Next Greek Parliamentary Election Predictions

[Bacon King]

Honestly this should probably go in International Election What-ifs...

And the subject of the next Greek elections is interesting even if the OP is basically just a wacky timeline that won't happen. Considering the fact that PASOK and DIMAR are basically just supporting an ND government, when PASOK decides to pull the plug on the coalition it'll probably be at a time when they're polling as best as possible- which in turn would probably mean they're taking votes away from SYRIZA and thus that ND would win the mandate again. No idea what happens after that but you've gotta imagine it'd just lead to a second election.

[Bacon King]

So I got curious and ran the numbers on recent the recent polls I could find from Greece. Had no idea PASOK was polling so horribly or Golden Dawn doing so well; I haven't been following Greece lately at all. If an election was held today, this would be the number of seats per party in the Greek Parliament:

SYRIZA: 126 - 139
ND: 63 - 71
XA: 32 - 40
ANEL: 17 - 21
KKE: 16 - 21
PASOK: 14 - 20
DIMAR: 9 - 16

[Bacon King]

PASOK would enter a coalition looong before KKE does. Or ANEL for that matter. Especially if it's only a rump-PASOK left that's desperate to stay relevant. Of course, some polls' results have a majority for Syriza + DIMAR alone, but who knows what'll happen by the time the eventual elections occur.

IIRC, Syriza is ahead of ND by 3 to 9 points, depending on the poll. Keep in mind Greek pollsters try to predict how undecideds will break in their top line numbers, so most methodology differences between pollsters will be in those assumptions.

[Bacon King]

Oh wow, I hadn't been paying attention but the coalition has been looking rather dire over the past month. Here's the current seat totals after ND and PASOK kicked members out because they voted against the austerity bill and budget last month:

ND: 125
PASOK: 25
DIMAR: 16 (three of whom voted against their party on the budget last month)

Syriza: 71
ANEL: 20
XA: 18
KKE: 12
independents: 13 (1 former DIMAR, 4 former ND, 8 former PASOK)

Damn... at this rate, one or two more tough votes like that and the coalition is done for. And the government would fall immediately if either junior partner decides the ND is offering something they can't swallow.

[Bacon King]

What happens in the event of a tie?

The Greek Constitution requires that if a vote is tied, then a second vote is held on the same thing, and if the second vote is also a tie, then it fails. Also, motions of confidence explicitly require an absolute majority: 150 votes or less and the government falls, even if some MP's vote Present.

[Bacon King]

ANEL and SYRIZA have been cooperating very well in trolling the coalition (for example, suddenly calling for a vote on the constitutionality of the austerity bill while most ND MPs weren't in the building) but I doubt they would enter government together. They agree on almost literally nothing besides their shared opposition to austerity, so any potential coalition would have a very limited consensus on governance and be very fractured at best. However, the idea that even ANEL would possibly want to have a coalition with XA is a bit ridiculous.

Also, I think most of DIMAR's supporters are those who are ostensibly pro-austerity, in that they view it as an unfortunate necessity, but they can't stand to vote for either ND or PASOK due to those party's records and history of corruption.

Also guys I made a Greece thread in the Intl Discussion board