Greece General Discussion

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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_01/12/2014_545056

It seems like Tsipras has been consulting a lot on defense and foreign affairs lately, including with the current government. It looks a bit like he is taking a crash course on these topics. My understanding is that he's getting seriously prepared to become prime minister.

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Stavros Dimas has been nominated as presidential candidate. I don't know who he is but he is also vice-president of New Democracy, so my guess is that he is not really a consensual candidate.

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It's scary how they have absolutely no understanding of the average citizen...

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Does anyone know whether it is possible to nominate new candidates after the first round?

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I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

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If they are contemplating the "Parenthesis of the Left" scenario, it's clear that -in order to stay in power- they don't care if they are undermining the present and the future of the country. The easy conclusion is that Samaras and Venizelos lack of moral legitimacy before the Greek people, because they are part of the problem. Therefore, getting rid of both is the first step to change anything. Hopefully for better, but that's uncertain.  

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-trap-set-for-tsipras-a-parenthesis-of-the-left

I think we can safely assume that a majority of politicians and their families in Greece would be in serious trouble if anyone started looking seriously at their past behavior (corruption, tax evasion, etc). It's a bit sad but I think a new political class would have to turn a blind eye on the past wrongdoings.

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Samaras offered to widen the governing coalition and to organize early elections before the end of 2015 once the bailout talks are complete. Apparently several independent MPs see that as an acceptable compromise, and the leaders of ANEL and the Democratic Left rejected the offer (but party discipline does not seem really high). We will see on the 23rd what difference it makes.

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I couldn't agree more: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/how-to-save-greece-now

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If the two options left are a concerted haircut on the Greek debt or a unilateral default, the former is the less worse option for everyone: Greece, Germany and everyone else in Europe.

Maybe I overestimate her, but I think Merkel is able to choose the less worse option even if it harms her party.

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France, US support Greece in debt battle: https://euobserver.com/political/127444

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France, US support Greece in debt battle: https://euobserver.com/political/127444

Just to balance this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/tsipras-damage-control-fails-to-budge-euro-officials-on-greece

"In the past two days, officials in Berlin, Paris and Madrid have rejected the possibility of a debt writedown as they held out the prospect of easier repayment terms, an offer that has been on the table since November 2012."

It's possible to (how do you say in English) kick the can down the road for 10 or 15 years, by just delaying reimbursement again and again. There is no need for a writedown because if the eurozone survives, debt mutualization will inevitably happen at some point and the problem of Greek debt will be solved that day.

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Agreement found between Greece and the rest of the eurozone. My (very limited) understanding is that Greece basically agreed to continue with the bailout program negotiated by the previous government, and got very little in return. It's only a short term agreement and the next "battle" will be about what's coming after the bailout program.

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The agreement is much more limited than you seem to think in my opinion. More details here: http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/greece-bends-eurozone-will-find-short-term-agreement/

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Greece pass anti-austerity bill: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/greece-pass-anti-austerity-bill-312603

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Syriza popularity is rising, so it looks like they suceeded to present it as a victory at home.

Talking of future negotiations, there are rumors about a 3rd bailout plan once the current one (extended until June) expires.