LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Tillis gets more good news as the Charlotte Observer endorsed him in the primary:

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Hagan obviously gets the Dem nod and Haugh for Libertarians.

Looks like Harris is gonna continue to go negative. This is the main part of a fundraising email I got from him:

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He then links to articles covering Brannon's financial/ethics issues and one where Tillis said that Amendment 1 will likely be overturned down the line.

[publicunofficial]

LA-05: Some in leadership think McAllister's retirement wasn't enough. Cantor is still thinks he should resign. The LAGOP seemed content to see him retire, so that probably gives him the impetus to stick around until the end of his term.

Yep; McAllister is sticking around.

LA-Sen/Misc: Political Wire talk with LA sage John Maginnis. Worth listening to.

Wow, wow why such a hard line aganst McAllister but not against Grimm's indictment? No one is calling for his resignation the response from leadership has been muted...

A) LA-05 is a hell of a lot more safe than NY-11

B) The House GOP likes Grimm more than they like McAllister.

[SPC]

A) LA-05 is a hell of a lot more safe than NY-11

Isn't that more reason to try to jettison a general-election disaster than someone whose seat will vote Republican anyway?

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Jeb will endorse Tillis tomorrow.

[publicunofficial]

A) LA-05 is a hell of a lot more safe than NY-11

Isn't that more reason to try to jettison a general-election disaster than someone whose seat will vote Republican anyway?

"It's not a big deal until we treat it like one"

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The Majority PAC will be spending $230K through next week to help Hagan.

NC-12: The Progressive Kick, a CA-based liberal group, is spending $50K in mailers against Graham.

LA-Sen:House leaders, including Cassidy, are urging Landrieu to support a bill that would remove Obama's authority over the Keystone XL project.

NC-Sen: Tillis gets more estblishment support from Ellmers.

More NC-Sen: Rand Paul will be campaigning in NC for Brannon. The CW here is that this is probably too little, too late.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wonder which is more despised in this district, trial lawyer or lobbyist? I am surprised by the number of ads, but considering the nature of the campaign and with the primary likely to be the general election, it makes sense for them to go all out.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, the election is basically decided next week.

Just curious, who are you voting for?

I sent in my ballot yesterday, but didn't have many interesting races to vote in. 

[Miles]

NC-Sen/Misc: Elon has a poll with approvals but no head-to-heads:

Obama- 41/49
Hagan- 35/47
Tillis- 21/32
McCrory- 35/45

A good sign for Tillis is that 63% recognize his name compared to 26% for Harris and 21% for Brannon.

This is where AFP has been so damn effective:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

^ Yeah, the election is basically decided next week.

Just curious, who are you voting for?

I sent in my ballot yesterday, but didn't have many interesting races to vote in.  

I don't even know if I will be able to to vote. Our one window is on Saturday and that is only if we can get a ride, and it is not topping my mom's priority list right now.

I am not sure.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It seems the in thing is to accuse people in NC politics of protecting/defending child predators. I got malers today attacking Woody White for defending them in court paid for by YG Network, ever heard of them?

Also some group is running ads attacking one of the State Supreme Court Justices for siding with Predators.

[Miles]

It seems the in thing is to accuse people in NC politics of protecting/defending child predators. I got malers today attacking Woody White for defending them in court paid for by YG Network, ever heard of them?

Also some group is running ads attacking one of the State Supreme Court Justices for siding with Predators.

I think that's the Young Guns group. Its associated with the GOP House leadership. Cantor has fundraised for Rouzer, so that makes sense.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Long NJ read on McConnell's strategy.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: TP never really took off.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Early voting ended on Saturday and I couldn't get a ride. Tuesday looks dicey and I cannot seem to get anyone to care about the matter even long enough to hold a conversation about it, more or less get them to arrange transportation.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: PPP took a final primary poll over the weekend. Tillis actually lost support, but is still clinging to 40%:

Tillis- 40%
Brannon- 28%
Harris- 15%

If Brannon can manage to clear 30%, I think he could force Tillis into a runoff. The visibility he'll get with the Rand Paul event today should help.

Also, Romney has endorsed Tillis.

LA-Sen: The NJ is on to what I've been saying for a while. Landrieu would be better off in a runoff if Republicans took control of the Senate in November. Being in the minority would diminish her seniority, but at least takes Senate control out of the question. Landrieu beat Terrell under such a situation.  

LA-06: There was a Republican candidate forum last week. Here's the intro. I'll try to find the rest.

[windjammer]

Tillis will probably manage to avoid the run off. A shame .

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Predictions for major races (would also like to hear Miles' thoughts):

NC Senate: While I still desperately hope that this goes to a runoff between Tillis and Brannon, I think Tillis will win the nomination outright with about 43%.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Brannon (and perhaps even Harris) over-perform and Tillis only avoids a runoff by the absolute skin of his teeth.  I really hope I'm wrong and Tillis gets stuck in a runoff though.

NC-2 (R): Ellmers wins by an underwhelming margin and Roche reaches the very low 40s.

NC-2 (D): Crisco beats Aiken by a wider than expected margin.  Not only is Crisco probably a stronger candidate, but I've read (forget where, it may've even been in an article posted here) that the local consensus is that Aiken's been running a less than impressive campaign and it is starting to be seen as a celebrity vanity campaign.  I'm not very confident about this prediction though.

NC-3: Walter Jones wins the primary, but this will be his closest primary victory yet (though he should still win by nine or ten points, at worst).

NC-6: Phil "Miles' bane" Berger Jr. barely avoids a runoff.  

NC-7: David Rouzer wins, but only by a very narrow margin due to regional voting.

NC-12: It seems like George Battle III has the momentum for the runner-up spot.  It may be too little, too late, but I'm going to be optimistic and predict that Battle narrowly edges out Graham and faces Alma Adams in the runoff.

[Miles]

^ My predictions:

Senate: I think Tillis is on track to avoid a runoff. I'll have my more specific prediction out later.

NC-02: Sounds about right. I'd say Ellmers would be in the high-50's/low-60's.

For the Democrats, yeah, Aiken has run a poor campaign. Crisco probably wins.

NC-03: Jones wins with 60%-ish. He may get a bit lower, because many of his voters are Democrats that vote for him in the general.

NC-06: Agree.

NC-07: Clear win for Rouzer, I'd say by around 10 points.

NC-12: Graham barely makes it to the runoff with Adams.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Ratfinksing at its finest.

[windjammer]

I seriously think Tillis will be nominated. She shouldn't spend money like that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If I can get to the polls I am probably voting for White over Rouzer.  I voted for Rouzer last time because I thought that Pantano was a weak candidate to go against McIntyre. But Rouzer, despite bring from the same country as myself, is not only weak on amnesty, but also a former lobbyist and a protege of Jesse Helms. Three strikes...

I have finally gotten my mother to take a look at the primary and particularly the Senate race and seems to be leaning towards Ted Alexander. I still have no idea who vote for and have a better feel for county commission then for Senate.

I cannot stand Tillis and think his own scandal will doom him, Brannon is hobbled by the same thing as well as gaffe potential, and Harris is a Huckabee type. I might just throw the vote on one of the lower tier types as well.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Write-up of the Brannon/Rand rally.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If those higher powers who have gifted Democrats 5 Senate seats they should not have won in the past 2 years really exist and love the Democrats, they will look kindly on us and at the very least force Tillis to a runoff.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Didn't know this myself, but Wake will be crucial in the GE. Wonder which counties will be crucial tomorrow night.