Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

I'd think that says more about how ridiculous healthcare privatisation is seen in much of the world than any leftist economics on their part (for what it's worth UKIP - unless it's now obsolete - also oppose tuition fees). BZO was created with further neoliberalism in mind, what's wrong with their social policies - they're reactionary, no?

IIRC, BZO is pro-SSM. Although, looking back on what you & Tender Branson have said, I might vote for them as the best of the three.

The BZÖ is pro-civil unions. The party platform doesn't actually say much about SSM and the party opened the voting for it's members when the civil union law was passed by SPÖVP in 2009. Therefore some BZÖ MP's voted for the law then, and most of them against. Party leader Bucher is also for civil unions, but against SSM rights.

Says Bucher:

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They have about the same position on this as the ÖVP.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd think that says more about how ridiculous healthcare privatisation is seen in much of the world than any leftist economics on their part (for what it's worth UKIP - unless it's now obsolete - also oppose tuition fees). BZO was created with further neoliberalism in mind, what's wrong with their social policies - they're reactionary, no?

IIRC, BZO is pro-SSM. Although, looking back on what you & Tender Branson have said, I might vote for them as the best of the three.

The BZÖ is pro-civil unions. The party platform doesn't actually say much about SSM and the party opened the voting for it's members when the civil union law was passed by SPÖVP in 2009. Therefore some BZÖ MP's voted for the law then, and most of them against. Party leader Bucher is also for civil unions, but against SSM rights.

Says Bucher:

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They have about the same position on this as the ÖVP.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Tender Branson]

Draft polls are all over the place right now:

A new Gallup poll has the draft ahead by 56-44, with women backing it 57-35 and men opposing it 45-43. Young voters below 30 BACK the draft by 52-44.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/daniel/Sprengt-Heer-die-Koalition/87263573

Meanwhile, a new IFES poll among young voters below 30 shows 71% (!!!) backing a professional army and just 20% the draft.

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Klare_Meinung_71_Prozent_der_Jungen_fuer_Profi-Heer-ifes-Umfrage-Story-343164

IFES is a SPÖ-leaning pollster though ...

[Leftbehind]

Guessing that's the fault of low sample sizes taken from cross-breaks?

[Tender Branson]

Guessing that's the fault of low sample sizes taken from cross-breaks?

Yeah, most likely. The Gallup poll has a sample of 400 overall, so the 16-30 age group has only about 60 respondents.

...

BTW, the SPÖ has released another internal poll today from the polling company "meinungsraum.at", in which the professional army leads only by 46-45.

http://www.spoe.at/umfrage-wehrpflicht.html

[Tender Branson]

Then in March there could be the snap Carinthia state election. Regularly scheduled for 2014 this could be called earlier, because of the corruption scandals in the state, involving the FPK (Freedom Party of Carinthia), the ÖVP, the BZÖ and even the SPÖ. Only the Greens are "clean". It looks like the "Team Stronach" might also take part in this election, as well as the Pirate Party.

The state FPK has said that it favors early March 2013 elections, but this could be a bluff and when push comes to shove they could easily wait until the regular 2014 date to set the election date. State law (2/3 requirement) makes it impossible for parties other than the FPK to set the final election date. So, this is not a sure 2013 election yet. We'll see ...

In a "Presse" interview today, Carinthia Governor Gerhard Dörfler (FPK) said that the FPK will definitely set the early state election date for March 3, 2013 next Thursday.

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Nice. So, 3 state elections next year, 1 referendum and 1 parliamentary election.

[Tender Branson]

The Pirates will contest all 4 elections in Austria next year (state elections in Lower Austria, Tyrol, Carinthia and the parliamentary election).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Piraten-treten-2013-bei-vier-Wahlen-an/87573524

Team Stronach is definitely contesting in Carinthia and in the parliamentary election, but no decision yet on Lower Austria and Tyrol (even though I'm sure they will contest them as well).

[Tender Branson]

Also:

In 10 days, the BMI (Interior Ministry) will release the exact number of eligible voters for the Jan. 20 draft referendum. But it will be about 6.400.000 people (+/- 50.000), because the number of citizens remained about the same since the 2010 Presidential election, when 6.355.000 were eligible.

And:

The draft campaign by the main parties will start on Jan. 7 and will last only 2 weeks, because Austrians don't want campaigning during Christmas, New Year and 3-Kings-Holiday (which is on Jan. 6)

The endgame campaign will kick off with a town-hall debate between Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) and ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger on the ORF on Jan. 8, in front of citizens asking them questions about the future system of the Austrian military. Then the parties will launch paid advertising in newspapers, the TV, Internet and will send out mailers and set up huge billboards accross the country and set further debates.

[Tender Branson]

The 340 Mio. € derivative trading loss by a Salzburg state government employee that was discovered this week is creating quite a storm now:

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/politik-verschwieg-verluste-bei-salzburger-finanzen/1.736.980

The newspapers are reporting today that David Brenner, who until now was a rising star within my state's Social Democratic Party, as well as the current state finance minister and likely successor to Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller, knew about the losses since the summer.

The financial department informed Brenner in Mid-July that the (btw highly intelligent female government employee, who was asked by the Deutsche Bank to work for them) was at risk of losing 340 Mio. € in derivatives. Brenner then told the financial department's employee section to revoke the power of the employee to deal with derivatives, check everything she's done and report it to him. Then he ordered her to be put on leave and a new "expert" was hired for the derivatives.

Now everything is being examined, but Brenner says he is not stepping down. Gov. Burgstaller said that "if mistakes were made by us in the past, there will be consequences."

The ÖVP is speculating with snap elections in 2013, instead of 2014 when they are regularly scheduled.

The most important thing now is that the state gets rid of that risky derivative trading (something that other states do as well in big numbers, like the newspapers reported this weekend). It remains open if the loss can be contained so that it won't affect the state budget. But the top SPÖ politicians Burgstaller and Brenner will certainly get a hit in the next polls and who knows, if they knew more about the mess and concealed it to "sit it out", then maybe they have to step down from their offices. This would be HUGE then.



Governor Gabriele Burgstaller and David Brenner

[Tender Branson]

Wow, Brenner apparently fired the state employee and put her on leave, but then asked her in November to help him out with a presentation in the state parliament, regarding the state budget numbers for 2013/14.

WTF ?

If that is true, not only she needed to be fired, but also Brenner - the SPÖ "crown prince".

Salzburg must not become Carinthia !!!

[Tender Branson]

Today, the first demonstrations took place in Salzburg City against the "gamblers":



The state parliament was about to pass the 2013 and 2014 double budget this week, but instead the ÖVP (who is in a grand coaltion with the SPÖ in the state), blocked it.

Instead an emergency budget for 2013 was passed that uses the 2012 figures and extends them month by month.

A "real" budget should be passed in late January, when the issue of the derivatives has been further examined. Some within the ÖVP are now calling for new snap elections in Salzburg, but the ÖVP also knows that Austrian (and state voters) always punish the party that calls for early elections. So, probably the ÖVP will grudingly stay in the SPÖVP coalition and carry on. It's probably better anyway, because in new elections the FPÖ would probably be the big winner and if they wait until 2014, then most likely not. And it's better to examine the derivative loss and find ways to cancel those speculative deals or at least work to come close to no loss ...

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Market for the "Standard":

37% SPÖ
20% FPK
17% Greens
12% ÖVP
10% Team Stronach
  3% BZÖ
  1% Others

Majority for SPÖ-Greens.

Though I only believe these results when I see them on March 3 ...

http://www.format.at/articles/1250/930/348353/umfrage-kaernten-spoe

[Tender Branson]

The Salzburg state ÖVP held a meeting yesterday evening and the ÖVP-boss Wilfried Haslauer pushed a motion for snap state elections that was approved in the meeting.

So, the ÖVP will introduce this motion in the state parliament on January 16, the same day when the 2013/2014 budget is scheduled to be passed.

The SPÖ and Governor Gabriele Burgstaller has categorically ruled out early elections in 2013, saying that this is a "cheap trick by the ÖVP" and that it would only distract the examination of the derivative scandal (an investigation committee will be installed in the next days by the state parliament with the votes of all 4 parties).

Also, the ÖVP alone cannot set early elections, because yesterday the FPÖ and Greens have also said they are NOT in favor of snap elections in the state - right now. The FPÖ is more likely though to back the ÖVP snap election motion on January 16.

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If the motion is approved by a majority of state MPs, then the early elections will take place in April. Austria would have 4 state elections then next year, 1 draft referendum and 1 parliamentary election.

Even though it would be nice if I could vote in 3 elections next year, I also think like the SPÖ and Greens that the derivative scandal needs to be examined first and elections should be held at the regular date in early 2014.

But for the ÖVP it could be a double-edged sword anyway: Not only do Austrian voters punish the party that calls for early elections, the ÖVP is also involved in the derivative scandal via departments and government workers that are headed by the ÖVP.

So, I don't see what their aim is here, unless they have very favorable internal polls right now ...

Right before the scandal, the SPÖ was just slightly ahead of the ÖVP, but within the MoE, which was also the result in the 2009 election.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/oevp-koennte-schwaeche-der-spoe-nutzen-39453

[Tender Branson]

So, what are the latest developments in the derivative scandal ?

Monika R., a state employee and a ÖVP-member, lost 340 million € in derivative trading after she took over the swap department in the finance department in the state, starting in the year 2000 - when the Governor was still from the ÖVP. The finance department back then was headed by the ÖVP too. Permission to act and trade derivatives and swaps was granted her from ÖVP ministers.

In 2004, the SPÖ took over the state, but David Brenner from the SPÖ took over the finance department only in 2007.

Most of the derivative losses came between 2005 and 2007, when Monika R. invested heavily in Icelandic papers.

Brenner learned of the heavy losses in July 2012 and ordered to sack her right away.

So, this is more a problem of the ÖVP in my opinion than a problem of the SPÖ.

The ÖVP wants new elections now (that the FPÖ and Greens will now also back, they said yesterday) and wants to push all the blame on the SPÖ, when actually all the swap and derivative trading started during the time when the ÖVP was in power !

This will not work with me: I will vote SPÖ in the snap elections, because of the destructive and underhanded strategy from the ÖVP to blame the SPÖ alone and force David Brenner to step down. Let's hope many of the voters in my state will see it like this as well and hand the ÖVP another defeat in April !

[Franzl]

You've made 10 posts in a row in this thread

[Tender Branson]

You've made 10 posts in a row in this thread

Well, I post everything that seems slightly interesting ...

[Franzl]

And I would also vote SPÖ in Salzburg. The ÖVP's behavior is absurd.

[Tender Branson]

And I would also vote SPÖ in Salzburg. The ÖVP's behavior is absurd.

Yeah, I could also vote for the Greens again (like I did in the 2009 state elections), but the "Hinterfotzigkeit" of the ÖVP makes me consider the SPÖ this time.

Of course, David Brenner from the SPÖ has made some mistakes and didn't act in a proper manner (but that was probably because he wasn't informed right away from the ÖVP-headed "Personalabteilung" about all the losses accumulated over the years by Monika R.)

Also, his decision to sack Monika R. in July, put her on leave and then ask her again in November to help him with the state budget because he needed a real "budget expert" was a bad decision, but in my opinion it was first and foremost the ÖVP policies and grants from the early 2000s that led to these losses.

[Franzl]

Can I assume that if the Wehrpflichtabschaffung fails in the referendum that the topic is dead in the near future? Because if the SPÖ went into the federal election with that in their platform... I might only be voting for Social Democrats next year in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Can I assume that if the Wehrpflichtabschaffung fails in the referendum that the topic is dead in the near future? Because if the SPÖ went into the federal election with that in their platform... I might only be voting for Social Democrats next year in Austria.

Most likely. If the SPÖ loses the referendum, it's almost a given that the SPÖ Defense Minister will step down and the party will "shut up" about the issue for a while and focus on the state and federal election instead. If the draft is upheld, the ÖVP will have some time to party because they could present a plan to reform the draft and civil service system and get into the spotlight with this. The SPÖ would more or less have to work with the ÖVP to reform the system.

A hope for the SPÖ would be that turnout in the referendum is really low, because of the limited amount of time for campaigning after the holidays, starting at Jan. 7 for only 2 weeks.

If turnout is really low, then the SPÖ could argue that the draft system is not the will of the majority of the people because so few took part. Ironically, this would be about the same situation like in 2010, when the SPÖ-candidate Heinz Fischer won re-election with only 55% turnout. If turnout is in the 60s or 70s, and the draft prevails, then the SPÖ has clearly lost on this issue, the draft will continue and the system will be reformed.

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha, we are getting a "Troika" (like Greece).

The Austrian Finance Minstry is sending 3 people to Salzburg to investigate the investment scandal:

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[Tender Branson]

Governor Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) goes emotional and apologizes to the citizens of my state with tears in her eyes:

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/video-burgstaller-ringt-im-landtag-um-fassung-39771

She also seemed quite pissed in the state parliament today, that this is happening to her government and in this state:





I'm already looking forward to the next polls out of Salzburg ...

[Tender Branson]

New Peter Hajek poll of Carinthia voters, regarding the draft referendum:



59% Keep the mandatory draft and civil service
23% Introduce professional army and voluntary paid social year
  6% I will definitely not vote in the referendum
12% Undecided

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http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/bundesheer/3180703/kaerntner-stimmen-fuer-wehrpflicht.story

[Franzl]

Die spinnen eh in Kärnten...

[Tender Branson]

Die spinnen eh in Kärnten...

*They are nuts in Carinthia anyway*, says Franzl.

...

Maybe Carinthia is way over the Austrian support level for the draft, but all the recent state polls I have seen indicate at least a 55-60% support level for the draft Austria-wide.

Tyrol, Salzburg, Lower Austria and Carinthia polls have wide margins for the draft. I think Burgenland and Styria as border states are also extremely in favor of the draft.

That leaves Vienna, Upper Austria and Vorarlberg. While there might be a majority for the professional army in those first 2 states, I don't think there won't be in Vorarlberg.

And Vienna and Upper Austria are not enough for the SPÖ-campaign proposal to win.