Greece General Discussion

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

My God is Juncker stupid?

[politicus]

The expected breakdown of Indies before tonight vote:

7 "Yes":

Katerina Markou, Spiros Lykoudis, Panagiotis Melas, Grigoris Psarianos. Christos Aidonis, Kostas Giovanopoulos, Giorgos Davris.

10 "Present=No":

Odysseas Voudouris, Theodoros Parastatidis, Chrysoula Giatagana, Petros Tatsopoulos, Mimis Androulakis, Rachel Makri, Markos Bolaris, Paris Moutsinas, Vassilis Kapernaros, Theodora Tzakri.

7 undecided or mixed:.

Vassilis Oikonomou: Will vote present tonight, but says this will not predetermine his stance in the next two votes.

Mika Iatridi has said she will not change her vote throughout the process. She said she most probably will go for “present”.

Giorgos Kasapidis and Yannis Kourakos hasn't said anything,

Byron Polymerase has said he "would become the 180th if there were 179", but unclear what he will do tonight.

Former Golden Dawn members Chrysovalantis Alexopoulos and Stathis Boukouras are expected to go for 'yes', but haven't declared.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

Good grief, why is the EU establishment so bone-headed?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks of "major problems" if they vote in the "wrong" way. Pierre Moscovici avoided an explicit endorsement, but praised the "impressive" strides made by the government.

Good grief, why is the EU establishment so bone-headed?

Of course they are. How do you think we got into that mess.

[swl]

It's scary how they have absolutely no understanding of the average citizen...

[politicus]

Dimas only got 160, 135 No (officially present). Big dissapointment for the government. Ministers had unofficially said anything below 160 was a disaster.

[politicus]

It will be interesting to see the breakdown. They claimed seven certain indies. Either some of their own people are among the five that didn't show up (unlikely) or they got even less than that.

[Bacon King]

RIP Samaras Government

[politicus]

Among the seven "certain" Yes voters Former ANEL MPs, Panagiotis Melas voted no, so down to max six.

Former ANEL Yiannis Kourakos, who was considered fairly safe Yes also voted no.

Among the five absent were former Golden Dawn MP Boukouras and former ANEL MP Giovanopoulos (one of the "seven certain"), but the three others are unconfirmed,

[Simfan34]

Oh dear- this doesn't look good.

[swl]

Does anyone know whether it is possible to nominate new candidates after the first round?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Does anyone know whether it is possible to nominate new candidates after the first round?

Of course. You can field a different candidate at every round if you wish so.

[swl]

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

[politicus]

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

The government knew right from the start that only the third round was winnable. They never counted on winning the first two. They are just tests.

[politicus]

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

There is no mentioning in the press that they might consider it, but then again this was a much worse result than expected, so maybe.

Right from the start I thought bringing a well respected artist or scientist in play would have been the smart move, but the Greeks have no tradition for non-political Presidents. Dimas is on the ND left and has done a lot for the environment as EU-commissioner. I think they considered him as someone acceptable to the left, while still not problematic for right wing Indies. They have the problem that they need support from both left wingers and right wingers, so not easy to find someone better unless they go non-political.

There is also the hypothesis among some "experts" that they are gambling on a "parenthesis of the left". Handing power to a Syriza led government which will then crash and be forced to call an election, which will then give a solid majority to the old parties. Get the threat out of the way, so to speak. Dunno if thats realistic, but it would explain some things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

haha

[Bacon King]

relevant bit of Greek Constitution:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[politicus]

relevant bit of Greek Constitution:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, it will take (too much) time to get organized and actually be able to form a working Syriza-government if they win.

"Let us make a very realistic working assumption: that the current parliament on the 29th of December will be unable to elect a President of the Republic. As such, within 10 days parliament will be dissolved and elections announced – within 30 days – which will be won by the party which holds a steady lead in the polls over recent months: that is, SYRIZA.

At a first glance, even with an absolute majority the new government will first have to elect a President of the Republic and subsequently seek a vote of confidence from parliament. That means that the soonest we will have a government will be the 15th of February!

To put it simply, the new government will have about 2 weeks to come to an understanding with the Troika to conclude – if it hasn’t happened until then – the review of the bailout program and reach an agreement over a precautionary credit line, or to negotiate its own program as Alexis Tsipras has committed to doing, in the event that SYRIZA wins the elections.

One question is immediately raised: Why did Samaras and Venizelos - despite the pressure of the lenders to do so - not request a six month extension, or at least a three month extension of the program in order for the new government to have time to negotiate?"

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-unpatriotic-politics-of-the-coalition-government

[Bacon King]

Haha wow so they're literally already undermining the Tsipras Government before it begins

[Velasco]

If they are contemplating the "Parenthesis of the Left" scenario, it's clear that -in order to stay in power- they don't care if they are undermining the present and the future of the country. The easy conclusion is that Samaras and Venizelos lack of moral legitimacy before the Greek people, because they are part of the problem. Therefore, getting rid of both is the first step to change anything. Hopefully for better, but that's uncertain. 

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-trap-set-for-tsipras-a-parenthesis-of-the-left

[politicus]

New poll shows the gap closing. Still, its conducted on 14-17. We are still waiting for one polled after the vote. Hopefully they do one today and tomorrow. ANEL is really on the edge now.

SYRIZA 28.5% 
New Democracy 24.9%
PASOK 4.8%.
Golden Dawn 5.8%
Communists  5.4%
The River 5.4%
Independent Greeks 3%
Undecided 7.8%

56.1% prefer a new president elected by parliament, while only 40.4% favour snap elections.

[politicus]

PASOK may be willing to look into the old Indie/DIMAR proposal of a three step compromise plan:

1. Consensus on electing a president - new candidate.
2. Launching constitutional reform process (incl. directly elected president)
3. Setting a date for early general elections later in 2015 (most likely autumn)

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/pasok-might-side-with-independents-initiative-for-wider-consensus

[Bacon King]

^ that poll would give a parliament as follows (take it with a grain of salt though because the undecideds aren't factored in):

SYRIZA: 143
ND: 81
XA: 18
KKE: 17
Potami: 17
PASOK: 15
ANEL: 9

[swl]

If they are contemplating the "Parenthesis of the Left" scenario, it's clear that -in order to stay in power- they don't care if they are undermining the present and the future of the country. The easy conclusion is that Samaras and Venizelos lack of moral legitimacy before the Greek people, because they are part of the problem. Therefore, getting rid of both is the first step to change anything. Hopefully for better, but that's uncertain.  

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-trap-set-for-tsipras-a-parenthesis-of-the-left

I think we can safely assume that a majority of politicians and their families in Greece would be in serious trouble if anyone started looking seriously at their past behavior (corruption, tax evasion, etc). It's a bit sad but I think a new political class would have to turn a blind eye on the past wrongdoings.

[Bacon King]

!!!

Breaking news:

ANEL backbencher Pavlos Chaikalos announced on a Greek morning TV show that someone repeatedly offered him bribes to vote for Dimas and that he recorded one of the attempts and has already testified to prosecutors about it. He was allegedly offered €700,000 in cash, €2 or €3 million in professional contracts, and the full settlement of his current bank loans. The TV host said he was aware of another MP who had privately made similar allegations.