LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: WaPo's interviewees seem to think Tillis wins tomorrow.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Didn't know this myself, but Wake will be crucial in the GE. Wonder which counties will be crucial tomorrow night.

And they give Dave a shout out!

Yeah, as it casts the most votes, Wake is kinda an important county.

Look for a lot of Tillis' strength to come from that ring of blue counties around Charlotte, specifically Iredell and Union counties. Harris will probably do well in the southeast and along the Blue Ridge, which tend to be the more religious areas. Brannon is harder to pin to a specific place.

NC-Sen: WaPo's interviewees seem to think Tillis wins tomorrow.

As do most people...

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Rand's rally w/Brannon.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Utter train wreck today. They took us to wrong precinct and they were more then determined to make sure we didn't vote at all, then to vote provisional.

We voted provisional in the primary runoff in 2012 and they didn't treat us like this. So they probably just put our votes in the damn trash considering how much of an imposition the treated us as. Only people in the damn location in the middle town in the afternoon, I mean god forbid we delayed the hundreds of people who were not lined up outside.

Then we had to back out of a parking spot to leave and this damn car with an Obama/Biden sticker was in a no parking zone blocking the path and to make matters worse the vehicle we were in kept stalling and my mom had to get to work.

[Miles]

LA-06: Though Sen. Norby Chabert is taking a pass on this race, another candidate from his neck of the woods may enter. Freshman Rep. Lenar Whitney (R-Houma) is generally seen as one of the rising leaders in the legislature and is reportedly considering a run.

[RogueBeaver]

Whose supporters would he aim for?

[Miles]

^ She would hurt Graves the most; her business background would also make Dietzel and McColluch voters consider her.

[RogueBeaver]

You think she runs?

NC-Sen: WaPo cheat sheet.

[moderatevoter]

I just knew Krazen would be making an appearance this morning.

[Miles]

^ The poor guy needs attention.

NC-Sen: Rand Paul has quickly endorsed Tillis, in the interest of unity.

The only race still 'undecided' at this point is NC-02; Aiken is up by less than 400 votes but Crisco hasn't conceded.

LA-Sen: Nate Cohn looks at this race. He especially looks at her share of the white vote. Good read.

[publicunofficial]

All aboard Train Tillis! This should nearly complete the purge of white liberals from federal office in North Carolina.

Will Tillis' coattails allow David Price to be defeated? Or are you just stupid.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: $673k of anti-Tillis ads from Majority PAC starting tomorrow.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: 86 state legislators have been Senate nominees since 1980. Only 6 have beaten incumbents. Interestingly, Hagan was one of them.

LA-Sen: Glorious News! Hopefully more endorsements follow:



Maness also has a pretty decent ad out.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

NC-Sen: Hagan goes on the defense on Obamacare at hearing

[Miles]

^ Good. She needs to start motivating the base. The NCGA session should help, but I guess such extra steps are good.

[moderatevoter]

New poll on LA-Sen

(Miles, I am finally linking URLs properly )

Not sure how reputable the pollster is, but saw this floating around today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We cant take anything for granted, but this is a Clinton-Gore firewall state, if we cant beat Cassidy, we wont win control of the senate.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: 'Brutally accurate analysis of Hagan's situation. Basically, Hagan = Obama. The only ways she can win are by developing more crossover appeal or topping Obama's turnout machine. The latter is impossible. To achieve the former, she's gonna have to destroy Tillis:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, Hagan's got one of the largest war chests of any incumbent Senators. Look for the ads to start rolling soon.

More NC-Sen: Speaking of attacking Tillis, the Hagan camp is seizing on a video of him speaking to constituents. He says that he's looking for ways to "divide and conquer" those on public assistance. Will it have the effect of the 47% comment? Maybe not, but it does help Democrats cast Tillis as coldhearted and uncaring.

More NC-Sen: Though Tillis won the primary, one of the consolation prizes for Democrats will be that he still has to navigate the upcoming NCGA session. Democrats will surely be trying to throw him a curve ball or two and who knows what the far-right legislators in his caucus will come up with this year. At any rate, one of the top issues will be about the recent coal ash spill in the Dan River. Voters who know about it are less likely to support Tillis.

NC-02: With a few hundred absentee/provisional ballots out still, Crisco isn't conceding. Currently Aiken is leading by 369 votes.

NC-12: Alma Adams is going to be the next Congresswoman from NC-12; because of McCrory's handling of the election schedule, she must wait till November to win with 75%+ of the vote. Adams will be the first Greensboro Democrat in Congress since 1985.

LA-Sen: The latest slogan from the Landrieu camp is #I'mWithMary.

LA-06: In an interview with LSU, Edwards says he supports SSM. LA-06 is probably the most socially moderate district, but I doubt that plays well. Though, I imagine if you're voting against Edwards, its not because of his stance on SSM.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Apparently Hagan underperformed in Conserva-Dem counties against an OWS-type guy who's pro-immigration reform, pro-marijuana, and anti-NSA.  Any explanation to that, Miles?

[moderatevoter]

Apparently Hagan underperformed in Conserva-Dem counties against an OWS-type guy who's pro-immigration reform, pro-marijuana, and anti-NSA.  Any explanation to that, Miles?

From what I've heard, both of her opponents were entirely anonymous. So maybe it was just a matter of checking off a name that wasn't Hagan's? Miles can shed more light on this, but that's what I thought it was.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Apparently Hagan underperformed in Conserva-Dem counties against an OWS-type guy who's pro-immigration reform, pro-marijuana, and anti-NSA.  Any explanation to that, Miles?

From what I've heard, both of her opponents were entirely anonymous. So maybe it was just a matter of checking off a name that wasn't Hagan's? Miles can shed more light on this, but that's what I thought it was.

That's a shame.  I figured that if WNC is becoming friendlier to libertarian-leaning Dems of populist stripes, then maybe I have a political future here after all.

[Miles]

^ Its pretty simple: Hagan = Obama. Her opponents were nobodies, so I doubt most of their voters had genuine knowledge of where they stood on those issues. She performed the worst in the conservaDem counties:



In Columbus County, the most conservaDem county in the state, she did better against Dole (59%) than she did this week (52.5%).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So it is safe to say Columbus County is probably out of reach for Hagan this time?

[Miles]

I mean, its not so much Columbus County in particular as it is much of the southeast/east in general.

Look how many counties is that region were McCain/Hagan in 2008:

President


Senate

[RogueBeaver]

Miles, what are conservaDem demographics like?