LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Don't ignore the BCBS ads about obamacare's taxes and fees raising the cost of healthcare, they could be a factor in current polling.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Tillis is spending $1 million on a new ad. He goes way back to his paper boy days to emphasize his business background.

NC-02: Keith Crisco (D) is out with his first ad, mostly a biographical spot.

NC-06: Don Webb, the fringiest of the Republicans, is touting endorsements from the Petty family (the NASCAR guys).

For today's fun NC factoid: While current SoS Elaine Marshall holds the record for tenure length, the first guy she beat to get that job was Richard Petty back in 1996. More recently, as Buzzfeed pointed out, Petty lost a badass hat contest to Coble himself.

NC-12: An LGBT news site highlights Marcus Brandon's campaign.

LA-06: The Advocate looks at businessman Craig McCulloch's campaign. In this race, McCulloch is probably near the top of the second tier.

Passings: NC Senate Minority Leader, Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) died today at age 67. Nesbitt was diagnosed with stomach cancer late last month. He served in the NCGA for 35 years and was well-respected on both sides. Without a doubt, he was one of western NC's finest statesmen.  

More LA-06: Happy St. Patrick's Day, ya'll:

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6 will definitely be fun. Especially if there are candidate forums.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Fresh off his endorsement from Mike Lee, the tea party seems to be coalescing around Brannon. Rand Paul will be headlining a fundraiser for Brannon at CPAC.

More NC-Sen: The, er, busy NCGA session last year brought the flow of lots of dark money. Some of that was used to fuund those first few ads featuring Tillis touting the work of the Assembly.

NC-02: Though Robert Holding (brother of the NC-13 rep) never filed for this seat, he nonetheless sounds very critical of Ellmers. He warns Republicans that Aiken could be a strong good candidate and shouldn't be underestimated.
 
NC-03: I don't think Jones is as vulnerable as some are making him out to be, but AFP is buying airtime to defend him. This is actually the first Republican primary that AFP is taking sides in this cycle, probably because they've been too busy lambasting Democrats.

LA-Sen: Tucked into this CPAC-centric campagn update, The Hill featurs Maness. Apparently his fundraising has been strong. Its not very specific, but even with a month left in Q1, he's ahead of his haul last quarter ($240K).

More LA/NC/AR-Sen: The American Action Network, the group run by ex-Sen. Norm Coleman, is running ads against vulnerable Dems. The focus is on, of all things, Obamacare.

WATN? Ex-Rep. Rodney Alexander recently spoke about his time in Congress. As common with most former members, he called for more bipartisanship and pointed to the challenges he faced as a (relatively) centrist member.

[free my dawg]

NC-Sen: Fresh off his endorsement from Mike Lee, the tea party seems to be coalescing around Brannon. Rand Paul will be headlining a fundraiser for Brannon at CPAC.

NC-03: I don't think Jones is as vulnerable as some are making him out to be, but AFP is buying airtime to defend him. This is actually the first Republican primary that AFP taking sides in this cycle, probably because they've been too busy lambasting Democrats.

Glorious news!

[Miles]

LA-Sen: If you're Maness, no matter how 'principled' your reasoning is on this, its still makes for a bad headline: "Senate candidate Rob Maness says he would have voted against Hurricane Katrina aid package."

More LA-Sen: Though the ACA is weighing down Democrats, running on the more popular Medicaid expansion may be a good strategy. Landrieu has certainly embraced it. As it basically has zero chance of happening in LA (Jindal is, 'ya know, running for President), Republicans really won't be able to take the issue off the table for her. The case study of LA-05 should encourage Medicaid expansion advocates, too.

NC-Sen: After kicking off this campaign season in KY, Bill Clinton could also give Hagan a nice boost. No word on an official date or event...yet

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Harris is touting endorsements from a trio of State Senators: Buck Newton (Wilson), Warren Daniel (Burke) and Dan Soucek (Watauga). All are strong socons; Newton, for example, was a vocal advocate of Amendment 1.

Within the NCGA, there's a noticeable tension between the House and Senate, despite unified partisan leadership. Case in point: Only 14 of the 33 Republican Senators have endorsed Tillis (per RRH). Harris may be able to snag more.

More NC-Sen: The video of Rand Paul going to bat for Brannon at CPAC.

NC Democrats: The NCDP's Chairman, Randy Voller, has helped the party inasmuch as DeMint has helped the Heritage Foundation's research/poolicy arm. Hagan's campaign is having to eschew the state party and form partnership with more local contingencies, such as the Wake Co party.

I guess this is part of a broader trend of state parties losing influence nationally, but the NCDP especially needs to get its act together; this isn't AL or FL!

LA-Sen: Perhaps counter-intuitively, the NRSC wants to emphasize Landrieu's absence at the Senate climate change debate. It part of narrative they're trying to push about her not doing enough for the state. They also put out this ad; admittedly, it took me a few seconds of clicking the video/refreshing the page to get the point of the ad

More LA-Sen: As he's been campaigning north Louisiana lately, Cassidy gives an interview to a Monroe station. Its brief but he mostly talks flood insurance and bashes Obamacare.

More LA-Sen: As you would expect, some of the state's biggest oil/chemical firms are helping Landrieu raise money.

LA-06: Though (apparently) many conservatives trashed Obama's interview with Zach Galifianakis, I'll give Dietzel credit here:

[Miles]

Landrieu says that in FL-13, flood insurance was the deciding factor. Though both the candidates made a point of discussing it, I wouldn't say it was as important as the ACA.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: In a speech to a pro-life group, Brannon claims that Planned Parenthood kills infants as old as three months. This seems to be based on his misunderstanding of a Planned Parnethood lobbyist's testimony. Hagan's camp has emphasized women's issues, such as contraception, and claiming that a Republicans are out of touch; this probably reinforces that for her.

More NC-Sen: On a tea party website that he contributed to, Brannon wrote that a vote for Romney, even in the general election, would "advance tyranny." To Brannon, both Romney and Obama have contempt for the Constitution, you see.

More NC-Sen: Its a few weeks old, but this is about as good a profile on Heather Grant as I've seen. The article is part of the series the Daily Tar Heel is doing on the Senate race. They also did a similar piece on Ted Alexander.

Grant emphasizes the Constitution, but I think Brannon has her outmaneuvered on that front. From her background, as a nurse, to the issues she emphasizes, immigration and the size of government, there seems to be a lot of overlap with Brannon. My guess is that he would clean up with her supporters in a runoff against Tillis. Alexander's greatest challenge is distinguishing himself. He's a strong socon, but Harris already has that niche filled. For fiscal policy, he's pretty much echoing what the others say.

NC-02: Aiken is pretty much the guy to beat in the Democratic primary. Keith Crisco, his main opponent for the nod, is out with an ad.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The Charlotte Observer on Harris. He cites Ted Cruz as his role model. While his career preaching his helping him speak on the stump, tea party leaders question his electability beyond socons.

[Miles]

Well, I'd think that this would be bad news for Brannon, but given how his campaign has rebounded after similar setbacks, he'll probably get another major endorsement or something in the next few days:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Joshgreen]

Well, I'd think that this would be bad news for Brannon, but given how his campaign has rebounded after similar setbacks, he'll probably get another major endorsement or something in the next few days:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hopefully Brannon pulls this off and Hagan can cruise.

[Deus Naturae]

Senate Majority PAC releases ad hitting Cassidy for getting help from AfP.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu's reserving $2.6 million of airtime between mid-April and late June.

[Miles]

Weekend roundup:

NC-02: Aiken's star power is helping him draw crowds at campaign events, another reason why he shouldn't be written off.

NC-06: Though some candidates in this very crowded field have made overtures to him, Coble will not be endorsing in the primary. There were rumors that he'd be endorsing Baby Berger, as evidenced by this very sycophantic flattering press release Berger put out after Coble's retirement. Personally, I'm glad Coble is staying neutral and its probably the right thing to do anyway.

NC-12: In a poll done for EMILY's List, their candidate, Rep. Alma Adams leads the D field with 28%. The second place finisher is Sen. Malcoln Graham, with 19%. The Charlotte-based candidates combine for 37%, which seems a bit low to me.

More NC-12: Sen. Malcolm Graham lands a major endorsement with former Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt. If Graham consolidates support around the Queen City, Smuggie Mitchell has the most to lose.

LA-Sen: Despite the right's reservations about him, one thing Cassidy does bring to the table is his medical background; this makes it harder to attack him on healthcare issues. Cassidy may be the face of a new brand of 'compassionate conservatism'; he still volunteers at a clinic treating the uninsured and teaches medical students. The biggest healthcare-related issue Democrats attack him on are the Medicaid cuts that he voted for in the Ryan budget.

Landrieu's reserving $2.6 million of airtime between mid-April and late June.

Good. She needs to get her approval numbers back up. Like ASAP.

LA-06: Though Garrett Graves is still assembling his campaign, he's working with the guy that engineered McAllister's upset victory. I'm holding off on assessing Graves as a candidate until he gets his campaign up and running, but this a good start for him.

In terms of Brannon's legal troubles, is anyone really attacking him on it yet? I read that no one really had, and so a lot of people are simply unaware of his troubles.

Not really, but look for Tillis to bring it up at the (last remaining) GOP debate next month. It would be bigger if they got in a runoff, which has potential of getting nasty.

[Miles]

LA-06: 'Looks like Edwards is following through with his plans to run. There will be a press conference Monday. As the venue is open to the public and just a few miles from LSU, I'm gonna try to be there to 'cover' it.

[Miles]

'Waiting for Edwards with the rest of the Baton Rouge press corps.

One of the reporters, "More people here for this than Jindal!"

[Miles]

He's running.

[windjammer]

Edwards, the former governor?

[Miles]

Edwards is in!

Pics from the press conference!

Governor Edwards and his son Eli roll in:



Governor Edwards announces that he'll run:



Garret Graves was there, too. He took a few reporter questions after it was over. Seeing him in person, he looks a lot like Paul Ryan, IMO.



Edwards and Graves:



'Had to throw this in!



I think he did a pretty good job. This is probably the best line I've ever heard from a Democrat trying to distance themselves from Obama "I didn't vote for Obama. Where I was, there weren't any voting machines."

He says that he'd like to serve on the Oversight and Agriculture committees if elected.

I was recording his speech but I pressed a wrong button on my iPhone and lost it! I was able to salvage some of it (about the last 8-10 minutes worth when he was taking questions) on video. I'll try to post that soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Miles, you were right about the generational contrast in LA-06. Or as Dietzel put it on Twitter, future v. past. Curious to hear Edwards' speech.

[RogueBeaver]

Claitor: Unlike last time, don't vote for the crook. It's important.

[Niemeyerite]

He doesn't look that old.

[Niemeyerite]

Is it common in the US to have challengers present at your announcement speech? Or is Garret Graves weirder than Edwards?

[Miles]

I'll have longer rant/commentary on LA-06 coming soon.

I uploaded the 8-minutes worth of video that I got of Edwards to Youtube. Yeah, I wish I had the full thing, but this pretty much sums up the essence of his conference.

Is it common in the US to have challengers present at your announcement speech? Or is Garret Graves weirder than Edwards?

This was the first candidate announcement presser like this that I've attended; I'm not sure what the usual practices are.

Craig McCulloch's campaign manager was there. Shelley Hendrix, another candidate was there too. In fact, Edwards was pretty keen on her. When she introduced herself to him, he said "I thought you had to be 25 to run for Congress." He kept his arm around her for a while! haha