Greece General Discussion

[MaxQue]

The new government announced some measures today, but didn't see anything about its income tax hike to 75% on incomes beyond 500k euros.  Has it said anything about this yet?

That proposal was in their May 2012 platform and they have not mentioned it since. There was zero mention of tax increases in the platform they ran on in 2015

Well, unless they raise SOME taxes, how are they going to fund their spending - especially, as they are refusing to sell things off.

Honestly, if I were them, I would sell Western Thrace to the Turks. Erdogan would pay a fortune

Well, raising taxes have no use with the widespread tax evasion. Raising taxes on people not paying any won't make any change.

Well, he could take their kids hostage, or something.

Well, yes, something has to be done about widespread tax evasion. I happen to think it's more logical to build a solid system preventing it and then raising taxes than the reverse. Doing it the other way would punish people paying taxes and would likely increase tax evasion.

Ok, fine. Do Germans have to coninue financing Greek government in the interim?

Their choice, but, you know, even ND would have needed more money. You can't turn around the economical situation of a country in 6 months!

[Bacon King]

The new government announced some measures today, but didn't see anything about its income tax hike to 75% on incomes beyond 500k euros.  Has it said anything about this yet?

That proposal was in their May 2012 platform and they have not mentioned it since. There was zero mention of tax increases in the platform they ran on in 2015

Well, unless they raise SOME taxes, how are they going to fund their spending - especially, as they are refusing to sell things off.

Honestly, if I were them, I would sell Western Thrace to the Turks. Erdogan would pay a fortune

Here's their 2015 platform:
http://links.org.au/node/4209

It's revenue neutral, with €12 billion from increased revenue, mostly to be earned from encouraging/coercing compliance with existing tax laws and the related debts that Greeks already owe

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tsipras appointed as his External Affairs Minister a well-known Putin admirer with ties to the infamous Aleksandr Dugin.
Splendid.

[Foucaulf]

After Greek energy and finance ministers aired off their grievances about sanctions to Russia, any observer worth their salt has realized Syriza is also threatening a rapproachment with Russia as part of its negotiations - "the Russia card," so to speak.

There is something very clever about this move. Though Syriza's alternative foreign policy was telegraphed during the campaign, it does not seem like to me that people took it seriously. Now, a day before negotiations, the press is taking it very seriously. What Syriza is doing is compelling national decision makers to make a tradeoff between getting their money back and national security. While this is not enough to actually pressure the ECB into a debt writeoff, the hope would be to cause enough dissension among European leaders such that the ECB loses the pressure to play hardball with Greece.

While debt lended by the ECB itself is not up to negotiation (a member of the executive reiterated this fact this morning), a third of the package is debt from other Eurozone countries.

Of course, clever isn't enough for victory. All the meetings and press rumours right now are just gossip, really. The negotiations start on Friday, when Finance Minister Varoufakis meets with ECB chief Draghi. We'll see who makes the initial offer.

[Mehmentum]

That is pretty damn clever.  So far Tsipras has played his hand very well.

[ag]

That is pretty damn clever.  So far Tsipras has played his hand very well.

It is clever, but dangerous. Because they could call the bluff and tell him to go get his refinancing in Moscow. Hitching himself to a sinking ship is dangerous. Also, that brings into the conversation not merely the eurozone, but EU itself - the others might decide that European collective decision-making would be better without any Greece involved. And leaving both euro and EU would lead to a real humanitarian disaster in Greece.

[ag]

Tsipras appointed as his External Affairs Minister a well-known Putin admirer with ties to the infamous Aleksandr Dugin.
Splendid.

Well, this is going to be entertaining

[jaichind]

Amateur Hour Keeps Traders Guessing. Bank stocks in Athens lost about $11 billion of their value after ministers in the newly formed government made some populist proclamations, namely, pledging to increase the nation’s minimum wage and halt privatizations.  Deputy Prime Minister Yiannis Dragassakis told people to essentially ignore those comments today, saying they were the product of inexperienced officials speaking out of turn. Greece is, he said, “interested in attracting investors.”

[ag]

Amateur Hour Keeps Traders Guessing. Bank stocks in Athens lost about $11 billion of their value after ministers in the newly formed government made some populist proclamations, namely, pledging to increase the nation’s minimum wage and halt privatizations.  Deputy Prime Minister Yiannis Dragassakis told people to essentially ignore those comments today, saying they were the product of inexperienced officials speaking out of turn. Greece is, he said, “interested in attracting investors.”

Russian investors, I presume.

[Bacon King]

Tsipras appointed as his External Affairs Minister a well-known Putin admirer with ties to the infamous Aleksandr Dugin.
Splendid.

he isn't rocking the boat with EU sanctions against Russia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/world/europe/european-union-russia-sanctions-greece.html?_r=0

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.parapolitiki.com/2015/01/new-greek-foreign-ministers-awkward.html

Professor Nikos Kotzias was nominated as the new Foreign Minister of Greece in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and he has already received severe criticism, for what is politely described by The Economist as "cordial relations" with the religious-nationalist segment of the Russian elite.

After a rather moderate career as an expert-diplomat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kotzias emerged as a prominent figure in the greek public sphere over the last years, when he supported some of the most populist explanations of the greek crisis.

In Kotzias' worldview, modern Germany should be blamed almost for everything. In fact, Kotzias regards the Eurozone crisis just as a Berlin-motivated plan to transform countries like Greece into modern German protectorates. The title of his last book is more than clear: Greece, a Debt Colony – European Empire and German primacy.

The problem in Kotzias' case is that he has crossed the line more than once and has pointed out some analogies between Nazi Germany and modern Germany of Angela Merkel. This has offered him some recognition among far-right parties and opinion-makers in Greece.

Here are some of his quotes:

-Germany believes that she found some free space to march in the Middle East and control Cyprus, the 'unsinkable aircraft carrier', geo-economically. To set foot in where Hitlerism failed to reach. (Epikaira Magazine, 18 April 2013)

-Germans want to pop up in the Middle East, a place that they failed to conquer under the guidance of (General) Romel. (Epikaira Magazine, 26 April 2013)

-Nowadays, Germany doesn't display biological racism, as it did during 19th century and in some part of the 20th century. However, Germany spreads financial racism and nationalism. (Interview in Eleytherotypia, 19 April 2014)

-Germany, in order to play its new role, which is desired by its own dominant forces, continuously reconsiders its history, aiming -among other things- to get rid of its responsibility for crimes it committed in the 20th century. (Personal Blog, 1 March 2014)

[politicus]

-Nowadays, Germany doesn't display biological racism, as it did during 19th century and in some part of the 20th century. However, Germany spreads financial racism and nationalism.

I have heard many ludicrous attempts to use the term racism where it doesn't belong, but "financial racism" is a new one..

I would expect Nikos Kotzias to be more of an ANEL pick. Has he any left wing credentials? Or did they chose him to accomodate ANEL?

[Landslide Lyndon]

-Nowadays, Germany doesn't display biological racism, as it did during 19th century and in some part of the 20th century. However, Germany spreads financial racism and nationalism.

I have heard many ludicrous attempts to use the term racism where it doesn't belong, but "financial racism" is a new one..

I would expect Nikos Kotzias to be more of an ANEL pick. Has he any left wing credentials? Or did they chose him to accomodate ANEL?

He was a close adviser to George Papandreou but he left PASOK when Papandreou refused to consider him as Foreign Minister in 2009.

[Foucaulf]

Varoufakis has a pretty full itinerary starting today - after meeting with Eurogroup President Djisselbloem today, he's meeting with George Osborne next week, as well as the French and Italian Finance Ministers and EU Commissioner Juncker.

The problem is that his first meeting is already a bit of a farce. At the press conference, Varoufakis announced his plan: negotiating with all partners (i.e. not with the Troika) to come to some negotiated end to the bailout schemes. Djisselbloem shot him down right after.

A picture says a thousand words, really.




EDIT: A year ago, Greece had surplus demand for their 3-year maturity government bonds. Now the yield rates are at 19%. Not as bad at 2011, but we're getting there.

[Beezer]

What if...they really believe their weird strategy can be successful? I know everybody's always thinking that at some point Syriza will come around but these guys have no experience of being in government. Maybe they really are drinking the Kool Aid.

[ag]

Maybe they really are drinking the Kool Aid.

Most likely, they are. Well, you know what happens to those who do.

If I were Erdogan, I would start planning for taking over Western Thrace.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What if...they really believe their weird strategy can be successful? I know everybody's always thinking that at some point Syriza will come around but these guys have no experience of being in government. Maybe they really are drinking the Kool Aid.

Then the Greek people will get what they voted for.

[Hash]

I note that ANEL got the Defense and Macedonia and Thrace portfolios. This is going to be fun.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe they really are drinking the Kool Aid.

Most likely, they are. Well, you know what happens to those who do.

As long as it is not Flavor Aid.

[ag]

I mean, we should not be making fun of the Greeks. The old parties screwed up badly - the voters had every right to run them out of town. Pity, they chose the Kool Aid crowd instead - but they took a long time to be pushed that way.

Greece should have never adopted the euro. And, of course, once the crisis started, the right thing to do would have been to negotiate the return to the drachma and devaluation. Trying to deflate out of trouble was politically unsustainable - everybody knew that. Well, acting on wish and prayer, the "responsible politicians" responsibled themselves into irrelevance.

Now, of course, Greece´s foreign partners do share some blame. They should have, actually, proposed the way out of euro, and offered to provide means to soften the blow. But, then, again, German negotiators are not supposed to be representing the interests of Greek voters - Greece elects its own government for thos purposes. Unfortunately, it now elected a bunch of idiots, it seems. But, given the last few years, it is easy to see how one can think that even idiots would do better.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/greece-shuns-eu-bailout-cash-before-dijsselbloem-visit

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis set the clock ticking on Greece’s standoff with the euro area on Friday saying he’s ready to take his chances without a financial backstop rather than submit to more austerity.

Unless EU/Germany folds then we are looking at the collapse of all Greek banks without liquidity support from the ECB which will in turn will lead the the nationalization of all Greek banks and collapse of the Greek financial system.  I think in the end Tsipras will fold and come crawling back.

[ag]

 I think in the end Tsipras will fold and come crawling back.

I doubt. He was elected on this. And not that he would ideologically object to a bank nationalization.

It will be an awful period for an average Greek, of course. That is why I have long believed that it should have been a "normal" Greek government that should have taken Greece out of the euro: they would have been able to do it more gently. This way, it will be much harder. And dealing with the consequences will take a generation, at least.

My condolences to the Greek public.

[Foucaulf]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/greece-shuns-eu-bailout-cash-before-dijsselbloem-visit

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis set the clock ticking on Greece’s standoff with the euro area on Friday saying he’s ready to take his chances without a financial backstop rather than submit to more austerity.

For the sake of balance, Varoufakis characterizes his views in English on Newsnight. (start at 3:30)

Varoufakis says he did not say he will stop negotiating with the Troika institutions, but wants a "new agreement" without "representatives here ... to enforce and oversee the implementation of a programme that has utterly failed"

Nor did he say he wants to stop privatizations, but for the new government to begin a new auction.

[ingemann]

I mean, we should not be making fun of the Greeks. The old parties screwed up badly - the voters had every right to run them out of town. Pity, they chose the Kool Aid crowd instead - but they took a long time to be pushed that way.

I agree, it's really hard condemn the Greeks for running Pasok and ND out of town. But beside that I think we should give the Greeks a chance before we see whether Syriza was the Kool Aid. Some of the structural changes to the ministeries look promising, and that's something which have been noted outside Greece.

One of the main reasons, for how hard the rest of EU have dealt with Greece, is the fact that the past Greek governments after the crisis have been unwilling to make any structural reforms. Which meant that the only medicine you could force on Greece was austerity. If this new government start structural re-organisation, which lower the Greek corruption, it's not impossible that Syriza may get some extra good will compared to the old government which no one trusted.

[Beezer]

The trolling continues...

New Greek nationalist defence minister resurrects old tensions with Turkey

Greece’s new nationalist defence minister has prompted Turkey to scramble fighter jets just days after taking office by taking a helicopter trip over the uninhabited islets off the Turkish coast that nearly triggered a war in 1996.

Turkish jets entered Greek airspace and were intercepted by Greek jets as the defence minister, Panos Kammenos, and military chiefs flew by helicopter to the islet of Imia to drop wreaths in memory of three Greek officers killed nearby in a helicopter crash 19 years ago, the Greek defence ministry said.

[...]

 “The reason the defence minister went there was to show his patriotism and to honour those who died there,” an Independent Greeks party spokeswoman, Marina Chysoveloni, said. “No one had ever done this in the last 19 years.“

Ankara did not confirm its aircraft had entered Greek airspace. “All the necessary precautions were taken by our side but, as our airspace has not been violated, there is no need for a reaction,” a foreign ministry official said.

...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/30/greece-turkey-imia-kardak-tensions-fighter-jets