Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg closes in half an hour already !



Looking out of my window, I now see whole families getting ready to go to the polling stations.

The next 2 hours are probably the busiest voting hours.

[Tender Branson]

Josef Bucher (BZÖ) has voted:





HC Strache (FPÖ) has voted:

[Tender Branson]

Turnout reports are not bad so far, but I still think it will drop to ca. 74% relative to 2008 (79%)- mostly because old reliable voters are replaced with not so reliable young voters and naturalized citizens. And the 4 state elections this year have also shown an average drop of 5% in turnout.

[peterould]

So, a new SPÖ/ÖVP coalition is a very likely scenario, and if the two parties fail to get a majority of seats a coalition of SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is the most probable outcome, isn't it?

If the red/black coalition can't reach 92 then it depends whether Spindelegger is in front of Strache. Black / Blue / Stronach or Black / Blue / Orange (Bücher and Strache seemed very cosy a few days ago) or even Black / Blue / NEOS in the right circumstances.

However I can't see Blue / Black / XYZ working unless Strache also beat Faymann.

Tender will probably disagree with me on the above, but the blacks have worked with the right before and they could do it again if it was the difference between being Vice-Chancellor of a (not so) Grand Coalition or Chancellor or a right wing accommodation.

[Tender Branson]

So, a new SPÖ/ÖVP coalition is a very likely scenario, and if the two parties fail to get a majority of seats a coalition of SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is the most probable outcome, isn't it?

... or even Black / Blue / NEOS in the right circumstances.

Hell no.

NEOS has categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg has closed already and officials there say turnout is "satisfying".

Whatever that means ...

Anyway, turnout in Vienna at 2pm will be released in ca. 30 minutes.

[peterould]

So, a new SPÖ/ÖVP coalition is a very likely scenario, and if the two parties fail to get a majority of seats a coalition of SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is the most probable outcome, isn't it?

... or even Black / Blue / NEOS in the right circumstances.

Hell no.

NEOS has categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ.

Never say never. There is a difference between serving UNDER Strache and serving alongside Strache.

[Tender Branson]

So, a new SPÖ/ÖVP coalition is a very likely scenario, and if the two parties fail to get a majority of seats a coalition of SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is the most probable outcome, isn't it?

... or even Black / Blue / NEOS in the right circumstances.

Hell no.

NEOS has categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ.

Never say never. There is a difference between serving UNDER Strache and serving alongside Strache.

NEOS is still socially very liberal and pro-EU. It's simply not compatible with the Strache-FPÖ.

[peterould]

So, a new SPÖ/ÖVP coalition is a very likely scenario, and if the two parties fail to get a majority of seats a coalition of SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens is the most probable outcome, isn't it?

... or even Black / Blue / NEOS in the right circumstances.

Hell no.

NEOS has categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ.

Never say never. There is a difference between serving UNDER Strache and serving alongside Strache.

NEOS is still socially very liberal and pro-EU. It's simply not compatible with the Strache-FPÖ.

We'll know in four hours if any of these combinations are even possible...

[Tender Branson]

Also, don't be shocked if the first projection says turnout is only 65% or so.

As far as I know, absentees are not included in this one yet and because they will be counted tomorrow and Thursday, another 9-10% in turnout will be added.

So, any figure between 63-70% in the first projection is normal.

[Tender Branson]

Mirko Messner (KPÖ) has voted:

[Tender Branson]

Eva Glawischnig (Greens) has voted:

[Tender Branson]

2pm Vienna turnout:

41.73%

2008:

46.28%

A drop of 4.5% so far, but the increase in absentee ballots could add ca. 2% to the total.

So, the loss is only ca. 2.5% so far.

[Tender Branson]

And finally, President Fischer and wife voting:

[peterould]

Tender,

Which would you watch - ORF or ATV? I've never seen ATV really so don't know how to judge.

[Tender Branson]

Tender,

Which would you watch - ORF or ATV? I've never seen ATV really so don't know how to judge.

Watch ORF.

There are no fu**ing commercial breaks.

[Tender Branson]

About 1 hour left.

Good time to study historical election maps:

http://orf.at/wahl13/daten/#analyse-ab-1994

http://www.strategieanalysen.at/wahlen/karten/index.php

[peterould]

Tender,

Which would you watch - ORF or ATV? I've never seen ATV really so don't know how to judge.

Watch ORF.

There are no fu**ing commercial breaks.

Comment of the day!

[Tender Branson]

ORF live stream has started:

http://megatv.to/orf-2

First projection is in ca. 1 hour.

[Tender Branson]

The historical election coverage that the ORF is now showing is hilarious !

[Tender Branson]

"Bull GE 53"

A computer that is like 10 meters long.

Times sure are changing ...

[peterould]

I'm loving the chap having his PC fixed live on air...

[mubar]

So I also checked that parteivergleich.eu page. The regular wahlkabine.at gave me a pretty unsurprising result: most agreement with the Greens, while KPÖ, SPÖ and Pirates follow, and NEOS highest of the right-wingers. Parteivergleich on the other seems to make communists from even moderate left-wingers, my result: 1) KPÖ, 2) WANDL, 3) SLP, 4) Grüne, 5) Pirat, 6) SPÖ, 7) NEOS, Stronach and after that the other parties I agree even less with. The EUAUS was by far the last, apparently their only political platform is to get rid of EU immediately.

Which state's results would you recommend to closely follow? Vienna and Vorarlberg both have many small parties on ballot, but on the other hand any of those parties probably won't have much impact. Carinthia's vote is going to have the most change, but based on the state election the results there should be quite predictable. Maybe Styria? The municipal reform there might really hit both SPÖ and ÖVP when the countryside votes Stronach or other right-wingers as protest. At the same time, municipal elections in Graz and in certain parts of Upper Styria show nice potential for KPÖ, so some of the protest could channel there. In any case, Stronach's strongest state should be either Styria or Carinthia, unless he has some very unexpectable supporters.

[Tender Branson]

The state to watch is Upper Austria, it is most closely to the national result.

Carinthia will have completely "new results" in this election, while the full Vorarlberg result should be released soon after 5pm.

Stronach will do best in Styria, followed by Carinthia, yepp.

[Tender Branson]

1st projection in 13 minutes.