Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

So, I decided to create a new thread about the upcoming election year here in Austria, which will be a big one:

January 20, 2013



We start the year with an Army Draft Referendum, in which every Austrian citizen aged 16+ can vote if the mandatory draft and civil service should be upheld or abolished. The ÖVP and the FPÖ favor keeping the draft, while the SPÖ, Greens, BZÖ and the Team Stronach want it abolished and replaced with a professional voluntary army. This will only be the 3rd referendum in Austria so far, after the 1970s referendum on the use of nuclear energy (which was narrowly rejected) and the EU Accession referendum in the 90s (which was approved by a wide margin).

Current polls show that Austrians are leaning towards keeping the draft (even though the supporting parties ÖVP and FPÖ currently only have about 45% support in the opinion polls, while SPÖ+Greens+BZÖ+Team Stronach have about 53% support).

More here in the locked thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129396.msg3534483#msg3534483

...

Then in March there could be the snap Carinthia state election.



Regularly scheduled for 2014 this could be called earlier, because of the corruption scandals in the state, involving the FPK (Freedom Party of Carinthia), the ÖVP, the BZÖ and even the SPÖ. Only the Greens are "clean". It looks like the "Team Stronach" might also take part in this election, as well as the Pirate Party.

The state FPK has said that it favors early March 2013 elections, but this could be a bluff and when push comes to shove they could easily wait until the regular 2014 date to set the election date. State law (2/3 requirement) makes it impossible for parties other than the FPK to set the final election date. So, this is not a sure 2013 election yet. We'll see ...

...

In April, the Lower Austrian and the Tyrolian state elections will take place regularly. The last elections were held in 2008 and the results were:

Lower Austria



54.4% ÖVP
25.5% SPÖ
10.5% FPÖ
  6.9% Greens
  0.9% KPÖ
  0.8% CPÖ
  0.7% BZÖ
  0.3% Others

http://www.noe.gv.at/Politik-Verwaltung/Wahlen/Landtagswahl-2008.wai.html

Tyrol



40.5% ÖVP
18.4% FRITZ (local list by a former ÖVP member)
15.5% SPÖ
12.4% FPÖ
10.7% Greens
  1.4% CPÖ
  1.2% KPÖ

http://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/WahlenTirolGvAtWeb/wahlenGesErg.do?cmd=wahlInfoGesLand&wahl_id=20&cid=1

...

There are no new election polls for Lower Austria, but the ÖVP is widely expected to remain far ahead, but they could drop from their good result in 2008, especially because the "Team Stronach" is expected to contest the election and maybe also the Pirates.

In Tyrol, the Team Stronach and the Pirates will also contest the election, as well as 2 local lists (Gurgiser + Pfurtscheller) who currently poll about 2% each. Team Stronach is polling at about 7% right now, the Pirates at about 3%. But the ÖVP is expected to win easily again, because the SPÖ is extremely weak in Tyrol. The Greens on the other hand are quite strong there, because Innsbruck the capital is a Green-loving student city.

...

And on September 29, 2013 the regular Austrian Parliamentary Election will take place.



The results from 2008 were:

29.3% SPÖ
26.0% ÖVP
17.5% FPÖ
10.7% BZÖ
10.4% Greens
  2.1% LIF
  1.8% FRITZ
  0.8% KPÖ
  0.7% RETTÖ
  0.6% CPÖ

Turnout: 78.8%

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at

Currently, the polls show:

25-29% SPÖ
23-27% ÖVP
17-21% FPÖ
12-16% Greens
  6-11% Team Stronach
    1-4% BZÖ
    0-3% NEOS/LIF
    0-2% Pirates
    0-1% KPÖ
    0-1% Others

The threshold for parliamentary seats is 4%.

Here is the old locked thread with further information:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=107855.msg3536159#msg3536159

[Tender Branson]

Short description of the main parties running next year:

SPÖ (Social Democratic Party): Center-Left

ÖVP (People's Party): Conservative, pro-business, Center-Right

FPÖ (Freedom Party): Conservative, Nationalist, Far-Right

Greens: Eco-Left

BZÖ: Conservative, Nationalist, Far-Right, Liberal

Team Stronach: Centrist, pro-business, neo-liberal

Pirates: Centrist, web/data privacy-issues-oriented

KPÖ: far-left, Communist

CPÖ: Christian Party, against abortion and homo-favorable family forms, conservative, nationalist, Far-Right

NEOS: centrist, pro-business, neo-liberal, socially progressive

[Tender Branson]

If you have any questions about the upcoming elections, just ask them ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of where state elections will be held next year:

[DC Al Fine]

I have a few questions to get my bearings in Austrian politics.

1) What happened to Citizens Forum & Liberal Forum? Are they still viable?

2) Is there any practical difference between BZO & FPO?

3) Why does Team Stronach exist? Is he as annoying as his Canadian daughter as a politician?

4) Do KPO, Pirates or Christians have a hope of entering federal or any of the state parliaments?

5) Where do the major parties stand on social issues (abortion & SSM in particular)?

[Tender Branson]

I have a few questions to get my bearings in Austrian politics.

1) What happened to Citizens Forum & Liberal Forum? Are they still viable?

No, they are not viable anymore. Dinkhauser's Citizen Forum was a "one-hit-wonder" first in the 2008 Tyrol state election where he got 18% and then he decided to try Austria-wide as well in the 2008 parliamentary election and got about 2% (with most of the support in Tyrol).

In 2013, Dinkhauser will run again in the Tyrol state elections (where he's polling 7% now), but has said that he will not run anymore in the federal election in Oct. His star is sinking, probably has no money anymore too.

The LIF has money problems as well and with the exit of the leader figure Heide Schmidt, also lacks visibility. A lot of it's members joined the new neo-liberal NEOS party, which I described in the old thread. Even though LIF has said they are likely to run in 2013, I doubt they get more than 0.5% this time around (heck, they could even fail to gather enough signatures). Maybe NEOS gets enough signatures to be the successor of the LIF.

2) Is there any practical difference between BZO & FPO?

For the most part they have the same right-wing mindset, but on some issues they have different opinions: The FPÖ favors the draft, while the BZÖ wants to abolish it and implement a professional army. The FPÖ also wants to detain children who are asylum seekers and put them in prison to deport them, while the BZÖ says children must not be detained and put into prison. The FPÖ is against gay marriage and civil unions, the BZÖ is for civil unions. The FPÖ is against e-voting, the BZÖ for it. The FPÖ is against the privatisation of the healthcare system, the BZÖ is for it. The FPÖ favors a healthcare system only for Non-EU-foreigners, the BZÖ not. The FPÖ is against tuition fees, the BZÖ for. The BZÖ wants to invest more money into education and research, the FPÖ not. The FPÖ wants seperate classes for foreigner kids with low German skills, the BZÖ not. In general it can be said that the FPÖ is more nationalist with socialist tendencies for the native Austrian population, while in the BZÖ the word "socialist" could be changed with "(neo)liberal".

3) Why does Team Stronach exist? Is he as annoying as his Canadian daughter as a politician?

Because he has a lot of money. And yes, he's pretty annoying.

4) Do KPO, Pirates or Christians have a hope of entering federal or any of the state parliaments?

The KPÖ has no chance other than in Styria. They hardly break 1% anywhere than in Styria. Same for the Christians. They never get more than 1.5% (they are probably strongest in Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Lower Austria). The Pirates are going down at the moment in the polls. Currently they have only 2-3% support, while 4% are needed. They could get into the state parliament of Tyrol though, but this is also not sure. They are polling 3% there as well.

5) Where do the major parties stand on social issues (abortion & SSM in particular)?

There is a consensus on abortion in Austria, that is shared by all parties. Abortion rights should be legal, say all the party platforms, even though there are voices within the ÖVP, FPÖ and BZÖ that think abortion should not be legal. Only the CPÖ is against abortion rights.

When it comes to coverage of abortions and contraception by the healthcare system, the SPÖ, Greens, KPÖ and Pirates favor that they are covered, while ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ, NEOS and LIF are against.

As for same-sex-marriage, SPÖ, Greens, KPÖ, LIF and NEOS are for it. The BZÖ and ÖVP favor civil unions (which they implemented with the SPÖ in their coalition a few years ago) and the FPÖ is against SSM and civil unions. The CPÖ is also against all forms of SSM-related rights.

[DC Al Fine]

Ah, got it thanks.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

27% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
14% Greens
  8% Team Stronach
  3% BZÖ
  1% KPÖ
  3% Pirates and other parties

Communist surge !!!



http://derstandard.at/1353207887042/57-Prozent-wollen-Gruene-in-der-Regierung-sehen

Also, Frank Stronach continues his crazy interviews on the ORF:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Stronach-Eklat-Frank-greift-ORF-an-VIDEO/86729941

I'm already looking forward to having him in the general election debates with the other party leaders: "Jetz heans ma amol zua ! Wolln's mit mir streitn ? Von da Wirtschaft vastehn Sie nix !"

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Green Party had their federal convention in Linz to select their federal list for the 2013 Austrian parliamentary election.

14 members were newly elected. Out of those 14, about 8-9 will have chances to be in the next parliament via the federal list. The others will be elected from the state party lists. Considering that the first 3 from the federal list have already safe seats from their respective state lists, it means that those elected today in the ranks of 4th to 9th will probably be in the next parliament, if the Greens get the projected 15% of the vote and therefore about 29-30 seats. Currently, 5 out of the 20 Green MP's were elected via the federal list, while 15 were elected from state party lists.

Unsurprisingly, the frontrunner for 2013 will be Eva Glawischnig (current Green Party leader).

But there were also 2 new young members elected to top list positions:

Sigrid Maurer, from the Tyrolian Greens, who is 27 and who also held the post of the Austrian University Parliament President a few years ago:



Julian Schmid, from the Carinthian Greens, who is 23:



...

Here are the full results:

  1. Eva Glawischnig



  2. Werner Kogler



  3. Gabi Moser



  4. Peter Pilz



  5. Christiane Brunner



  6. Sigrid Maurer



  7. Bruno Rossmann



  8. Julian Schmid



  9. Helene Jarmer



10. Georg Bürstmayr



11. Lara Köck



12. Marco Schreuder



13. Juliane Alton



14. Thomas Waitz

[Tender Branson]

New Peter Hajek poll for the "Kleine Zeitung" has the SPÖ ahead in Carinthia !

Also interesting that Team Stronach is 3rd in Carinthia, ahead of the ÖVP and the Greens:

[Tender Branson]

New federal OGM poll:



Draft Referendum:

39% say they will definitely vote
33% say they will likely vote
20% will likely or definitely not vote
  8% are undecided

Among all those who say they will vote, the professional army leads 45-43 (down from 46-40 in the previous poll).

Among the 39% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads 59-41 (up from 51-49 in the previous poll).

Not only seems projected turnout to go down (there was almost no campaigning recently and information of voters), but also the support for the draft seems to increase (especially among those who will actually go to the referendum).

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/heer-fans-im-hoch-parteien-im-tief/1.566.596

[Tender Branson]

Further proof of the COMMUNIST SURGE (new poll out today by Gallup for Ö24:



4% for the Communist Party (KPÖ) is a new record and was last achieved in the mid-1950s.

They are probably riding the wave of the Communist success in Graz a week ago.

Gallup notes that 20% of FPÖ (!!!) voters are eying the Communists when it comes to voting next year. But in general, the KPÖ hurts the Greens and Pirates the most, says Gallup.

Also, notice how the FPÖ has dropped to below 20% for the first time in a few years of Gallup/Ö24 tracking.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Sonntagsfrage-FPOe-faellt-unter-20/86819328

[Tender Branson]

Bad publicity for the ÖVP again ...

Trial of Austrian ex-MEP Ernst Strasser opens

A former Austrian interior minister and Euro MP, Ernst Strasser, has gone on trial in Vienna on corruption charges, after being secretly filmed by British journalists posing as lobbyists.



Mr Strasser, of the conservative Austrian People's Party (OeVP), resigned as an MEP in March 2011.

The UK's Sunday Times newspaper alleged he had accepted offers of cash in exchange for influencing EU laws.

He has denied wrongdoing, saying he guessed that the "lobbyists" were fake.

He says he played along with the ruse in order to find out what was actually motivating the British pair, who dined with him before the Sunday Times expose in March 2011.

Prosecutors accuse him of having asked for a 100,000-euro (£81,000; $130,000) annual payment in exchange for influencing EU legislation in the European Parliament.

Eight days of hearings have been allotted for the trial, and a verdict is expected on 13 December. Mr Strasser, 56, faces up to 10 years in jail if found guilty.

He served as Austrian interior minister from 2000 to 2004.

Three other MEPs were exposed in the Sunday Times "sting" operation: Romania's Adrian Severin, Slovenia's Zoran Thaler and Spain's Pablo Zalba.

They all denied wrongdoing. Mr Thaler resigned and Mr Severin was expelled from the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) bloc, but remains an independent MEP. Pablo Zalba also remains an MEP in Spain's centre-right Popular Party (PP).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20492937

[Tender Branson]

The ballots for the Jan. 20 referendum are already being printed.

About 7 million ballots will be printed, for about 6.35 million eligible voters (The law says there has to be a reserve of ballots, it looks like it's about 10% of the eligible).

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/3180143/stimmzettel-fuer-heeres-volksbefragung-druck.story

[DC Al Fine]

Why are FPO types eyeing the Commies?

[Tender Branson]

Why are FPO types eyeing the Commies?

Because ca. 25-50% of FPÖ-voters are not extreme right-wingers. The die-hard "base" of the FPÖ makes up about 15% I'd say (the share that voted for Barbara Rosenkranz in 2010), while the rest are protest voters, who tend to back the latest (s)hit in town - just not to support the SPÖVP government ! And because of all the recent corruption trials involving the FPK (Carinthia Freedom Party) and former FPÖ-government-members, a lot of those "FPÖ-protest voters" are now eying other alternatives, such as the Team Stronach or even the KPÖ. Even though the KPÖ "mini-surge" won't last really long. I'd be surprised if the KPÖ got more than 1% in the 2013 elections.

[DC Al Fine]

Why are FPO types eyeing the Commies?

Because ca. 25-50% of FPÖ-voters are not extreme right-wingers. The die-hard "base" of the FPÖ makes up about 15% I'd say (the share that voted for Barbara Rosenkranz in 2010), while the rest are protest voters, who tend to back the latest (s)hit in town - just not to support the SPÖVP government ! And because of all the recent corruption trials involving the FPK (Carinthia Freedom Party) and former FPÖ-government-members, a lot of those "FPÖ-protest voters" are now eying other alternatives, such as the Team Stronach or even the KPÖ. Even though the KPÖ "mini-surge" won't last really long. I'd be surprised if the KPÖ got more than 1% in the 2013 elections.

Grr, I hate those types. They're much more obnoxious than the "I vote OVP because that's how my dad voted" people and just as unthinking.

Austrian politics is frustrating. There isn't any major party for a fiscal conservative/social conservative/eurosceptic to vote for,

[Leftbehind]

What? FPO is that, surely? Austrian politics, if anything, has too many right-wing variants on offer.

There's gotta be a contingent more akin to the Labour>BNP or FN>FdG type as well; ie working class support voting for what they deem the best alternative to orthodox solutions, but I suppose FPO is more shamelessly pro-business than those two.

[DC Al Fine]

What? FPO is that, surely? Austrian politics, if anything, has too many right-wing variants on offer.

There's gotta be a contingent more akin to the Labour>BNP or FN>FdG type as well; ie working class support voting for what they deem the best alternative to orthodox solutions, but I suppose FPO is more shamelessly pro-business than those two.

According to the OP, FPO has some economically left tendencies like opposing health care privatization and tuition fees.

The right in Austria is basically:

OVP: Fiscal, Social, Euro
FPO: Fiscal, Social, Euro
BZO: Fiscal, Social, Euro

So basically I'm stuck picking which 2/3 right wing combo I like best instead of voting for a party I can more or less agree with like UKIP.

[Leftbehind]

I'd think that says more about how ridiculous healthcare privatisation is seen in much of the world than any leftist economics on their part (for what it's worth UKIP - unless it's now obsolete - also oppose tuition fees). BZO was created with further neoliberalism in mind, what's wrong with their social policies - they're reactionary, no?

[Hash]

There's little proof that there's a large number of voters who hesitate between the FN and the FG/PCF, ftr. That's just another myth fabricated by the media to sell their papers, akin to the old one that the FN's 80s gains came from the PCF in majority.

[Leftbehind]

I stand corrected then; haven't looked into it - think it was figures on here that actually made me think so in the first place. For what it's worth I'm not totally convinced by the regular suggestion made that most of BNPs support comes from Labour, presumably because it's found in Labour areas. Think it's largely just replaced the working-class Tory voters which have collapsed in these parts. Although having heard BNP types talk nostalgically about old Labour, there's some truth to it.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ-internal poll for the spring 2013 Lower Austria state election:

49% ÖVP (-5)
29% SPÖ (+3)
  8% Greens (+1)
  7% FPÖ (-4)
  7% Team Stronach (+7)

http://www.noen.at/news/politik/Politische-Randnotizen;art150,427321

This is the first poll for Lower Austria that I know of in a few YEARS. But it's an internal, so you should take it with some salt (even though the numbers look credible, with Team Stronach included).

[DC Al Fine]

I'd think that says more about how ridiculous healthcare privatisation is seen in much of the world than any leftist economics on their part (for what it's worth UKIP - unless it's now obsolete - also oppose tuition fees). BZO was created with further neoliberalism in mind, what's wrong with their social policies - they're reactionary, no?

IIRC, BZO is pro-SSM. Although, looking back on what you & Tender Branson have said, I might vote for them as the best of the three.

[Tender Branson]

Team Stronach is now active in 8 out of the 9 states (only Burgenland is missing).

The state leaders are:

Vienna: Jessi Lintl (ex-ÖVP member)
Lower Austria: Karin Prokop (ex-ÖVP member)
Upper Austria: Walter Widholm (ex-SPÖ member)
Styria: Waltraud Dietrich (ex-FPÖ member)
Tyrol: Hans-Peter Mayr (no former member of a party, he's an attorney)
Carinthia: Gerhard Köfer (ex-SPÖ member)
Salzburg: Erich Tadler (ex-BZÖ member)
Vorarlberg: Christoph Hagen (ex-BZÖ member)

Stronach has said they will definitely run in the Carinthia state election that will be held either in 2013 or 2014 (depending on what the FPK decides).

No decision yet about a run in the Lower Austria and Tyrol state elections in the spring of 2013.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/team-stronach-breitet-sich-in-bundeslaendern-aus-38183