Greece General Discussion

[politicus]

Just so everyone's up-to-date with everyone's favourite joke party, PASOK are renaming themselves the Democratic Party.

Oh, the irony.. 

I think the US Democrats should rename themselves PASOK, that would be fitting.

[politicus]

I don't think it really deserves a separate thread on the IE board, because it's just the parliament voting, but the Greeks have accelerated their presidential election to December 17 (even if the term of current president Karolos Papoulias doesn't expire before early March). They need 180 votes to elect one and if they can't it will lead to a parliamentary election.

Samaras will make his choice of candidate known tomorrow. If they fail on the 17th there will be a second poll on December 22 and a third and final round on December 27. If they don't get a candidate elected in the third round Samaras will be forced to call an election, which according to Greek political journalists will be either January 25 or February 1.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2014/dec/08/japans-recession-deeper-german-industrial-output-live

[politicus]

The background is that the Euro-zone countries have just given Greece a 2 month extension on their  loan package and the government says they don't want to risk uncertainty. They claim the move will:

"prevent the opposition from undermining Greece's economy and directing messages of political uncertainty to financial markets"

[politicus]

Is there anybody who could get 180 votes? I don't see any,way to avoid early elections.

I suppose they could agree on a well respected non-political figure (artist, scientist etc.) if they really wanted to, but I doubt there is any will to think out of the box.

Not that it matter much, but according to Wiki it's actually 200 in both the first and second ballot, and then declines to 180 on the third ballot.

[politicus]

If SYRIZA, PASOK, and the KKE have a majority, they will form a government

SYRIZA isn't going to reject PASOK if it makes the difference between forming or not forming a government, they're not stupid.

Same with the KKE. You can't use their past behavior to predict how they would react in this situation because there's never been a situation like this in the past.

KKE can best be understood as a political sect where a group of people cling to the anachronistic beliefs of their forefathers long after they have died out in the rest of the world. An American parallel would be if Father Coughliln's National Union for Social Justice had survived WW2 and still had dedicated supporters, who kept reelecting a dozen Congressmen time and again.

[politicus]

The latest poll:

Syriza 32.5    
ND 26.5    
Pasok 8.0
Anel   4.0    
Golden Dawn 7.5    
Dimar 1.0    
KKE 6.5    
Potami 7.5    
Others 6.0

Syriza/Potami are at 40% alone (and have a solid majority with Pasok). KKE are irrelevant at the moment. ANEL is quite close to the 3% threshold and actually under (2.6%) in the second latest poll, if they don't get in things will be slightly easier.   

With the 50 seat bonus 40% will be enough to a majority.

[politicus]

If PASOK doesn't enter into a coalition with SYRIZA, it will probably split into two parties over the issue.

There are already some splinter parties (Agreement for the New Greece, Dynamic Greece and the New Reformers), which were part of Elia for the Euro-elections.

40% to Syriza/Potami with about 7% wasted votes will give them 108 seats, if you add the bonus that's a majority of 158. If ANEL is out this will be more solid. There is a good chance Pasok will be irrelevant.

Metron even had Syriza/Potami at 43.7% combined on December 1-3.

[politicus]

I was thinking a more major split between Papandreou and Venizelos.

If they are not needed and Syriza doesn't want them there would be no basis for a split.

[politicus]

Ah, I had forgotten about The River. Isn't that a lot of ex-Potami and DIMAR people? I guess it's a possibility. Though I have my doubts that any of the "Serious People" parties want to attach themselves to SYRIZA. And honestly, I can see a number of people within SYRIZA not wanting to form a government. They are at the zenith of their power now. Once they become the government, they have to make a decision which will either cost them most of their votes or plunge Greece down a very scary path.

The "serious people" may not have a choice if the polls don't change their way during the campaign. The poll I showed  gives Syriza 137 seats and it's not even their best recent poll (that's 34.5%) All polls give a majority to Syriza/KKE/Golden Dawn combined making the serious people a minority and they even give Syriza/KKE a majority making the non-socialists a minority.

[politicus]

Regarding a Syriza majority they get 150 seats for 36% with 10% wasted votes, that is unlikely, but actually not completely unrealistic if ANEL drops below the threshold, as they have been in some polls.
 

[politicus]

I can't imagine how they wouldn't be needed. It would be risky to depend on The River alone.

I also think it's odd you people keep talking about SYRIZA "not wanting" PASOK. They don't want PASOK because they've been promoting austerity. If PASOK joined a SYRIZA led coalition, they wouldn't keep promoting austerity, at least not nearly as much as they do now.

SYRIZA doesn't like PASOK because of PASOK's policies. If PASOK's policies changed, SYRIZA would have no reason to keep disliking them.

PASOK carries an awful lot of bagage in the form of corruption, nepotism and clientilistic networks, It might very well be more attractive for Syriza to avoid them if possible.

[politicus]

Yes, this is really stupid. A respected non-political figure would be the obvious move.

[politicus]

Wall Street Lawyer 1968-69
Consultant in the World Bank 1969-1975
Deputy Governor of the Hellenic Industrial Development Bank 1975-77
Deputy Minister of Economic Coordination (28 November 1977 – 10 May 1980)
Minister of Trade (10 May – 11 October 1980)
Minister without Portfolio (11 October 1980 – 21 October 1981)
Parliamentary spokesperson for the New Democracy party (October 1985 – June 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (2 July – 12 October 1989)
Minister of Agriculture (23 November 1989 – 13 February 1990)
Minister of Industry, Energy and Technology (11 April 1990 – 29 July 1991)
Secretary-General of New Democracy (1995–2000)
Senior Member of the Political Analysis Steering Committee of New Democracy (2000–2003)
Head of the New Democracy delegation to the Council of Europe (2000–2004)
EU Commissioner for the Environment (2004-2010)
Deputy Leader for ND (2010-present)
November 2011 to 17 May 2012 also Minister of Foreign Affairs

Talk about establishment,,, and 73 years old.

[politicus]

It looks like the government may make it after all. They got 155 seats, there are 24 Indies to court and while the leadership of ANEL and DIMAR are against it a number of their MPs are willing to break party discipline on the issue. There is a petition going round in parliament to support electing a president and apparently 172-176 MPs are behind it now, so the government only needs an additional 4-8 votes, that looks doable, but it will be close.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-greece-elect-a-new-president-of-the-republic

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/will-parliament-elect-dimas-for-president

The breakdown among Indies should be:

13 Yes
8 No
3 Maybe

So 168 + 4 deserters + 4 maybes (3 Indies and 1 potential deserter)

Also: "The final wild card is Golden Dawn. While it is widely assumed that the neo-fascist party will vote in lock step against the government defections from the party cannot be ruled out."

The rounds are now set to December 17, 23 and 29. So six days between each instead of the minimum five.

The opposition:

SYRIZA 71
KKE 12
Golden Dawn 16
ANEL 12
Democratic Left 10

So 121 combined.

EDIT: The petition includes a vague promise of early elections somewhere in 2015 (after completing the negotiations with the Troika and officially ending the Memorandum) and a commitment to constitutional reform incl. directly elected president (needs to be approved by two successive parliaments, so important to get it through in this one).

[politicus]

Papandreou has made a public statement about the political situation that is so critical of the government that political observers in Greece are now certain he will form a separate party if there is going to be an election.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-to-launch-new-party

“The unprecedented absence of the Government and the Opposition from the front of dealing with the deeper causes which led us to the crisis and to the verge of a national tragedy, both instead hiding behind anti-memorandum slogans.”

Also argues the government (and Syriza) does not "take on the entrenched clientelist interests which are the true source of the troubles rocking Greece" and ignores the "true dilemma" which concerns the transition to a "post-clientelist" Greece.

Even if Papandreou has been critical of the government for a long time it is the impression that sending out such an extremely critical and harsh statement totally denouncing the government his own party is a part of as a complete failure and doing it at this critical time means he has now decided to split from Pasok/Pasok - Democratic Alignment/the Democrats or whatever is the official name of the party at the moment

[politicus]

Some Indies considered likely or certain yes-voters have declared they will vote against Dimas and this has  led to DIMAR and ANEL closing ranks and supporting their leaderships no position. Observers now estimate that 132 will either vote no or not show up. Syriza officials claim there will be 137 no/abstain votes. Anyway, it looks like the tide has changed.

[politicus]

ANEL boss Panos Kammenos is under fire after he claimed on TV that Jewish institutions don't pay taxes.. lol ANEL.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/opposition-leader-claims-that-jews-dont-pay-taxes

And the head of the Korydallos prison parole board has allowed the seven detained Golden Dawn MPs to vote for President. How very democratic...

[politicus]

The expected breakdown of Indies before tonight vote:

7 "Yes":

Katerina Markou, Spiros Lykoudis, Panagiotis Melas, Grigoris Psarianos. Christos Aidonis, Kostas Giovanopoulos, Giorgos Davris.

10 "Present=No":

Odysseas Voudouris, Theodoros Parastatidis, Chrysoula Giatagana, Petros Tatsopoulos, Mimis Androulakis, Rachel Makri, Markos Bolaris, Paris Moutsinas, Vassilis Kapernaros, Theodora Tzakri.

7 undecided or mixed:.

Vassilis Oikonomou: Will vote present tonight, but says this will not predetermine his stance in the next two votes.

Mika Iatridi has said she will not change her vote throughout the process. She said she most probably will go for “present”.

Giorgos Kasapidis and Yannis Kourakos hasn't said anything,

Byron Polymerase has said he "would become the 180th if there were 179", but unclear what he will do tonight.

Former Golden Dawn members Chrysovalantis Alexopoulos and Stathis Boukouras are expected to go for 'yes', but haven't declared.

[politicus]

Dimas only got 160, 135 No (officially present). Big dissapointment for the government. Ministers had unofficially said anything below 160 was a disaster.

[politicus]

It will be interesting to see the breakdown. They claimed seven certain indies. Either some of their own people are among the five that didn't show up (unlikely) or they got even less than that.

[politicus]

Among the seven "certain" Yes voters Former ANEL MPs, Panagiotis Melas voted no, so down to max six.

Former ANEL Yiannis Kourakos, who was considered fairly safe Yes also voted no.

Among the five absent were former Golden Dawn MP Boukouras and former ANEL MP Giovanopoulos (one of the "seven certain"), but the three others are unconfirmed,

[politicus]

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

The government knew right from the start that only the third round was winnable. They never counted on winning the first two. They are just tests.

[politicus]

I saw that the threshold is 200 in the 1st and 2nd round, and 180 only in the 3rd round. The second round does not seem winnable, but the government may try to field a more consensual candidate in the 3rd round.

There is no mentioning in the press that they might consider it, but then again this was a much worse result than expected, so maybe.

Right from the start I thought bringing a well respected artist or scientist in play would have been the smart move, but the Greeks have no tradition for non-political Presidents. Dimas is on the ND left and has done a lot for the environment as EU-commissioner. I think they considered him as someone acceptable to the left, while still not problematic for right wing Indies. They have the problem that they need support from both left wingers and right wingers, so not easy to find someone better unless they go non-political.

There is also the hypothesis among some "experts" that they are gambling on a "parenthesis of the left". Handing power to a Syriza led government which will then crash and be forced to call an election, which will then give a solid majority to the old parties. Get the threat out of the way, so to speak. Dunno if thats realistic, but it would explain some things.

[politicus]

relevant bit of Greek Constitution:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, it will take (too much) time to get organized and actually be able to form a working Syriza-government if they win.

"Let us make a very realistic working assumption: that the current parliament on the 29th of December will be unable to elect a President of the Republic. As such, within 10 days parliament will be dissolved and elections announced – within 30 days – which will be won by the party which holds a steady lead in the polls over recent months: that is, SYRIZA.

At a first glance, even with an absolute majority the new government will first have to elect a President of the Republic and subsequently seek a vote of confidence from parliament. That means that the soonest we will have a government will be the 15th of February!

To put it simply, the new government will have about 2 weeks to come to an understanding with the Troika to conclude – if it hasn’t happened until then – the review of the bailout program and reach an agreement over a precautionary credit line, or to negotiate its own program as Alexis Tsipras has committed to doing, in the event that SYRIZA wins the elections.

One question is immediately raised: Why did Samaras and Venizelos - despite the pressure of the lenders to do so - not request a six month extension, or at least a three month extension of the program in order for the new government to have time to negotiate?"

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-unpatriotic-politics-of-the-coalition-government

[politicus]

New poll shows the gap closing. Still, its conducted on 14-17. We are still waiting for one polled after the vote. Hopefully they do one today and tomorrow. ANEL is really on the edge now.

SYRIZA 28.5% 
New Democracy 24.9%
PASOK 4.8%.
Golden Dawn 5.8%
Communists  5.4%
The River 5.4%
Independent Greeks 3%
Undecided 7.8%

56.1% prefer a new president elected by parliament, while only 40.4% favour snap elections.