(D-MN) Sen. Mark Dayton expected to bow out of re-election bid

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the man who was too scared of terrorism in DC to stay during the election is too scared to run for re-election in a dangerous seat.

The free-for-all cometh...

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5231507.html

WASHINGTON, D.C.-- Minnesota Democratic sources said they believe Sen. Mark Dayton, D-Minn., will announce today that he will not seek reelection to a second term in the Senate.

Two knowledgeable Democratic sources said Dayton was believed to have made the decision because of a series of events that darkened his reelection prospects.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll showed his approval rating had plummeted to 43 percent, and Republicans have already made the freshman Democrat their top target for ouster in next year's election.

One source said Dayton told his staff in Minnesota and Washington of his decision shortly before noon today.

Dayton has scheduled a telephone news conference at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.

[Sam Spade]

The power of incumbency is much stronger than the strength of potential candidates running typically in the Senate.

When we know who the candidates are, we will certainly have a better idea.

Right now, the seat is a definite tossup until then.

[Sam Spade]

The power of incumbency is much stronger than the strength of potential candidates running typically in the Senate.

Usually

Well, let's put it this way.  I would say there are maybe one, maybe two races every Senate term where incumbency is more of a hindrance than not.  This might have been one of those races; it might not have been.

A 43% approval rating in a Senate campaign is not "you're a goner" territory, just because of that incumbency factor.

It would make things a little difficult though, and I guess the Democrats decided to take their chances in an open race rather than gamble on Dayton.

This may turn out to be a good move, it might not.  Time will tell.