Greece General Discussion

[Bacon King]

I figured this would be a good thread to have. I've regained my interest in Greek politics recently, having found that doing a bit of research on the topic is an excellent way to procrastinate, so I can even make a big and informative first post!


Brief Intro: Greek Political Parties

ND: New Democracy, the center-right party that's in favor of austerity and the bailouts. Was a member of the old two-partyish system before everything went crazy. They're the main partner of the current coalition government.

PASOK: Panhellinic Socialist Movement, the center-left party that also supports austerity as a necessity, which has caused them to lose a lot of their supporters. They currently support the government and were the main opponents to ND before all these new parties showed up and PASOK imploded.

KKE: The Greek Communist Party, unreformed since the days of the civil war. They've been around for ages and are always in Parliament winning roughly the same share of the vote, but they're notoriously stubborn and have only entered a coalition once, for about a year, since the fall of the dictatorship.

SYRIZA: The Coalition of the Radical Left, the second largest party (or, technically, "party group", because they're a coalition of dozens of different parties and organizations) in Parliament and the most prominent opponents to austerity.

ANEL: Independent Greeks. A rightist anti-austerity party that stole a fair bit of votes from ND to enter parliament in 2012.

DIMAR: The Democratic Left. A small and new party that campaigned with a rather nuanced (some would say "vague") approach to the bailout and austerity. They joined the coalition government with PASOK and ND, ostensibly to provide leverage so that ND wouldn't try anything too extreme.

XA: The Golden Dawn. Some consider them Neo-Nazis, but some think they're just Nazis. Insane extremely rightist party that loves fascist symbolism and really hates immigrants, Germany, and everything else non-Greek.

The Greek Parliament has 300 seats. 250 seats are awarded proportionally to the nationwide popular vote (with a three percent threshold) while the other 50 seats are given as a "bonus" to the party that polls the highest. Because of this 50 seat bonus, first place is very important!


Division of Parliament

ND: 125 (129 were elected)
PASOK: 25 (33 were elected)
DIMAR: 16 (17 were elected)

total seats for government: 166 (was 179 after June elections)

SYRIZA: 71
ANEL: 20
XA: 18
KKE: 12

independents: 12 (4 former ND, 7 former PASOK, 1 former DIMAR)
RIKKSY: 1 (a former PASOK MP who started "Radical Movement of Social Democratic Alliance")


Most recent opinion polls

http://www.grreporter.info/en/syriza_first_party_alexis_tsipras_not_convincing_prime_minister/8215

VPRC Marc Pulse SYRIZA    31.5%    28.8%    26.0% ND 26.5% 26.4% 21.5% PASOK 5.0% 7.5% 6.5% DIMAR 5.5% 6.1% 4.0% ANEL 6.5% 6.9% 7.5% KKE 6.5% 5.9% 5.5% XA 12.5% 11.8% 13.5% other 6.0% 6.6% 6.0%

Yeah... that's a pollster consensus with Syriza first, ND second, and Golden Dawn third. For a sombering thought, note that Golden Dawn were significantly underpolled by everyone in both the May and June elections last year.


Recent news from Greece

Syriza is attempting to develop a more unified party structure so it can better appeal to voters and appear more capable of governing.

Samaras is talking about a cabinet reshuffle; he wants PASOK and DIMAR to become more involved in the cabinet but is also thinking about kicking out a couple of DIMAR's Ministers because they're flaky on austerity.

Syriza leader Tsipras predicts new elections will be held soon. I think I might tend to agree with him, given the rates of defection PASOK is seeing and DIMAR's lack of unity (three DIMAR members voted against the party on the austerity package, but unlike other party's dissenters they weren't kicked out).

[Bacon King]

I'll go ahead and cross-post this stuff here too, since that other thread was just weird.

So I got curious and ran the numbers on recent the recent polls I could find from Greece. Had no idea PASOK was polling so horribly or Golden Dawn doing so well; I haven't been following Greece lately at all. If an election was held today, this would be the number of seats per party in the Greek Parliament:

SYRIZA: 126 - 139
ND: 63 - 71
XA: 32 - 40
ANEL: 17 - 21
KKE: 16 - 21
PASOK: 14 - 20
DIMAR: 9 - 16

PASOK would enter a coalition looong before KKE does. Or ANEL for that matter. Especially if it's only a rump-PASOK left that's desperate to stay relevant. Of course, some polls' results have a majority for Syriza + DIMAR alone, but who knows what'll happen by the time the eventual elections occur.

IIRC, Syriza is ahead of ND by 3 to 9 points, depending on the poll. Keep in mind Greek pollsters try to predict how undecideds will break in their top line numbers, so most methodology differences between pollsters will be in those assumptions.

What happens in the event of a tie?

The Greek Constitution requires that if a vote is tied, then a second vote is held on the same thing, and if the second vote is also a tie, then it fails. Also, motions of confidence explicitly require an absolute majority: 150 votes or less and the government falls, even if some MP's vote Present.

[Bacon King]

Bump

Samaras just had a confidence motion pass to reinforce party discipline ahead of a bunch of difficult austerity votes. The confidence motion had 155 votes, which notably is less than the 180 they will need to prevent new elections next spring

[Bacon King]

Is there anybody who could get 180 votes? I don't see any,way to avoid early elections.

[Bacon King]

The background is that the Euro-zone countries have just given Greece a 2 month extension on their  loan package and the government says they don't want to risk uncertainty. They claim the move will:

"prevent the opposition from undermining Greece's economy and directing messages of political uncertainty to financial markets"

I can't see a scenario where the opposition (SYRIZA) doesn't win a plurality. I also can't see them forming a government. They won't win a majority of seats, and none of the other parties are viable coalition partners. SYRIZA won't work with PASOK, the party of austerity, and of course KKE won't doesn't even acknowledge SYRIZA. The only right-wing party that might enter a coalition with SYRIZA is ANEL, but that would be a very unstable and short-lived government.

With that in mind, I have to wonder what is going to happen with this extension and how the markets will react over the next two months. I'm not very optimistic.

PASOK wouldn't enter a coalition with SYRIZA, but I'm sure the Democratic Party would consider it!

Non-sarcastically there's also the possibility of Potami as a junior partner

[Bacon King]

If you're unaware, KKE is the last remaining old-style Stalinist party in Europe. The median age of its Politburo is in the 70s. The leadership have repeatedly denounced SYRIZA as revisionists and splitters (SYRIZA left KKE in the 90s to form a new party) and refuses to work with them in any way. A few years ago, when KKE joined with the police to beat the hell out of protestors, a lot of the people they were beating on were SYRIZA members and voters. The two do not play nice.

Those clashes took place in 2009, when ND and PASOK were still the largest two parties and no one had any idea who, if anyone, was going to break the two party system. KKE and SYRIZA were both minor parties competing with each other to see who would lead the left. That battle is over now, SYRIZA won and the dynamic is now changed.

This is currently an article on the front page of KKE's English website:

http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/SYRIZA-the-left-reserve-force-of-capitalism/

KKE will never, under any remotely realistic circumstance, join a coalition with SYRIZA.

[Bacon King]

It will be so... amusing... if the government remains in power due to defections from Golden Dawn.

[Bacon King]

I wonder whether a new Paprendeau outfit could hoover up the remaining PASOK people. I'd imagine he could make a decent crack at To Potami as well. (i.e. the Very Serious moderates who find the leftists unthinkable but Samaras unpalatable).

Good news for everyone: Golden Dawn has suffered a fall in the polls recently, below the resurgent To Potami and drawing parallel with both the commies and The Most Democratic Olive PASOK Tree (or whatever it's going to be called come next election)

XA falling into fourth place is a very good thing. The Greek Constitution requires the President to give the second place party a mandate to try and form a government if the largest party can't do it, and then give that mandate to the third largest if they can't do it. It would be an absolutely terrible political situation if both SYRIZA and ND fail to form a coalition with XA in third.

Just imagine- the two big parties fail, then a bunch of literal Nazis get some semblance of official recognition and three full days of maximum publicity right before a new election is inevitably called.

[Bacon King]

RIP Samaras Government

[Bacon King]

relevant bit of Greek Constitution:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Bacon King]

Haha wow so they're literally already undermining the Tsipras Government before it begins

[Bacon King]

^ that poll would give a parliament as follows (take it with a grain of salt though because the undecideds aren't factored in):

SYRIZA: 143
ND: 81
XA: 18
KKE: 17
Potami: 17
PASOK: 15
ANEL: 9

[Bacon King]

!!!

Breaking news:

ANEL backbencher Pavlos Chaikalos announced on a Greek morning TV show that someone repeatedly offered him bribes to vote for Dimas and that he recorded one of the attempts and has already testified to prosecutors about it. He was allegedly offered €700,000 in cash, €2 or €3 million in professional contracts, and the full settlement of his current bank loans. The TV host said he was aware of another MP who had privately made similar allegations.

[Bacon King]

!!!

Breaking news:

ANEL backbencher Pavlos Chaikalos announced on a Greek morning TV show that someone repeatedly offered him bribes to vote for Dimas and that he recorded one of the attempts and has already testified to prosecutors about it. He was allegedly offered €700,000 in cash, €2 or €3 million in professional contracts, and the full settlement of his current bank loans. The TV host said he was aware of another MP who had privately made similar allegations.

Don't twist your panties in a knot B.K.
Chaikalis is a well-known comedian and real-life buffoon who makes Pepe Grillo look like the second coming of Winston Churchill. I'll be extremely surprised is this whole affair produces even a whiff of serious evidence.   

The prosecutor's office has confirmed that Chiakalis did testify and provided them with a copy of the recording, and he's already named one "George Apostolopoulos" as the middle-man who directly offered the bribes in the recording. Does Greece have laws against "false reporting of a crime" and/or slander laws that would (or, I guess, should) have prevented Chiakalis from pulling this stunt if it was a complete fabrication?

At any rate, whether this is true or not, ANEL is milking it for all it's worth, presumably in a desperate attempt to stay relevant enough to pass the electoral threshold:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Bacon King]

Ok so apparently Apostopolous testified something to the effect of 'yes everything that was recorded was true and accurate but I was just baiting HIM to see if he could be bribed, because I don't trust him and I wanted to catch him, and this was all on my own so nobody else knew about it'

IMO either an actual attempted bribery took place, Chaikalis is a masterful troll who planned this all out with Apostolopolous and others to create the most electoral turmoil without technically committing any crimes they could be caught with. Probably relevant that Apostopolous used to work for ND then ANEL and now a bank- he's in a position to be the middle man for a bribe or the perfect collaborator for a ruse, but it's ridiculous to take his own story at face value

Also I really wish there were better English language websites doe greek news

[Bacon King]

DIMAR merging with SYRIZA would not be surprising at all- they are splitters from not only SYRIZA but also from the same constituent party of SYRIZA that Tsipras himself was from. The leader of DIMAR spent a year as SYRIZA's Parliamentary spokesman, serving alongside Tsipras as the party's parliamentary leader. They go way back.

[Bacon King]

Athens Stock Exchange in freefall

[Bacon King]

Greece will be using the same system as in previous elections, correct? 250 seats distributed proportionally for parties passing a 3% threshold, and then 50 seats as a bonus for the top party just because?

Yes, that's correct

[Bacon King]

Bumping this since the elections are over.

ANEL will be in a coalition with SYRIZA or at least offer co fidence. Potami and KKE TBD.

Deputy PM who will be responsible for Eurozone negotiations is reported to be this guy: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giannis_Dragasakis

[Bacon King]

Tsipras will be at the Presidential Palace at 3:30 PM local time (2 hours, 10 minutes from now) to officially announce cabinet and take office as PM

[Bacon King]

Tsipras's first act as Prime Minister: laying a wreath at a memorial where Nazis killed 200 Greeks

I'M SURE THIS IS NOT SYMBOLIC AT ALL

[Bacon King]

The new government announced some measures today, but didn't see anything about its income tax hike to 75% on incomes beyond 500k euros.  Has it said anything about this yet?

That proposal was in their May 2012 platform and they have not mentioned it since. There was zero mention of tax increases in the platform they ran on in 2015

[Bacon King]

The new government announced some measures today, but didn't see anything about its income tax hike to 75% on incomes beyond 500k euros.  Has it said anything about this yet?

That proposal was in their May 2012 platform and they have not mentioned it since. There was zero mention of tax increases in the platform they ran on in 2015

Well, unless they raise SOME taxes, how are they going to fund their spending - especially, as they are refusing to sell things off.

Honestly, if I were them, I would sell Western Thrace to the Turks. Erdogan would pay a fortune

Here's their 2015 platform:
http://links.org.au/node/4209

It's revenue neutral, with €12 billion from increased revenue, mostly to be earned from encouraging/coercing compliance with existing tax laws and the related debts that Greeks already owe

[Bacon King]

Tsipras appointed as his External Affairs Minister a well-known Putin admirer with ties to the infamous Aleksandr Dugin.
Splendid.

he isn't rocking the boat with EU sanctions against Russia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/world/europe/european-union-russia-sanctions-greece.html?_r=0

[Bacon King]

A narcissist to the bitter end:

Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.

I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum.

And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.

We of the Left know how to act collectively with no care for the privileges of office. I shall support fully Prime Minister Tsipras, the new Minister of Finance, and our government.

The superhuman effort to honour the brave people of Greece, and the famous OXI (NO) that they granted to democrats the world over, is just beginning.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

The gridlock has been all about me! The creditors hate me and now I have valiantly decided to offer my resignation so that Greece may live. No word btw on his promise of a deal on Monday and the reopening of banks the following day.

is this game theory