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Author Topic: Next Greek Parliamentary Election Predictions  (Read 5009 times)
osideguy92
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« on: November 27, 2012, 02:53:26 am »
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With the New Democracy-PASOK-Democratic Left coalition at 167 seats, down from 179 following the June elections (ND-PASOK with only 151 seats on their own), there is a growing possibility that Greece will be undergoing a brand new round of elections very shortly. Give me your predictions as to who will be top dog in the 300-member body!

Remember: Top vote-getting party receives a 50-seat bonus and any party receiving less than 3% of the vote cannot be awarded seats in Parliament.

My prediction:

SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left): 27% (134 seats)
ND (New Democracy): 20% (63 seats)
XA (Golden Dawn): 15% (42 seats)
ANEL (Independent Greeks): 8% (24 seats)
KKE (Communist Party): 7.5% (22 seats)
PASOK (Socialist Party): 5% (15 seats)
DIMAR (Democratic Left): 2.5% (0 seats-DNQ)


Ultimate Prediction: After making a number of significant concessions, Alexis Tsipras and SYRIZA come to an agreement with Aleka Papariga the Communists to form an anti-bailout left-wing government, after about a week of negotiations and uncertainty (ultimately, Papariga iss swayed by polling information showing Golden Dawn in the 18-22% range should another election end up being held). After receiving wind of the agreement, Nikolaos Michaloliakos of Golden Dawn decides to utilize the resources available to him at the behest of the police forces to engineer a shocking and decisive coup d'etat.

As news of the coup spreads almost instantaneously, global markets descend into panic, prompting several exchanges including the NYSE to indefinitely suspend trading. NATO convenes an emergency session at which they conditionally expel Greece. The EU follows soon afterward, expelling Greece from the body as well as the political and financial Eurozone. Given Michaloliakos' chilling statements regarding his desire to "take back Istanbul," war with Turkey would appear inevitable. And, given Turkey's status as a NATO member, a new World War could be in the making.

Now that you have my take, what do you guys think would happen?
« Last Edit: November 27, 2012, 03:07:15 am by osideguy92 »Logged
Armand Duval
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2012, 03:03:24 am »
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You forgot about the alien invasion that would ensue, but other than that just like you.
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2012, 09:17:00 am »
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After initial set-backs the Greeks could easily take back Constantinople by Christmas 2013. This would, of course, wake Konstantinos XII Palaiologos from his 600-year-long sleep under the Galata Gate and the 'Golden Emperor' could be crowned King of all the Greeks and Emperor of Byzantium by Michaliolakis (by now Patriarch of Constantinople) in a special ceremony in the Hagia Sophia on Christmas Day.

The new Pan-Hellenic state afterwards would be swift to turn its attention to the Heresiarch and his court in Rome. By April/June 2014 i think we could see most of the Church re-united into one, holy, undivisible, apostolic, Catholic, and very orthodox Church. Give it another 3/4 months to bring back (or exterminate) the more exotic of heresies*, and I think that by autumn 2014 we could be on track for the 1000-year empire.

This means that the Youngest Day/Last Judgement will take place anywhere between the 22nd of September 3014 and the 28th of november of 3014. Mind you, all of this is just conjecture, It's easily possible that ND could just win the next Greek parliamentary election. Let's hope not!

*: By then, of course, the Anglican Synod will be besides itself with relief that they didn't go with the whole female bishops thing. That would have mightily complicated things for them.
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2012, 11:11:37 am »
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More like, a combined US-German-British-Turkish invasion of Greece commences. Within a week most of Greece is occupied. The allies announce permanent annexation of Western Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly and Epirus by Turkey (with some border adjustments in favor of Bulgaria, Albania and - Slav - Macedonia), as well as the islands of Lemnos, Lesbos, Samos, Chios and Samothrace. Germany gets most of the remaining islands in the Aegean (including the Dodcanese), Britain takes Crete and the Ionian islands. Athens Pashalik is established under the protectorate of the allied powers to govern the remaining parts of the mainland (with the UN Mandate). An independent Communist government (internationally unrecognized, except by Venezuela) is formed on Icaria.

BTW, let's move it to alternative history, eh?
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2012, 12:00:52 pm »
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After initial set-backs the Greeks could easily take back Constantinople by Christmas 2013. This would, of course, wake Konstantinos XII Palaiologos from his 600-year-long sleep under the Galata Gate and the 'Golden Emperor' could be crowned King of all the Greeks and Emperor of Byzantium by Michaliolakis (by now Patriarch of Constantinople) in a special ceremony in the Hagia Sophia on Christmas Day.

Don't forget Trebizond. I want a reinstatement of the Great Komnenoi at the Imperial throne of All the East, Iberia and Perateia, including luxurious ceremony of coronation at Soumela's monastery. Did someone speak about Alternative History? This will be a reality in two years, at most.
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2012, 01:02:44 pm »
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BTW, let's move it to alternative history, eh?

An excellent idea.
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2012, 12:02:30 am »
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What are Konstantinos XIII's thoughts on the Golden Dawn and vice versa? Andreas Palaiologos, Konstantinos XII's successor, sold his rights to the Byzantine crown to Charles VIII of France, which means that Louis Alphonse* should also have a strong claim to the restored Byzantine throne.

*please don't pollute this thread with any Orleanist nonsense, thanks
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osideguy92
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2012, 03:17:03 am »
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Can you guys please stay on topic?
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2012, 07:55:23 pm »
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BTW, let's move it to alternative history, eh?

An excellent idea.

No it's not.
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2012, 08:31:58 pm »
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This thread should be deleted and someone should start a new thread on this topic.
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2012, 11:26:13 am »
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A funny thing is whether we would want to work with a Theofascist Turkey or a Theofascist Greece?
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2012, 02:21:01 am »
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Honestly this should probably go in International Election What-ifs... Sad

And the subject of the next Greek elections is interesting even if the OP is basically just a wacky timeline that won't happen. Considering the fact that PASOK and DIMAR are basically just supporting an ND government, when PASOK decides to pull the plug on the coalition it'll probably be at a time when they're polling as best as possible- which in turn would probably mean they're taking votes away from SYRIZA and thus that ND would win the mandate again. No idea what happens after that but you've gotta imagine it'd just lead to a second election.
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2012, 03:06:12 am »
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So I got curious and ran the numbers on recent the recent polls I could find from Greece. Had no idea PASOK was polling so horribly or Golden Dawn doing so well; I haven't been following Greece lately at all. If an election was held today, this would be the number of seats per party in the Greek Parliament:

SYRIZA: 126 - 139
ND: 63 - 71
XA: 32 - 40
ANEL: 17 - 21
KKE: 16 - 21
PASOK: 14 - 20
DIMAR: 9 - 16

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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2012, 10:20:54 pm »
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Happy to see SYRIZA leading. Sad to see XA in 3rd.

With these numbers, a SYRIZA-KKE-DIMAR government should be have a majority. Majority is 151 IIRC. Hopefully KKE stop being a--holes and join a government for once. That would be the only possible combination, unless you get some weird SYRIZA-ANEL-DIMAR thing or unless PASOK decides to actually be leftist again (big chance of that happening :p).

How much is SYRIZA ahead of ND percentage wise? The seat numbers don't really give an accurate picture because of the stupid 50 seat bonus.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2012, 11:16:03 pm »
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PASOK would enter a coalition looong before KKE does. Or ANEL for that matter. Especially if it's only a rump-PASOK left that's desperate to stay relevant. Of course, some polls' results have a majority for Syriza + DIMAR alone, but who knows what'll happen by the time the eventual elections occur.

IIRC, Syriza is ahead of ND by 3 to 9 points, depending on the poll. Keep in mind Greek pollsters try to predict how undecideds will break in their top line numbers, so most methodology differences between pollsters will be in those assumptions.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2012, 09:30:03 pm »
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Oh wow, I hadn't been paying attention but the coalition has been looking rather dire over the past month. Here's the current seat totals after ND and PASOK kicked members out because they voted against the austerity bill and budget last month:

ND: 125
PASOK: 25
DIMAR: 16 (three of whom voted against their party on the budget last month)

Syriza: 71
ANEL: 20
XA: 18
KKE: 12
independents: 13 (1 former DIMAR, 4 former ND, 8 former PASOK)

Damn... at this rate, one or two more tough votes like that and the coalition is done for. And the government would fall immediately if either junior partner decides the ND is offering something they can't swallow.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 09:32:30 pm by Bacon King »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2012, 04:35:23 am »
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Oh wow, I hadn't been paying attention but the coalition has been looking rather dire over the past month. Here's the current seat totals after ND and PASOK kicked members out because they voted against the austerity bill and budget last month:

ND: 125
PASOK: 25
DIMAR: 16 (three of whom voted against their party on the budget last month)

Syriza: 71
ANEL: 20
XA: 18
KKE: 12
independents: 13 (1 former DIMAR, 4 former ND, 8 former PASOK)

Damn... at this rate, one or two more tough votes like that and the coalition is done for. And the government would fall immediately if either junior partner decides the ND is offering something they can't swallow.
What happens in the event of a tie?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2012, 08:24:56 am »
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What happens in the event of a tie?

The Greek Constitution requires that if a vote is tied, then a second vote is held on the same thing, and if the second vote is also a tie, then it fails. Also, motions of confidence explicitly require an absolute majority: 150 votes or less and the government falls, even if some MP's vote Present.
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2012, 12:20:32 pm »
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Out of all the other parties, I think ANEL would be most likely to support a SYRIZA government.
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2012, 12:28:30 pm »
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Out of all the other parties, I think ANEL would be most likely to support a SYRIZA government.
Nah, clearly DIMAR (and the left wing of Pasok for that matter).
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« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2012, 03:23:18 pm »
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Why is that clear?
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politicus
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« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2012, 03:41:20 pm »
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They wouldn't like to, but they are ideologically close to SYRIZA as a Socialist party and would not have much of a choice, if there was a pure left wing majority. If they blocked a SYRIZA government they would be destroyed in the next election.
ANEL on the other hand is a right wing protest party, that would never join or support any government, especially not one with a Socialist party as the leading force.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2012, 04:30:24 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2012, 08:07:40 pm »
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They wouldn't like to, but they are ideologically close to SYRIZA as a Socialist party and would not have much of a choice, if there was a pure left wing majority. If they blocked a SYRIZA government they would be destroyed in the next election.
ANEL on the other hand is a right wing protest party, that would never join or support any government, especially not one with a Socialist party as the leading force.

This is definitely wrong on ANEL (and on DIMAR, to some extent). At the last election, ANEL and DIMAR all but campaigned on a coalition with SYRIZA. Neither would be unhappy about working with SYRIZA, though of course ANEL would rather their anti-austerity coalition partner were on the right (and probably prefers XA to SYRIZA as an ally). DIMAR would rather lead the coalition, but they wouldn't object to joining up with SYRIZA. (I'm somewhat surprised that they're even surviving--they were initially the anti-austerity center-left splinter, so joining a pro-austerity coalition should have killed them.)
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politicus
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« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2012, 08:38:22 pm »
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They wouldn't like to, but they are ideologically close to SYRIZA as a Socialist party and would not have much of a choice, if there was a pure left wing majority. If they blocked a SYRIZA government they would be destroyed in the next election.
ANEL on the other hand is a right wing protest party, that would never join or support any government, especially not one with a Socialist party as the leading force.

This is definitely wrong on ANEL (and on DIMAR, to some extent). At the last election, ANEL and DIMAR all but campaigned on a coalition with SYRIZA. Neither would be unhappy about working with SYRIZA, though of course ANEL would rather their anti-austerity coalition partner were on the right (and probably prefers XA to SYRIZA as an ally). DIMAR would rather lead the coalition, but they wouldn't object to joining up with SYRIZA. (I'm somewhat surprised that they're even surviving--they were initially the anti-austerity center-left splinter, so joining a pro-austerity coalition should have killed them.)
What a party campaigns on and what they really want are two different things.  
A coalition with SYRIZA with their radical socialist platform would be a nightmare for ANEL and end in a meltdown for the party. I doubt very much that the ANEL leadership really wants to form a government. It is basically a populist party which has no real solutions to anything and this would be revealed if they ever came to power. But this is of course my interpretation, not something I can prove.
I just think you are making the mistake of treating ANEL as a serious party and not as a career vehicle for its leadership.

Regarding DIMAR I think we basically agree.

A. They are interested in a left wing government, but don't really want to be the junior partner in a SYRIZA led government (because they want to be the dominant left wing party and don't really trust SYRIZAS leadership).

B: If its necessary for them to let SYRIZA lead the government (which it will be) in order not to block the possibility of a left wing government, they will reluctantly do so.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2012, 09:07:09 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2012, 08:59:06 pm »
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I'm surprised by the way that DIMAR is holding up too, but who knows who their voters are right now. Remember there was a massive swing among Muslims in East Thrace from DISY in the first round to DIMAR in the second round. Maybe DIMAR is getting the "centrist" vote, meaning not necessarily pro- or anti- austerity?  \_(ツ)_/
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