Most likely running mates for Hilary and Rubio?

[justfollowingtheelections]

In Rubio's case it would likely be someone of an elder statesman quality to balance out the lack of experience perception.

For Hillary, Yes it may be too soon for Castro but then again look at Obama's rise to fame. The Clinton's tend to keep a "list" of people who have wronged or pissed them off in the past. I doubt she would select someone who chose to endorse Obama over her early on in the 08 primaries. Unless she really truly thought she needed them to win. With that said I think she goes with someone quite a bit younger and energetic without overlooking the too wet behind the ears qualities.

This.

The Clintons are loyalists, and she would more than likely select someone who endorsed her over Obama in 2008. I don't think she would go with a Latino, seeing as how she was (and is) extremely popular with them in 2008 (I think she won them by a 2-to-1 margin over Obama). I say she would probably have to choose an African American because I'm sure several in the African American community will remember her as the one who dared to challenge the first African American candidate (how dare she do something like that!). Having said that, there weren't many prominent elected African Americans who supported her in 2008; the only ones I can think of (who still hold offices) are Maxine Waters, Emanuel Cleaver, Ron Dellums (Mayor of Oakland), Michael Nutter (Mayor of Philadelphia), Charlie Rangel (and I believe all of New York's black delegation - Gregory Meeks, Yvette Clarke and Edolphus Towns were for her as well), and Sheila Jackson Lee. I don't see any of these as VP material, though I do agree that she would more than likely choose one of her first candidacy's endorsers.

Cleaver probably gave the best speech at the DNC this year, and he was elected in a majority-white district in a swing state (I don't know if the district was always majority-white but it was this time).  The problem is that he's as old as Hilary, but he would be a good addition to her cabinet.

[Mister Mets]

Keeping in mind the possibility that the next Veep may not have been elected to office yet (see Richard Nixon, Spiro Agnew and Sarah Palin), or may not have risen to prominence yet (see Paul Ryan).

Hillary's qualifications are impressive enough that she doesn't need to make up for any shortcomings. And she can have her pick of middle-aged to old white guys. I don't think she'd choose a woman, or anyone from New York/ Arkansas.

The long list would include...
Mark Warner- Because of his combination of business/ executive and legislative experience, as well as his help in a crucial swing state.
Tim Kaine- Same reason. He's also slightly younger than Warner.
Charlie Crist- May help in Florida. Will allow Clinton to depict the Republicans as a group of crazy radicals.
Julian Castro- Can excite Latinos and younger voters. Executive of a city with a population greater than New Hampshire.
John Hickenlooper- Swing state Governor.
Martin O'Malley- Does no harm. Currently under Fifty.
Brian Schweitzer- Politically talented.
Jon Tester- Survived two close elections. Appeal to rural white voters.
Gavin Newsom- The most prominent white guy under fifty (in 2016) the Democrats seem to have. Possible Governor of California.

So why are you excluding Gov. Deval Patrick? 

I'm not sure I'm excluding Patrick. The long list would be expected to include dozens of people. I just wouldn't rate him as highly as the others.

I also didn't mention Utah Congressman Jim Matheson, Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, possible Virginia Governor Terry Mcauliffe, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown or possible New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, all of whom have at least a trivial chance of being Hillary's running mate. There just isn't enough space or time to consider everyone.

Deval Patrick is a plausible presidential candidate, so it's possible that he'll do really well in primaries, and impress primary voters/ the Clinton campaign enough to make him the #2.

But there are a few knocks against him...

Massachusetts is not a swing state. And it's not located in a geographically useful place for a presidential campaign. Plus, Deval Patrick didn't even get 50% of the vote in 2010 when he was up for reelection.

Deval Patrick was an early endorser of Obama in in 2008. So Hillary may bear a grudge.

After two terms of the first African-American President, there isn't tremendous benefit to picking an African-American running mate. The bigger milestone had already been reached. It may help with turnout, but any change is likely to be negligible. Hillary would already have the first African-American President as a campaign surrogate. And she will likely have impressed his fans with her service in his administration.

Deval Patrick will be 60 in 2016. So this would be a presidential ticket with a combined age of 128.

As a former Governor, Patrick won't really be able to help in Washington DC. He doesn't really have connections there. It's worth noting that since 1944, 13 out of 15 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominees have been Senators. The exceptions were Sergent Shriver, the Brother-in-Law of a former President (and also of a sitting Senator) who replaced Senator Eagleton, and Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro.

[Blue3]

Only governors or young senators need a VP with "Washington experience." She doesn't need a VP for that because she's already got it. Already has foreign policy experience too. If she lacks anything, it's governing experience (though I think managing the State Department is definitely big executive experience, and she's also married to a former President/Governor). So she gets a A- in that area, unlike A+'s in the other 2 areas.

Biden wasn't from a swing state either. Neither was Palin. Or Lieberman. Or Cheney. (Edwards and Ryan were, and they lost their home states, not that close in either one). Home state really doesn't matter when it comes to VP selection.

Picking Deval Patrick would effectively marry her coalition to the Obama coalition, since Deval Patrick was such an early supporter, and such a good defender at the 2012 DNC convention. As well as help African-American turnout.  There's no other VP candidate that would be as good at preserving the Obama coalition (in addition to Hillary forming her own coalition).

[BlueSwan]

It would be really interesting to see how Appalacia and the deep south votes if it is Clinton/Schweitzer against Rubio/Martinez or Rubio/Jindal. I'm sure a hell of a lot of voters in those areas are just gonna stay home. I'm confident that Clinton/Schweitzer would still clean up the black vote, but the hispanic vote might be close.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich's job approval numbers inching up in Ohio:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1822

If he ends up winning reelection, and has at least OK homestate favorability in 2016, then expect another round of Kasich veepstakes speculation in 2016.....especially since the other Ohioan (Portman) may very well recuse himself from the veepstakes in order to run for reelection in '16.

[Mister Mets]

This is more of a hypothetical, but any Democrat elected Governor of Michigan or Wisconsin might be on Hillary's shortlist, considering the appeal to Unions of the candidate who defeated Snyder or Walker.

Vincent Shaheen, the 2010 Democratic candidate for Governor in South Carolina, currently leads Nikki Haley in polls. If he wins, he'll likely be considered.

Only governors or young senators need a VP with "Washington experience." She doesn't need a VP for that because she's already got it. Already has foreign policy experience too. If she lacks anything, it's governing experience (though I think managing the State Department is definitely big executive experience, and she's also married to a former President/Governor). So she gets a A- in that area, unlike A+'s in the other 2 areas.

Biden wasn't from a swing state either. Neither was Palin. Or Lieberman. Or Cheney. (Edwards and Ryan were, and they lost their home states, not that close in either one). Home state really doesn't matter when it comes to VP selection.

Picking Deval Patrick would effectively marry her coalition to the Obama coalition, since Deval Patrick was such an early supporter, and such a good defender at the 2012 DNC convention. As well as help African-American turnout.  There's no other VP candidate that would be as good at preserving the Obama coalition (in addition to Hillary forming her own coalition).

Hillary could still benefit from someone on her ticket with a deep familiarity with Washington/ Domestic policy, the Democratic version of Rob Portman. She does't quite have that. In the Clinton administration, she was essentially a Senior adviser to the President. Then she spent a few years as a rock star Senator, before she started running for President herself. And now she's spent four years as the country's top diplomat.

The problem with Patrick as a likely running mate isn't one thing. It's a combination of several factors. He's not young/ fresh, won't help her in Washington, won't help her in a politically useful region/ state, and doesn't seem to be a particularly gifted politician (he was reelected with less than 50% in one of the most liberal states in the country).

He does help with the voters who preferred Obama to Hillary, and his resume is certainly adequate. But I would imagine that she would already have the support of the Obama coalition, due to her work in his administration.

So I doubt that Deval Patrick is in the top ten. This is subject to change in the next four years. Perhaps he'll come up with some truly impressive policies in his last two years in office.

[Blue3]

She was a Senator for 6 years before declaring her candidacy, and ended up serving 8 years as Senator, winning two elections there. She made lots of connections and is well-respected by both sides of the aisle in the Senate.

Deval Patrick is a fresh face to the national stage, as well as someone who could help African-American turnout.

Who's in your top 10 for Hillary?

[milhouse24]

I don't think Deval is as popular with Hispanics as Obama. 

I think HIllary would go with Castro.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think HIllary would go with Castro.

Absolutely. She will need to balance the ticket with a moderate.

[Frodo]

I think HIllary would go with Castro.

Absolutely. She will need to balance the ticket with a moderate.

Heh -that would be another point against Julian...his unfortunate last name. 

No wonder milhouse wants her to pick the guy, among other (malicious) reasons. 

[© tweed]

Heh -that would be another point against Julian...his unfortunate last name.  

Fidel is one of the greatest men of the 20th Century, if not the greatest.  Lenin and Trotsky (taken as a pair, much like Fidel and Che as a pair) may beat him.  an unfavorable name did not prevent Obama from winning by 7.5%.

[Frodo]

Heh -that would be another point against Julian...his unfortunate last name.  

Fidel is one of the greatest men of the 20th Century, if not the greatest.  Lenin and Trotsky (taken as a pair, much like Fidel and Che as a pair) may beat him.  an unfavorable name did not prevent Obama from winning by 7.5%.

K.....

Whenever you're done with your communist schtick, let me know. 

[Mister Mets]

She was a Senator for 6 years before declaring her candidacy, and ended up serving 8 years as Senator, winning two elections there. She made lots of connections and is well-respected by both sides of the aisle in the Senate.

Deval Patrick is a fresh face to the national stage, as well as someone who could help African-American turnout.

Who's in your top 10 for Hillary?

Well, I mentioned Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Charlie Crist, Julian Castro, John Hickenlooper, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Jon Tester and Gavin Newsom.

So, I only need one more.

But a ridiculously early top dozen could include...
Chris Murphy- Will be the youngest Senator.
Martin Heinrich- Young Senator-Elect from New Mexico.
Xavier Bercerra- In the 2008 primary, Hillary had some conflicts with the Democratic House leadership, so it could make sense to pick a guy they like as her running mate. He would help with dealings with Washington, as Paul Ryan was supposed to help Romney. And he's Hispanic.

[socaldem]

1. Gov. John Lynch, D-NH
Pros: Governor of a swing state who maintained record popularity. He has business experience and a solid, technocratic record. He is a safe choice whose centrist-progressive sensibilities fit well with Clintonism and would appeal to the suburban swing vote. He stayed neutral in 2008 until Obama had clinched the nomination. He is a no-drama technocrat.
Cons: Boring (would that be bad?); he's currently 60 and unlikely to run for Prez.

2. Gov. Martin O'Malley, D-MD
Pros: A rising star and under 50, he is a progressive darling who would be an aggressive and charismatic campaigner. He was an early Hillary supporter in 2007 and could potentially succeed HRC. His wife is a judge and has a history in politics, so they would be a power couple.
Cons: He's a former big-city mayor from the NE and is somewhat popular but not overwhelmingly so. By picking him, Hillary would be signalling a successor--she may not wish to do that.

3. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-OH
Pros: Ohio; demographic appeal to rust-belt union voters and with HRC could make a dent in traditionally dem areas like PA, WV, etc., where Obama under-performed; waited until late to endorse Obama in 2008; his wife would also be a political asset on the campaign trail.
Cons: Wasn't always a supporter of Bill in congress and their would be tension with the top of the ticket on some labor/trade and social safety net issues. He's currently 60, though he certainly looks younger.

4. Ambasssador/Secretary/Governor Gary Locke, D-WA
Pros: He provides regional balance to the ticket and additional foreign policy experience. He's Asian-American. He supported Clinton and co-chaired her WA campaign and worked under her in the state department as China Ambassador.
Cons: Lacks charisma. No swing state help. More likely to be a Secretary of State pick in the new Clinton Admin.

5. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-FL
Pros: Young rising star in the party with national prominence. She is from Florida and has national prominence as DNC chief. She was an early supporter of Hillary in 2007.
Cons: Lacks support from progressives and has been criticized for how she has run the DNC. She is a regular on TV but hasn't always been effective...Is America ready for a double double-x ticket?

6. Gov. John Hickenlooper, D-CO
Pros: Popular governor of a swing state. He provides regional balance to the ticket and is known as a competent technocrat.
Cons: Recently divorced--HRC would not want any personal drama in a running mate; he is quirky and not a traditional or polished politician and may not be a good fit with the Clinton's campaign and governance style.

No chance:

Brian Schweitzer--He's very personable and funny, but he's also a bit of a gaffe machine because he's too honest...he would not tread lightly on sensitive issues and would have tension with HRC and the Clintonistas...there is no reason for them to make such a risky choice and he would be emboldened as VP and would be a headache for them throughout the term bc HRC would want control and he wouldn't be controllable...

Deval Patrick--He's too associated with Obama. He isn't particularly popular in liberal MA and would risk overshadowing Clinton because he is more charismatic and may be more of a darling to the progressives...it could cause problems during the campaign and during her term.

[sentinel]

Hillary wanted Tom Vilsack in 2008 as her VP. From what I remember of Game Change she was also considering Wesley Clark. Both moderates from mid western States in two different policy areas of expertise.

I think ultimately Clinton will pick someone that she likes. She doesn't have to pander to a certain demographic to win, she's strong enough to do it solo