LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Roll Call on the NC Republican primary.

Not very surprising, but the Family Research Council PAC backs Harris.

 

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Roll Call looks at how some House Republicans running for Senate are downplaying their association with the leadership. Cassidy on flood insurance is a good example.

LA-06: H/T to Rogue. Roll Call has a write-up on the lax pace of this contest. I've been expecting news on him for the last week or so, but Garrett Graves, Jindal's ex-staffer is "close to entering." Dietzel's head start no doubt gave him a good boost.

NC-Sen: Hagan is filed for reelection today and is out with a web video. She's taking a more aggressive tone, as she's really starting to slam the Kochs.

NC-02: Renee Ellmers goes on Fox to discuss the Obama Administration's conspiracy to infiltrate the news networks...or something.

NC-07: Local paper's write-up on how Barfield plans to hold this 40% Obama seat. I don't think it was the most important aspect, but I'm pretty sure Barfield's entrance into the race in the first place factored into McIntyre's retirement decision.

[Miles]

NPR did a story on the LA Senate race. Its gotten quite a bit of attention mostly for this gem:

(the author is interviewing a group seniors in Lafourche Parish)

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: Republicans have landed another candidate in Lexington lawyer Jim Snyder. From his bio, he pretty much sounds like your typical perennial candidate:

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He became the 5th Republican to file for this race.

[Deus Naturae]

LA-AG: Jeff Landry is in.

[JacobNC]

I'm pretty sure Barfield's entrance into the race in the first place factored into McIntyre's retirement decision.

Yep, I'm still pissed at him for that.  And we've got another traitor running in NC-08 - Antonio Blue, who launched a write-in campaign against Kissell in 2012.  I hope they both get crushed.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: The National Review looks at Cassidy. Its one of those articles where, if you've been reading this thread, you pretty much already know everything.

LA-05: McAllister is sticking with his bipartisan approach to Obamacare. Between Duck Dynasty and Mardi Gras in DC, he's become something of a celebrity on the Hill.

LA-06: The Times-Picayune on Garrett Graves; he sees a "void" in Congress that he could fill. He's being pretty lax about a timetable:

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FWIW, because of the jungle primary, LA has the latest filing deadline in the country, August 22.

NC-Sen: When Hagan filed the other day, she held a press conference. She got some bad press for downplaying Obamacare; when asked about it, she basically re-iterated that she's sponsoring the 'keep-your plan' legislation. Republicans are making a big deal about it because she gave the same answer three times, even as reporters followed her into the parking lot. Fine. Bqhatevwr

NC-03 Can establishment Republicans finally beat Jones? Bush operatives are helping Griffin raise money.

NC-06: There was a forum for the Republicans candidates. Its a series of videos on Youtube; I linked to the video with all their opening statements. Needless to say, any of these guys would be a downgrade from ol' Coble

NC-07: I've been rambling a ton about this but geography is really critical here. This article brings up another facet of that; Rouzer already has name rec in the much more expensive Raleigh market:

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My partisan views aside, personally, I agree with the last paragraph. This district has been tucked into the southeastern corner of the state for at least the last century; to have a representative from suburban Raleigh is pretty sad.

[Miles]

LA-06: Garrett Garves is running. In terms of strength, he's on the upper-side of this field and will be the de-facto candidate in the coastal areas of the district. Still, I kinda throw myself into this category, too:

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NC-Sen: Tillis is open to phasing out the minimum wage entirely. PPP found that 56% in NC wanted it raised to $10.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Garnering more bad press, Brannon has failed to file an ethics disclosure form for his candidacy. Federal law requires that candidates who raise >$5K must file annual reports. Brannon crossed that threshold in early 2013.

NC-02: H/T Rogue. Rep. George Holding might file to run against Ellmers. He was encouraged to run by ex-Sen. Lauch Faircolth. He says Washington has grown too much on Ellmers and Akin could be a real contender in the general. He should worry Ellmers because of his ability to self-fund, and she isn't very entrenched in the district.

NC-03: 'Ya gotta respect Walter Jones. The big banks are lining up for Griffin the primary against him. While Griffin is busy learning about district, Jones has actually, ya know, done stuff for the people there.

LA-Sen: In what may be a minor issue, Team Mary is criticizing Cassidy for refusing to support the DISCLOSE Act. This would require candidates to disclose the names of  groups giving them >$10K. In this case, Democrats say Cassidy's opposition conveniently enables outfits like AFP.

More LA-Sen: Mary isn't on board with the $10 minimum wage that Reid is holding firm on. She cites the pushback from state businesses, particuarly the restaurant industry. As usual, she's handling this issue with more finesse than Pryor; while she's not a flat-out saying no, she's "generally supportive" of an increase but wants to find common ground with those who aren't. The folks at Daily Kos don't really take too kindly to that kinda thing.

Hagan, though, is supporting the $10 minimum wage.

LA-06: On the other end of the blogosphere, Garrett Graves is getting good marks from the Hayride (the foremost conservative LA politics site). On paper, yes, he brings a lot of stuff to the table. We'll have to wait and see how things go once he gets his campaign off the ground.

[windjammer]

Republicans trolling Mary Landrieu's facebook are extremely annoying. For the first time, I have posted because I wanted to praise her job. She's definitely the best senator right now! Louisiana is extremely lucky to have her!

[Miles]

^^^Yeah, I agree I kinda just like her posts without reading the comments!

Filing in NC closes tomorrow, so I'll try to have some sort of analysis by the weekend!

[Miles]

As filing in NC closed 30 minutes ago, I'm working on getting all the names together. When I'm not enjoying the Mardi Gras festivities of this weekend, I'll cobble together an analysis of the NC Congressional races.

On a quick note, Ellmers can breath easier now as reports are Holding's brother never showed up to file against her.

[free my dawg]

Noted nutjob and former NC-8 candidate Tim "Literally Jesus" D'Annunzio is running for Senate as a Libertarian.

Glorious news! As someone who's nervous about Hagan, a spoiler eases my mind quite a bit.

[Deus Naturae]

Aiken has officially filed.

Noted nutjob and former NC-8 candidate Tim "Literally Jesus" D'Annunzio is running for Senate as a Libertarian.

Glorious news! As someone who's nervous about Hagan, a spoiler eases my mind quite a bit.

Even if there was a chance he'd act as a spoiler, I doubt he'll win the primary.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He doesn't strike me as Libertarian material.

[Miles]

D'Annuzio is a perennial candidate, but I guess he could still pull some votes I'm the general. I remember seeing his signs when he was running for CD8 (back when the district had a bigger part of Charlotte). He ran in a totally different district in 2012, against Price (I guess he's from Fayetteville as that's the only place where those districts overlap).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hagen is the weakest incumbant running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rats are fleeing this sinking Titanic.

Link


Only one-third of North Carolina registered voters approve of Sen. Kay Hagan's job performance, her lowest rating in a year, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

Hagan was the only politician in the poll whose job approval rating dropped since November. President Barack Obama, Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr all achieved at least modest gains. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they disapproved of Hagan's job performance, her worst rating in a year.

So in your analogy, North Carolinians are rats? 

[Miles]

Guys, don't respond to krazen's posts here; Joe will eventually erase them

So in your analogy, North Carolinians are rats?  

Yes, he's very fond of comparing people he doesn't like to animals. Not very classy, but I guess its what he has to do to get attention.

[Miles]

As promised, a breakdown of the NC House races:

(the numbers are for Obama in '12 and Hagan in '08)

CD1
O: 71% H: 72%

Rep. G.K Butterfield should be fine. He has token opposition in the primary from Henderson educator Dan Whittacre. In the general Butterfield should beat either of the Republicans, Brent Shypulefski or Arthur Rich, with anywhere between 65-75% of the vote.

Outlook: Safe D

CD2
O: 41% H: 47%

Well, this might be the most entertaining race to watch. Renee Ellmers, driftwood from 2010, was very lucky to get a much friendlier seat after redistricting. However, much of it was (is) new to her and she’s received criticism from all corners for her weak ties to the district. Cary businessman Frank Roche is hoping he’ll be a more palatable alternative to her in the primary and has staked out a position to her right.

On the Democratic side, one of the most talked-about candidates of this cycle will be Clay Aiken. Despite the initial LOLz that come with a candidacy like this, the consensus seems to be that Aiken is actually becoming a serious candidate that Democrats can be proud of; he obviously has name rec, and is looking like a pretty aggressive fundraiser. As Fort Bragg is in the district, Aiken is making military/defense issues a centerpiece in his campaign, as he cited Ellmers support for the shutdown in his candidate announcement. The other candidate her is Keith Crisco, who served in the Perdue Administration. Aiken should win the primary, if nothing else, for his, er, ‘star power.’

Overall, I think Aiken can make this race competitive, but I don’t think it’s actually winnable in a year like this. Even in 2012, the Democrat who performed best in the statewide races (June Atkinson), still lost this district 49/51. Democrats here will surely be having a perfect day if they can get rid of Ellmers.

Outlook: Likely R

CD3
O: 41% H: 46%

Though he’s popular in his district, the mavericky Rep. Walter Jones has been a thorn in the side of the House leadership. Primary challenges against Jones has kinda fizzled away in recent cycles, but establishment Republicans may finally have a credible guy in Bush 43 staffer Taylor Griffin. Taylor is being helped by various Rove-types and has been courting the financial/banking industry, citing Jones’ support for renewing Glass-Steagall. Given his deep ties to the district, Jones should win, but Griffin shouldn’t fare as poorly as past challengers here.

Filing day brought a surprise in that Wilmington veteran Jason Thigpen didn’t file. Thigpen was the first candidate to announce for this race. He was a Republican who worked for McIntyre’s campaign in 2012; last summer though, he changed parties, citing the new voter ID bill. I’m not sure why he didn’t file, but oh well. This leaves Democrats with Marshall Adame as their default candidate. Adame ran for the nomination here in 2006, but lost.

Outlook: Safe R

CD4
O: 71% H: 71%

Republican Some Dude Paul Wright filed against Rep. David Price. Price is very safe in this Triangle-Fayetteville vote sink.
Outlook: Safe D

CD5
O: 40% H: 46%

Rep. Virginia Foxx has a primary challenge in Some Dude Philip Doyle. Doyle is running to her right; how exactly that’s possible, I’m not sure.
On the Democratic side, there is a quartet of Some Dudes, none of which I can find much on.

Outlook: Safe R

CD6
O: 41% H: 48%

After 30 years, the popular Rep. Howard Coble is calling it quits. As a bit of trivia, Coble holds the record for longest-serving Republican Congressman in NC’s history.

The Republican side has become a crowded 9-way affair. The frontrunner is Rockingham County AG Phil Beger Jr. Berger’s father, and namesake, is the Pro Temp of the NC Senate. As such, Berger is going to have a lot of structural support. Despite Berger’s name rec and funding advantages, a runoff remains a real possibility given the sheer number of candidates here; the two other candidates that look most viable are: 1) Businessman Bruce VonCannon. VonCannon is wealthy and can self-fund. The biggest strike against him is that he has roots in Randolph County…which was excised from CD6 when it was redrawn. 2) Pastor Mark Walker. He could become the socon candidate.

Being from Rockingham County, Berger has a geographic advantage; all the other candidates are from Guilford County (where Greensboro is).

Sadly though, none of these guys will ever be as cool as Coble.

Democrats actually have a good candidate in former UNC system executive Laura Fjeld.  Fjeld actually has better fundraising than Berger and support from EMILY’s list. Guilford County commish Bruce Davis is running. The consensus, though, is that he’ll be a speed bump for Fjeld.

Outlook: Likely R

CD7
O: 40% H: 48%

After routinely winning by plush margins in his old seat, Rep. Mike McIntyre decided to retire rather than run tough races for the rest of the decade in his new seat. McIntyre’s decision essentially hands this seat to the GOP. Another bit of trivia: NC-07 will be the final southern white Democratic seat to elect a Republican since Reconstruction.

The Republican’s 2012 nominee, David Rouzer, came just 654 votes short of beating McIntyre and is a strong favorite this time. Rouzer has a credible opponent in New Hanover commish Woody White. White may get a boost as he courts the tea party. Still, Rouzer has geography, funding and name rec working in his favor. Another Republican Chris Andrade, will likely be little more than a third wheel.

On the Democratic side, New Hanover commish Jonathan Barfield should get the nomination; he has token opposition from Some Dude Walter Martin. In fact, Barfield is so confident in his chances that he was even willing to run against McIntyre!

Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rouzer beat White by 15-20 and win the general with a similar, if not larger, margin.

Outlook: Safe R

CD8
O: 41% H: 46%

Freshmen Rep. Richard Hudson will be running against Democrat Antonio Blue in the general election. Last cycle, Blue ran as a write-in candidate and cost then-Rep. Larry Kissell about 4K votes.

Outlook: Safe R

CD9
O: 43% H: 46%

After a surprisingly weak showing in 2012, freshman Robert Pittenger will be unopposed in the general election. Pittenger has a (likely non-threatening) primary challenge in businessman Michael Steinberg. Steinberg seems to be running as a conservative populist. Pittenger is very wealthy, as he spent at least $2 million of his own money to win the nomination when this seat was open last cycle.

Outlook: Safe R

CD10
O: 41% H: 47%

Rep. Pat McHenry is working his way up in the House leadership. He has a token primary challenge in Richard Lynch. In the general, Democrat Tate MacQueen is probably better than a Some Dude, but is a pretty big underdog.

Outlook: Safe R

CD11
O: 38% H: 45%

Rep. Mark Meadows, one of the most vocal critics of Obamacare, is unopposed in the primary. Of the Democrats running, businessman Keith Ruehl is probably favored over Tom Hill. Redistricting made this the most Republican seat in the state, and Obama slumped noticeably here in 2012.
 
Outlook: Safe R

CD12
O: 79% H: 78%

Because Mel Watt was appointed to head the FHFA, this seat is vacant. In a somewhat controversial decision, Governor McCrory has scheduled the special election to run concurrently with the regular election. Ergo, there will be two elections on that ballot here for those in CD12: the first will be for the last 2-3 months of Watt’s term while the second will be for the full term expiring in 2017.

I’ll start with the Republicans. They’ve actually landed about as good a candidate they could have got in Charlotte area news anchor Vince Coakley. He’s been a regular on the local evening news channel for 18 years and brings name rec to the table. Even as someone who knew Coakley from that, I really had no idea how involved he was in conservative politics. In doing just a few YouTube searches, I found some kinda far out, Glenn Beck/conspiracy-type speeches he’s made. Given, as Romney barely broke 20%, its not like this seat would elect any Republican.

Which brings me to the Democratic side. Except for one Some Dude, the special election field is the same as the regular election. There are the main players for the nomination:

James ‘Smuggie’ Mitchell: Mitchell was a Charlotte City Councilman. He ran for mayor last year and, despite being an underdog, got the Charlotte Observer’s endorsement against his primary opponent (now Mayor Cannon) and made a good showing.

Malcolm Graham: 5-term State Senator Malcolm Graham was the first major name to get in, IIRC. Graham is from eastern Charlotte and served on the City Council in the early 2000s.  

Alma Adams: Longtime State Rep., and hat enthusiast, Alma Adams is the sole woman running in this race. Adams has rep’d a minority-heavy area of Greensboro since 1994. Planned Parenthood and EMILY’s List have endorsed her.

Marcus Brandon: If elected Brandon would be the first openly gay person to rep NC. He’s currently in his second term rep’ing a House district in Guilford County. Some Republicans like him because he’s supported their "school choice" (voucher) plans.

George Battle: Lawyer George Battle is trying to position himself as the most progressive Democrat. Though he lacks a legislative background, he’s currently General Counsel for Charlotte Mecklenburg schools.

Outlook: Safe D

CD13
O: 44% H: 47%

Freshman Rep. George Holding has kept a very low profile since taking office. A trio of Democrats have filed for the primary; its really hard to handicap, but I’d say nurse Brenda Cleary is favored (no, I wasn’t going for a pun there). This is a mildly Republican seat around Raleigh that’s slowly trending D.

Outlook: Safe R

For visual people like me:



Aside from a major development, the Republican's "fair and legal" map looks set to give them the desired 10-3. All blue seats are at least Likely R with CD7 going Republican, for the first time since 1871.

I think out buddy smoltcanov put it very well when he said NC has gone "Deep South" with its Congressional delegation.

Here's a the list of official candidates.

Also, here's a good overview of the Assembly races.

[Miles]

Landrieu and Hagan both voted for Adegbile's nomination. Obviously a move to keep black support.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Mike Lee endorses Brannon

[windjammer]

How toxic is Brannon?

[windjammer]

But Tillis is a joke too, isn't it?

[Miles]

But Tillis is a joke too, isn't it?

Tillis is looking a bit better. Needless to say, if Brannon can pull this off, Hagan will be in pretty good shape.