Canada 2001: Chretien retires voluntarily

[RogueBeaver]

Let's say Martin's people are slightly less boneheaded and don't stage that airport demonstration which lifted Aline Chretien's third-term veto. Chretien peacefully hands over to Martin later that year or in early 2001. How does Martin's premiership turn out? Obviously the sponsorship time bomb will keep on ticking, especially if Sheila Fraser is still appointed AG in February 2001.

[DC Al Fine]

Let's say Martin's people are slightly less boneheaded and don't stage that airport demonstration which lifted Aline Chretien's third-term veto. Chretien peacefully hands over to Martin later that year or in early 2001. How does Martin's premiership turn out? Obviously the sponsorship time bomb will keep on ticking, especially if Sheila Fraser is still appointed AG in February 2001.

It really depends if the right gets it's act together. If they don't Martin wins a 1997 style majority in spite of sponsorship.

[RogueBeaver]

He'll still be facing Day, which probably means a bigger Liberal majority similar to Chretien's 172-seat RL one. With a Blue Liberal like Martin as PM the need to merge becomes even more apparent IMO.