osideguy92
Rookie
Posts: 57
Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.43
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« on: November 27, 2012, 02:53:26 AM » |
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« edited: November 27, 2012, 03:07:15 AM by osideguy92 »
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With the New Democracy-PASOK-Democratic Left coalition at 167 seats, down from 179 following the June elections (ND-PASOK with only 151 seats on their own), there is a growing possibility that Greece will be undergoing a brand new round of elections very shortly. Give me your predictions as to who will be top dog in the 300-member body!
Remember: Top vote-getting party receives a 50-seat bonus and any party receiving less than 3% of the vote cannot be awarded seats in Parliament.
My prediction:
SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left): 27% (134 seats)
ND (New Democracy): 20% (63 seats)
XA (Golden Dawn): 15% (42 seats)
ANEL (Independent Greeks): 8% (24 seats)
KKE (Communist Party): 7.5% (22 seats)
PASOK (Socialist Party): 5% (15 seats)
DIMAR (Democratic Left): 2.5% (0 seats-DNQ)
Ultimate Prediction: After making a number of significant concessions, Alexis Tsipras and SYRIZA come to an agreement with Aleka Papariga the Communists to form an anti-bailout left-wing government, after about a week of negotiations and uncertainty (ultimately, Papariga iss swayed by polling information showing Golden Dawn in the 18-22% range should another election end up being held). After receiving wind of the agreement, Nikolaos Michaloliakos of Golden Dawn decides to utilize the resources available to him at the behest of the police forces to engineer a shocking and decisive coup d'etat.
As news of the coup spreads almost instantaneously, global markets descend into panic, prompting several exchanges including the NYSE to indefinitely suspend trading. NATO convenes an emergency session at which they conditionally expel Greece. The EU follows soon afterward, expelling Greece from the body as well as the political and financial Eurozone. Given Michaloliakos' chilling statements regarding his desire to "take back Istanbul," war with Turkey would appear inevitable. And, given Turkey's status as a NATO member, a new World War could be in the making.
Now that you have my take, what do you guys think would happen?
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