had this race locked up and Deval Patrick is proving that some Democrats don't want Hillary Clinton as the nominee, though I don't see them are a majority, probably not even a minority." -- Joe Scarborough

"Looking at our latest tabulation this race has tightened even more. Governor Patrick has crossed the forty percent hurdle, but Mrs. Clinton still leads."-- Rachel Maddow

South Carolina: Democrats (33%)

Clinton: 40.8%

Patrick: 40.0%

Schweitzer: 17.8%

"Not to draw similarities but this is reminding me of Iowa in 2012 between Santorum and Romney. I mean this is a nail biter." -- Chris Matthews

"Especially when Clinton held an eleven point lead going into South Carolina. To be leading by this amount now is quite a turn of events. Even if Clinton does still pull this out, and I think she will Patrick is going to be able to win the headlines and claim momentum as the campaign shifts into Florida. If anything this will buy him some time and perhaps drag this race out, maybe even to Hillary Clinton's dismay. Considering this race was supposed to over quick, the reversal is that the Republican side looks to be wrapping up quicker than previously thought." -- Joe Scaborough

South Carolina: Democrats (39%)

Clinton: 40.6%

Patrick: 40.5%

Schweitzer: 17.5%

"We are getting word that regardless of the results Hillary Clinton and Deval Patrick will speak around or shortly after the eleven o'clock hour tonight." -- Rachel Maddow

CLINTON ADDRESSES SUPPORTERS

Clinton Addressed her supporters at 11:12, as the results tightened even more in South Carolina. "We still have a long night and road to go."

South Carolina: Democrats (47%)

Clinton: 40.6%

Patrick: 40.6%

Schweitzer: 17.4%

PATRICK SIGNALS VICTORY, DESPITE TIED RACE

"Despite all in the media and the pundits who said this race was locked up, tonight South Carolina you've proven them all wrong."

South Carolina: Democrats (55%)

Clinton: 40.7%

Patrick: 40.7%

Schweitzer: 17.2%

"You've heard both candidates. Governor Patrick sounded victorious, while Hillary Clinton acted liked she had been standing on a carpet and someone pulled it out from under her. I mean even in 2008 I never saw her give a speech like that. She was so down and she looked like she'd been through the ringer." -- Joe Scarborough

South Carolina: Democrats (61%)

Clinton: 40.9%

Patrick: 40.8%

Schweitzer: 16.9%

"Now with sixty one percent counted Hillary Clinton continues to hold onto her narrow lead in the South Carolina Primary, but we still are unable to project a winner in this hotly contested race." -- Rachel Maddow

"Governor Patrick sounded like a winner tonight, Hillary Clinton not so much. Even if she wins this, he's changed the race at least for the short term." -- Chris Matthews

"Well that's going to be the next phase Chris. What will the Clinton strategy be. I think no matter what happens whether they win or lose, tomorrow Hillary Clinton comes out and starts swinging. She's remained above the fray and that has certainly helped keep her popularity intact, but I suspect that come tomorrow they will to put it bluntly burry Deval Patrick so a night like this never happens again." -- Joe Scarborough

South Carolina: Democrats (82%)

Clinton: 40.9%

Patrick: 40.9%

Schweitzer: 16.7%

PATRICK PROJECTED TO WIN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY (2:36 AM)

South Carolina: Democrats (97%)

Patrick: 40.9%

Clinton: 40.9%

Schweitzer: 16.7%

PATRICKS TRUMPS CLINTON IN SOUTH CAROLINA

Gov. Deval Patrick eked out a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina Primary, bringing to a halt what would have been her third consecutive primary win. The race now shifts to Florida where polls before the primary showed Clinton with a sizable lead.

South Carolina: Final Results (100%)

Republicans:

Martinez: 27.6%

Jindal: 24.9%

Paul: 19.3%

Bush: 18.7%

Christie: 8.2%

Democrats:

Patrick: 40.91%

Clinton: 40.90%

Schweitzer: 16.89%

Pre-South Carolina Florida Polls: (Republicans)

Bush: 40%

Martinez: 19%

Jindal: 14%

Christie: 12%

Paul: 12%

Pre-South Carolina Florida Polls: (Democrats)

Clinton: 52%

Patrick: 22%

Schweitzer: 20%

[Niemeyerite]

Poor Patrick, he has the momentum, but Florida will kill it.

[Lief 🗽]

You have a real knack for capturing the voices of MSNBC talking heads, it's very fun to read.