(D-MN) Sen. Mark Dayton expected to bow out of re-election bid

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the man who was too scared of terrorism in DC to stay during the election is too scared to run for re-election in a dangerous seat.

The free-for-all cometh...

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5231507.html

WASHINGTON, D.C.-- Minnesota Democratic sources said they believe Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn., will announce today that he will not seek reelection to a second term in the Senate.

Two knowledgeable Democratic sources said Dayton was believed to have made the decision because of a series of events that darkened his reelection prospects.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll showed his approval rating had plummeted to 43 percent, and Republicans have already made the freshman Democrat their top target for ouster in next year's election.

One source said Dayton told his staff in Minnesota and Washington of his decision shortly before noon today.

Dayton has scheduled a telephone news conference at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.

[NHPolitico]

I expect Al Franken to announce he's running within 7 days.

I also expect Mary Kiffmeyer to be the junior senator from Minnesota in 2007.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Very interesting. I had never heard anything of this. This would be too bad, but we could hold it.

Kiffmeyer pissed a lot of people off last election, and she's never topped 50% for the Sec. of State position, I have to say she's far too polarzing to win now.

[Sibboleth]

If Dayton don't run again, the DFL probably has a better chance to hold the seat than if he does run again...

[So the Heroes Fall]

Especially if we get Alan Page to run. The GOP can forget about this seat in that case.

[Sam Spade]

The power of incumbency is much stronger than the strength of potential candidates running typically in the Senate.

When we know who the candidates are, we will certainly have a better idea.

Right now, the seat is a definite tossup until then.

[Sibboleth]

The power of incumbency is much stronger than the strength of potential candidates running typically in the Senate.

Usually

[Sam Spade]

The power of incumbency is much stronger than the strength of potential candidates running typically in the Senate.

Usually

Well, let's put it this way.  I would say there are maybe one, maybe two races every Senate term where incumbency is more of a hindrance than not.  This might have been one of those races; it might not have been.

A 43% approval rating in a Senate campaign is not "you're a goner" territory, just because of that incumbency factor.

It would make things a little difficult though, and I guess the Democrats decided to take their chances in an open race rather than gamble on Dayton.

This may turn out to be a good move, it might not.  Time will tell.

[AuH2O]

Open seats create other headaches though, in this case for Democrats. Have to have a primary, and it's harder to raise money if you aren't an incumbent. That means less resources for other races.

[NHPolitico]

Especially if we get Alan Page to run. The GOP can forget about this seat in that case.

Page scares me, yes.

[Keystone Phil]

While I love the fact that Dayton might be leaving, the seat is now more likely to stay Dem.

Run Al Franken!

[Akno21]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

[Sarnstrom]

Jesse Ventura for Senate!

[Keystone Phil]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

[WalterMitty]

great news!

what a horrible senator mark dayton is.  but then again, rod grams was pretty bad too.

the republicans have a good chance of winning this seat.  but i fully expect them to do something stupid like nominate that f'er that paul wellstone beat (again and again).

[Akno21]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

I'll assume that you haven't read his books, but I assure you, he knows something about politics. I think we could find a better candidate somewhere however.

I would like to know his positions on issues though. I'm assuming he's pretty liberal, but I'm not sure.

[Keystone Phil]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

I'll assume that you haven't read his books, but I assure you, he knows something about politics. I think we could find a better candidate somewhere however.

I would like to know his positions on issues though. I'm assuming he's pretty liberal, but I'm not sure.

Read his books? Why waste my time?

I'm sure he's educated but I don't think someone like that can win a Senate seat.

[Akno21]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

I'll assume that you haven't read his books, but I assure you, he knows something about politics. I think we could find a better candidate somewhere however.

I would like to know his positions on issues though. I'm assuming he's pretty liberal, but I'm not sure.

Read his books? Why waste my time?

I'm sure he's educated but I don't think someone like that can win a Senate seat.

I don't think he's electable with Minnesota as a whole, but I could see him winning something within the Twin cities.

I'll read a Coulter classic if you read a Franken, preferebly lies and lying liars who tell them, but Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot is fine by me.

[Keystone Phil]

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

I'll assume that you haven't read his books, but I assure you, he knows something about politics. I think we could find a better candidate somewhere however.

I would like to know his positions on issues though. I'm assuming he's pretty liberal, but I'm not sure.

Read his books? Why waste my time?

I'm sure he's educated but I don't think someone like that can win a Senate seat.

I don't think he's electable with Minnesota as a whole, but I could see him winning something within the Twin cities.

I'll read a Coulter classic if you read a Franken, preferebly lies and lying liars who tell them, but Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot is fine by me.

I'm not a fan of Coulter so you'd have to read something else but it doesn't matter. I still won't waste my time reading Fraken.

[MN--Troy]

Very interesting. I had never heard anything of this. This would be too bad, but we could hold it.

Kiffmeyer pissed a lot of people off last election, and she's never topped 50% for the Sec. of State position, I have to say she's far too polarzing to win now.

Mary Kiffmeyer would be better suited to run for the 6th district if Mark Kennedy decides to run for the senate.

Mary Kiffmeyer has never topped 50% in any election, but topping 50% is not a barometer for winning a Minnesota senate seat.  If that were the case than a Paul Wellstone would have never been elected to U.S. Senate. Wellstone never had been elected to any public office before he defeated Rudy Boschwitz. And Paul Wellstone is not the exception either.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Very interesting. I had never heard anything of this. This would be too bad, but we could hold it.

Kiffmeyer pissed a lot of people off last election, and she's never topped 50% for the Sec. of State position, I have to say she's far too polarzing to win now.

Mary Kiffmeyer would be better suited to run for the 6th district if Mark Kennedy decides to run for the senate.

Mary Kiffmeyer has never topped 50% in any election, but topping 50% is not a barometer for winning a Minnesota senate seat.  If that were the case than a Paul Wellstone would have never been elected to U.S. Senate. Wellstone never had been elected to any public office before he defeated Rudy Boschwitz. And Paul Wellstone is not the exception either.

yeah, but the point is she couldn't even top 50% before she sent out those stupid terrorist warning posters and dug up an obscurish law to kick third parties off the ballot.

If Arnold can win, Franken can win.

Franken is not on the same level as Arnold.

Right now, I'm hoping for either Mark Kennedy or Rod Grams as the nominee for the Republicans and Franken for the Dems.

lol, nominate Grams for sure! That's a surefire way to keep it in our column.

nominating Grams is the stupidest thing the GOP can do. The second stupidest would be to nominate someone like Alan Quist or Michele Bachmann, which is possible but sadly not likely.

I wonder if my state sen. John Hottinger will jump into this. He'd  has aspirations for higher office and would be a prety good candidate. He's liberal enough to win the primary and satisfy the base, but he's from outstate so the GOP can't claim he's some Twin Cities liberal elitist.

I wonder if Betty McCollum would run. She'd be a great senator but she might too liberal to win statewide, then again Kerry did. She'd have no problem beating Grams, Quist or Bachmann for sure though, so if the GOP is stupid enough to nominate one of them she'd be my favorite.

[Keystone Phil]

lol, nominate Grams for sure! That's a surefire way to keep it in our column.

nominating Grams is the stupidest thing the GOP can do. The second stupidest would be to nominate someone like Alan Quist or Michele Bachmann, which is possible but sadly not likely.

I wonder if my state sen. John Hottinger will jump into this. He'd  has aspirations for higher office and would be a prety good candidate. He's liberal enough to win the primary and satisfy the base, but he's from outstate so the GOP can't claim he's some Twin Cities liberal elitist.

And what about Mark Kennedy?

[So the Heroes Fall]

lol, nominate Grams for sure! That's a surefire way to keep it in our column.

nominating Grams is the stupidest thing the GOP can do. The second stupidest would be to nominate someone like Alan Quist or Michele Bachmann, which is possible but sadly not likely.

I wonder if my state sen. John Hottinger will jump into this. He'd  has aspirations for higher office and would be a prety good candidate. He's liberal enough to win the primary and satisfy the base, but he's from outstate so the GOP can't claim he's some Twin Cities liberal elitist.

And what about Mark Kennedy?

Like I said, he's pretty generic. No real strengths or weaknesses, except that he's never topped 60% in his district and came within 6 points of losing to a political novice last election.

The best GOP candidate like I've been saying forever would be Jim Ramstad. But he is very unlikely to run since he wants to keep his House position, and the conservatives would hate him since he's basically an Arlen Specter Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

lol, nominate Grams for sure! That's a surefire way to keep it in our column.

nominating Grams is the stupidest thing the GOP can do. The second stupidest would be to nominate someone like Alan Quist or Michele Bachmann, which is possible but sadly not likely.

I wonder if my state sen. John Hottinger will jump into this. He'd  has aspirations for higher office and would be a prety good candidate. He's liberal enough to win the primary and satisfy the base, but he's from outstate so the GOP can't claim he's some Twin Cities liberal elitist.

And what about Mark Kennedy?

Like I said, he's pretty generic. No real strengths or weaknesses, except that he's never topped 60% in his district and came within 6 points of losing to a political novice last election.

The best GOP candidate like I've been saying forever would be Jim Ramstad. But he is very unlikely to run since he wants to keep his House position, and the conservatives would hate him since he's basically an Arlen Specter Republican.

Then let's keep Ramstad out of the picture. 

What about Gil Gutknecht? (Just trying to get your opinion of the possible candidates' chances.)

[King]

Let's get rid of more bad Senators from Minnesota...COLEMAN OUT IN '08!