LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Well, here we geaux!

This is for the 2014 Senate and House races in LA and NC.

Kay Hagan has formally announced that she'll be running again.

Likewise, Mary Landrieu says "Bring it on!"


NC


Senate
- Senator Kay Hagan (D- Guilford)
- NCGA Speaker Thom Tillis (R- Mecklenburg)
- Dr. Greg Brannon (R- Wake)
- Heather Grant (R- Wilkes)
- Rev. Mark Harris (R- Mecklenburg)
- Bill Flynn (R- Forsyth)
- David Waddell (C- Union)
- Ted Alexander (R- Cleveland)
- Edward Kryn (R- Johnston)
- Will Stewart (D- Pender)

CD1
G.K Butterfield (D- Wilson)
Other candidates:
Rod Hewlin (D- Durham)

CD2
Renee Ellmers (R- Harnett)
Other candidates:
- Frank Roche (R-Wake)
- Houston Barnes (D- Wake)
- Clay Aiken (D- Wake)
- Keith Crisco (D- Randolph)

CD3
Walter Jones (R- Pitt)
Other candidates:
- Jason Thigpen (D- New Hanover)
- Taylor Griffin (R- Craven)
- Marshall Adame (D-Onslow)

CD4
David Price (D- Orange)
Other candidates:

CD5
Virginia Foxx (R- Avery)
Other candidates:
- Philip Doyle (R- Forsyth)
CD6
Howard Coble (R- Guilford)
Retiring
Other candidates:
- Don Webb (R- Guilford)
- Laura Fjeld (D- Orange)
- Phil Berger Jr. (R- Rockingham)
- Dan Collison (R- Guilford)
- Mark Walker (R- Guilford)
- Zach Mathney (R- Guilford)
- Bruce VonCannon (R)
- Mike Causey (R- Guilford)
- Bruce Davis (D- Guilford)
- Ken Kopf (R- Jamestown)

CD7
Mike McIntyre (D- Robeson)
Retiring
Other candidates:
- David Rouzer (R- Johnston)
- Jonathan Barfield (D- New Hanover)
- Woody White (R- New Hanover)

CD8
Richard Hudson (R- Cabarrus)
Other candidates:
Antonio Blue (D- Richmond)

CD9
Robert Pittenger (R- Mecklenburg)
Other candidates:

CD10
Patrick McHenry (R- Gaston)
Other candidates:
- Terry Bellamy (D- Buncombe)
- Tate MacQueen (D- Buncombe)

CD11
Mark Meadows (R- Macon)
Other candidates:
- Keith Ruehl (D- Buncombe)

CD12
Malcolm Graham (D- Mecklenburg)
Alma Adams (D- Guilford)

CD13
George Holding (R- Wake)
Other candidates:
- Brenda Cleary (D- Wake)
- Theresa Corcoran (D- Wake)
 

LA



Senate
- Senator Mary Landrieu (D- Orleans)
- Bill Cassidy (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Rob Maness (R- St. Tammany)
- Paul Hollis (R- St. Tammany)

CD1
Steve Scalise (R- Jefferson)
Other candidates:

CD2
Cedric Richmond (D- Orleans)
Other candidates:

CD3
Charles Boustany (R- Lafayette)
Other candidates:

CD4
John Fleming (R- Webster)
Other candidates:

CD5
Vance McAllister (rep.-elect) (R-Ouachita)
Other candidates:

CD6
Bill Cassidy (R- East Baton Rouge)
Retiring to run for Senate
Other candidates:
- Paul Dietzel (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Quentin Anderson (D- East Baton Rouge)
- Rick Ward III (R-Iberville)
- Richard Lieberman (D- St. John the Baptist)
- Ryan Heck (R- East Baton Rouge) ?
- Norman Clark (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Dan Claitor (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Robert Bell (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Cassie Felder (R- East Baton Rouge)
- Trey Thomas (R- East Baton Rouge)

[Miles]

While the Senate field in NC is still murky, we do have a more solid picture in LA.

Bill Cassidy has taken some tangible steps to show that he's interested. Tea party firebrand Jeff Landry could also conceivably mount a bid; he got the shaft in redistricting which resulted in his loss last night.

We can scratch Steve Scalise's name from the list. He was just elected to lead the Republican Study Committee; its very likely that he'll stay in the House.

[politicallefty]

Wasn't the 2008 Louisiana Senate race fought under a closed primary instead of the jungle primary?

[Bacon King]

Wasn't the 2008 Louisiana Senate race fought under a closed primary instead of the jungle primary?

There was a brief period of time (2006-2008 ?) where House and Senate races didn't have a jungle primary, yeah.

[Miles]

Wasn't the 2008 Louisiana Senate race fought under a closed primary instead of the jungle primary?

There was a brief period of time (2006-2008 ?) where House and Senate races didn't have a jungle primary, yeah.

Yes, the jungle primary was just reintroduced in the 2012 cycle for federal races.

[Incipimus iterum]

Wasn't the 2008 Louisiana Senate race fought under a closed primary instead of the jungle primary?

There was a brief period of time (2006-2008 ?) where House and Senate races didn't have a jungle primary, yeah.

Yes, the jungle primary was just reintroduced in the 2012 cycle for federal races.

Any reason why they reintroduced the jungle primary?

[politicallefty]

I think the biggest question then is whether or not Landrieu can win outright in the primary or be forced to a run-off. A lot does depend on the national environment in 2014, but it seems to me like a run-off would be a lot riskier for Landrieu. Her best result was the one where she didn't have to run in the jungle primary.

[Talleyrand]

What's your take on Landrieu's chances this cycle, Miles?

[Miles]

Any reason why they reintroduced the jungle primary?

Neither party supported it, but Jindal brought it back anyway.

What's your take on Landrieu's chances this cycle, Miles?

Probably 50/50. Of course, this is one race where having Obama in the White House doesn't help; it really depends on how nationalized this race gets.

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't count Landrieu out, but I'd certainly say she starts either even or a slight underdog. She loses, LA's Republicanization is complete.

[Vern]

Miles, what do you think about Virginia Foxx running for Senate?

[Talleyrand]

Miles, what do you think about Virginia Foxx running for Senate?

I don't know what Miles thinks, but I'd guess Hagan would win by double digits in that case. She's basically the Sharron Angle/Michele Bachmann of NC.

[Miles]

Miles, what do you think about Virginia Foxx running for Senate?

I doubt it; she'd be an awful statewide candidate.

[Sol]

Miles, what do you think about Virginia Foxx running for Senate?

She'd do pretty badly. Even in her district, which is very republican, she consistently underperforms all the other Republicans. She'd get clobbered.

[Miles]

PPP was out with its first NC poll.

Her approval is 44/43.

Hagan- 45%
Ellmers- 39%

Hagan- 49%
Foxx- 39%

Hagan- 48%
Holding- 39%

Hagan- 48%
McHenry- 40%

Hagan- 45%
Myrick- 44%

Hagan- 48%
Tillis- 39%

Myrick seems to stick out here, but she's 71.

[Miles]

I guess the good news for Tillis out of this poll is that 66% don't know about him, despite all the controversial items he's advocated for in the Assembly. However, his favorables with those who have heard of him are 11/22.

[Indy Texas]

Mary Landrieu will probably win unless a formidable Republican is running (i.e. not a Tea Party joke like Landry). The oil and gas industry has invested heavily in her (she gets most of her money from Houston) and isn't going to throw her over for someone who's going to have zero seniority.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy is the consensus candidate in LA. The only lock would be Jindal, who has his sights on bigger things than a Senate seat.

[Simfan34]

Let's jhou?

[Holmes]

Let's jhou?

It's pronounced "go", you uncultured swine.

[minionofmidas]

Why Louisianans can't spell French, though, is beyond my ken. It really, really, really needs to be gaux rather than geaux, but it's too late to fix now.

[Holmes]

Is that so? I was under the impression that "eau" is used instead of "au" when it's at the end of the word (beau, seau, oiseau, chapeau...). Why they pluralized the word for no reason is beyond me, though.

[minionofmidas]

Is that so? I was under the impression that "eau" is used instead of "au" when it's at the end of the word (beau, seau, oiseau, chapeau...)

In all these words, the e has no effect on pronounciation and is there for reasons of historical linguistics, deriving from earlier bel, oisel etc. Gau vs Geau, on the other hand, does effect pronounciation.

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Because for some reason - no one is entirely sure why - Cajun surnames in -u (typically in -eau) were all pluralized at some point 200 years ago. "Geaux Tigers" etc is basically saying "Go Tigers (oh and btw we're from Louisiana and proud of it)".

[Holmes]

What would be the difference in pronunciation between Gau and Geau? I'd been pronouncing them the same.

[Miles]

Well, in any case, I always learned "Geaux." Despite being from New Orleans, I personally have zero French ancestry, so I never really questioned the linguistics behind it!