Clinton in Louisiana (1996)
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  Clinton in Louisiana (1996)
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: December 06, 2012, 11:39:28 PM »

What explains Louisiana's strong swing to Clinton in 1996 while most other southern states (even Arkansas) swung slightly against him?
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2012, 10:59:36 PM »

Catholics? Good economy and a neighboring poor state.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2012, 11:53:24 PM »

I'm not surprised that he won Louisiana both times. Clinton won several southern states. The thing that surprises me is that Louisiana strung strongly towards Clinton. In 1996, Clinton improved upon his previous margin of victory by doing much better in the states we consider blue states, specifically states in the Northeast. However, Clinton lost touch with the south after four years in Washington and he lost ground in Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia and even Arkansas.

Margin lost/gained between 1992 and 1996

Arkansas: 17.73, 16.94 (-.79)
Georgia: .59,  -1.17 (-1.79)
Tennessee: 4.65, 2.41 (-2.24)
Kentucky: 3.21, .96 (-2.22)
Louisiana: 4.61, 12.07 (+7.46)
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2012, 01:29:44 AM »

Tough to say.  I would guess that both Arkansans and Louisianans saw him as one of their own.  He had room for improvement in Louisiana in 1996, but had no room for improvement in Arkansas?  It's certainly an interesting result. 

Remember, LA is one of those states where Democrats have a stupidly large registration advantage, not that they vote that way nationally anymore...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2012, 01:48:27 AM »

I've always wondered about this, as well. It's especially weird because in 1996, trends toward Clinton concentrated heavily in the Northeast and Midwest, whereas most of the South was starting its inexorable drift toward the GOP.

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2012, 02:06:37 AM »

I lived in New Orleans for 25 years now, and I don't have a good answer for you.  Maybe since Louisiana is an oil state, Bush Sr. was a better candidate fit  than Dole.

The swing was statewide from the Baptist North to the Cajun Southwest to metro New Orleans and Baton Rouge.  Maybe a little stronger in New Orleans and a little weaker in Acadiana, but I don't remember any particular issue or local reason for the swing, but honestly I don't remember anything remarkable about that election at all.
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