Would RFK have run in 1968 if JFK survived and was re-elected in 1964?

[Goldeneye]

Would Robert Kennedy still have run for president in 1968 if his brother John F. Kennedy survived in 1963 and was re-elected in 1964?

[Cold War Liberal]

Almost certainly not.

JFK would have beaten Goldwater in '64. I have never heard or read anyone except Goldwater himself express any opinion to the contrary, though I guess we can never really be sure. It probably would have been a landslide, though not as big as LBJ's. So that's not the issue.

RFK probably would have stayed on as attorney general through the second JFK term rather than running for Senate in '64, and I can't imagine the US would elect back-to-back Kennedy presidencies, especially since RFK's IRL '68 campaign was partially fueled by people nostalgic for his brother's administration and angry at it being cut short by Lee Harvey Oswald. Also, LBJ wanted to be President. Badly. Like, really badly. And he hated RFK. Whether or not LBJ would win the nomination and the general depends on a lot of things (especially Vietnam and Kennedy's approvals, and whether or not Kennedy's approvals affect LBJ's approvals), but I can't imagine he'd let RFK steal the nomination away from him. Plus RFK would also be tied to the JFK administration, so if there's something dragging LBJ down from JFK's presidency, it's hard to imagine it not also dragging RFK down too.

Maybe RFK runs for the Senate at a later date, or the governorship of NY or MA, or some other position, then runs for President in '72 or '76 (depending on who wins in '68), or maybe not. He was so young in '68 that I can't imagine him retiring politically at that time, even if he was Attorney General Kennedy rather than Senator Kennedy.

[brucejoel99]

I don't know if RFK would actually succeed (or even try to succeed) a living JFK in the Presidency. After all, the assassination & LBJ's administration are what gave RFK the drive to run in '68. He wouldn't seem likely to have that same drive if JFK lived, though who knows re: a later point (maybe '72 or '76).

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, and it would have gone over about as well as Jeb Bush running in 2008, or Hillary Clinton running in 2000.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Almost certainly not.

JFK would have beaten Goldwater in '64. I have never heard or read anyone except Goldwater himself express any opinion to the contrary, though I guess we can never really be sure. It probably would have been a landslide, though not as big as LBJ's. So that's not the issue.

RFK probably would have stayed on as attorney general through the second JFK term rather than running for Senate in '64, and I can't imagine the US would elect back-to-back Kennedy presidencies, especially since RFK's IRL '68 campaign was partially fueled by people nostalgic for his brother's administration and angry at it being cut short by Lee Harvey Oswald. Also, LBJ wanted to be President. Badly. Like, really badly. And he hated RFK. Whether or not LBJ would win the nomination and the general depends on a lot of things (especially Vietnam and Kennedy's approvals, and whether or not Kennedy's approvals affect LBJ's approvals), but I can't imagine he'd let RFK steal the nomination away from him. Plus RFK would also be tied to the JFK administration, so if there's something dragging LBJ down from JFK's presidency, it's hard to imagine it not also dragging RFK down too.

Maybe RFK runs for the Senate at a later date, or the governorship of NY or MA, or some other position, then runs for President in '72 or '76 (depending on who wins in '68), or maybe not. He was so young in '68 that I can't imagine him retiring politically at that time, even if he was Attorney General Kennedy rather than Senator Kennedy.

It's important to keep in mind that Goldwater and JFK were basically friends. Goldwater said that he would not have ran in the first place if Kennedy was still POTUS. So this makes any "JFK vs. Goldwater" scenario moot.

[Cold War Liberal]

Almost certainly not.

JFK would have beaten Goldwater in '64. I have never heard or read anyone except Goldwater himself express any opinion to the contrary, though I guess we can never really be sure. It probably would have been a landslide, though not as big as LBJ's. So that's not the issue.

RFK probably would have stayed on as attorney general through the second JFK term rather than running for Senate in '64, and I can't imagine the US would elect back-to-back Kennedy presidencies, especially since RFK's IRL '68 campaign was partially fueled by people nostalgic for his brother's administration and angry at it being cut short by Lee Harvey Oswald. Also, LBJ wanted to be President. Badly. Like, really badly. And he hated RFK. Whether or not LBJ would win the nomination and the general depends on a lot of things (especially Vietnam and Kennedy's approvals, and whether or not Kennedy's approvals affect LBJ's approvals), but I can't imagine he'd let RFK steal the nomination away from him. Plus RFK would also be tied to the JFK administration, so if there's something dragging LBJ down from JFK's presidency, it's hard to imagine it not also dragging RFK down too.

Maybe RFK runs for the Senate at a later date, or the governorship of NY or MA, or some other position, then runs for President in '72 or '76 (depending on who wins in '68), or maybe not. He was so young in '68 that I can't imagine him retiring politically at that time, even if he was Attorney General Kennedy rather than Senator Kennedy.

It's important to keep in mind that Goldwater and JFK were basically friends. Goldwater said that he would not have ran in the first place if Kennedy was still POTUS. So this makes any "JFK vs. Goldwater" scenario moot.

Ah, no. He most certainly planned on running, and was, with Rocky, one of the lead contenders for the nomination well before the Kennedy assassination.

Goldwater and Kennedy were friends, yes. Apparently Goldwater did not want to attack JFK's character, instead planning on running an issues-based campaign. Whether he would have kept to this is anyone's guess, especially if Kennedy went full LBJ and labelled him a mentally unstable trigger-happy racist.

Here's an article from the Free Lance Star's October 30, 1963 (23 days before the assassination) proving that he planned on running.

"Goldwater for President" was over half a decade in the making by the time the '64 election rolled around. Clarence Manion tried to draft him in the '60 primaries, and Goldwater didn't really resist. He wasn't going to just stay out of the race because he was friends with JFK, especially since he had a serious shot at the nomination.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, I think so. I even heard that JFK would be have been his Secretary of State. But I don't know whether that would have been the case. Johnson would have run, but not been nominated. Just like Humphrey.

[Kingpoleon]

Nope. ATL Defense Secretary Shivers, VP Johnson, Governor Brown, and Senator McCarthy run for the nomination, and eventually Robert F. Kennedy gets the other three to agree to a Brown/Shivers ticket, provided McCarthy or McGovern becomes Secretary of the Treasury, Kennedy stays on at Justice, and a few other concessions.

However, the Republicans have Barry Goldwater, Nelson Rockefeller, Mark Hatfield, and Norris Cotton run. With neither side having a clear majority, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. becomes the compromise nominee, and he nominates Barry Goldwater as his running mate. Rockefeller is promised Secretary of State.

From there, I suspect Lodge wins. Governor Brown can’t crack into the Midwest and Northeast enough.

[Cold War Liberal]

Nope. ATL Defense Secretary Shivers, VP Johnson, Governor Brown, and Senator McCarthy run for the nomination, and eventually Robert F. Kennedy gets the other three to agree to a Brown/Shivers ticket, provided McCarthy or McGovern becomes Secretary of the Treasury, Kennedy stays on at Justice, and a few other concessions.

However, the Republicans have Barry Goldwater, Nelson Rockefeller, Mark Hatfield, and Norris Cotton run. With neither side having a clear majority, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. becomes the compromise nominee, and he nominates Barry Goldwater as his running mate. Rockefeller is promised Secretary of State.

From there, I suspect Lodge wins. Governor Brown can’t crack into the Midwest and Northeast enough.

Interesting thought experiment. Only quibble is that McCarthy only really ran in '68 as an anti-Vietnam, ant-LBJ candidate. I don't think he actually wanted to be President (he promised to only serve one term if nominated and elected, IIRC), so I don't see him running in '68 if LBJ is not the incumbent President & Vietnam is not a quagmire.

[dw93]

Yes, and it would have gone over about as well as Jeb Bush running in 2008, or Hillary Clinton running in 2000.

This. If JFK lives, Bobby doesn't run in 68 and may not even run for the Senate in 1964. Johnson probably gets the nomination in 68 and runs against Rockefeller, Romney, or Nixon. The General itself would be a close one. I don't think Kennedy would have the amount legislative accomplishments that LBJ had (a Civil Rights Act would pass and be signed sometime between 1965 and 1969 though), so everything else that happened in Johnson's full term OTL (Vietnam, etc...) would have to go differently for the better. If they don't, a Republican wins, if they do, Johnson wins.

[HisGrace]

A huge part of RFK's presidential ambitions were in reaction to Johnson, right? So he doesn't necessarily even want to be president if the assassination doesn't happen.

Add to that that JFK's legacy is much different and he isn't nearly as popular if the assassination doesn't happen, given that he might not have replicated LBJ's accomplishments on Civil Rights and he likely escalates in Vietnam the same way.

[ViaActiva]

I find it hard to see RFK as an effective politician without his brother's death - it gave him enormous sympathy and people projected their support of JFK onto him. He was a shy and awkward man who almost lost the New York Senate race in 1964 even after the assassination. Without JFK's death he'd still be known as his brother's ruthless (and quite conservative) companion.

[johnpressman]

Reading "Playing With Fire" by Lawrence O'Donnell.  Aside from his left wing sensibilities, this is the best book I have read about the 1968 election.

Barry Goldwater did not want to be President.  He wanted to spread the conservative agenda throughout America.  He and JFK seriously considered sharing one campaign plane and each making their case to the assembled crowd.  They would flip a coin to determine who would speak first!

It is hard to find a set of circumstances that would result in an RFK run for the Presidency had his brother lived and served another term.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He wouldn't have ran at all.

[bagelman]

No, but he might have ran later on. Scenario: GOP wins in '68, RFK runs in '72 if GOP unpopular enough or in '76.

[dw93]

No, but he might have ran later on. Scenario: GOP wins in '68, RFK runs in '72 if GOP unpopular enough or in '76.

If Bobby were to still enter Politics in the event that Jack lives, this is probably the most likely of scenarios.

[Cold War Liberal]

Reading "Playing With Fire" by Lawrence O'Donnell.  Aside from his left wing sensibilities, this is the best book I have read about the 1968 election.

Yes. This book was incredibly good.

This is my opinion:

No, but he might have ran later on. Scenario: GOP wins in '68, RFK runs in '72 if GOP unpopular enough or in '76.

If Bobby were to still enter Politics in the event that Jack lives, this is probably the most likely of scenarios.