LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

^ White, older and rural. They're much more prevalent in the east but still have some pockets of strength in the west.

[Miles]

I'm not sure if this is badass or sleazy. Either way, the Senate Majorty PAC filmed its last ad at Tillis' victory party.

[moderatevoter]

I'd lean towards sleazy, but that doesn't mean it can't be a bit of both.

[RogueBeaver]

Either very tongue-in-cheek or hilarious: New Yorker, of all places, calls Tillis a "moderate."

[Vern]

Miles, who do you think will win in the NC -6 runoff? I can see Mark Walker pulling an upset.

[Miles]

I'm expecting Berger, but Walker could win if he:

A) Can consolidate the anti-Berger vote in Guilford County. Berger only won there by 200 votes and was under 30%. Surprisingly weak, given his father is well-known there.

B) Keeps Berger's margins down in the VA border counties, Surry and Stokes counties in particular. Berger was hoovering at about 40% in both. I'd say Walker needs to hold Berger to 55% or less.

C) Wins Alamance County comfortably. Berger (30.9%) barely beat Walker (30.4%) there in the primary.

As 40% of the district is in Guilford County, point A is most important for Walker. He would also need to combine that with at either B or C.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Senate Majority PAC drops another $844k in airtime.

[moderatevoter]

Is this $844K in addition to the ~$600K we heard about last week? Or is it instead of?

[RogueBeaver]

Is this $844K in addition to the ~$600K we heard about last week? Or is it instead of?

Instead of.

[Sol]

Keith Crisco died!

http://myfox8.com/2014/05/12/keith-crisco/

[Never]

Keith Crisco died!

http://myfox8.com/2014/05/12/keith-crisco/

Yikes!
My condolences to his friends and family as they cope with their loss.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

R.I.P.  That's terrible.

The obvious question has to be asked: what would have happened if Crisco won the primary?

[NewYorkExpress]

R.I.P.  That's terrible.

The obvious question has to be asked: what would have happened if Crisco won the primary?

If it turns out a runoff is still necessary (i.e Aiken still below 40%), Would Aiken simply be the winner or would there still be a runoff (There is a third candidate, Toni Morris)

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Aiken will temporarily suspend his campaign.

[Miles]

Wow, thats very sad. RIP.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Aiken will temporarily suspend his campaign.

I clicked the link and it tried to download something onto my computer. Just a heads up.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Aiken will temporarily suspend his campaign.

I clicked the link and it tried to download something onto my computer. Just a heads up.

Hm, I go on this site fairly often and that's never happened to me before.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Aiken will temporarily suspend his campaign.

I clicked the link and it tried to download something onto my computer. Just a heads up.

Hm, I go on this site fairly often and that's never happened to me before.

Yeah, it seemed like a legitimate site. It has to be an issue with my computer, but still, just wanted to give you all a warning in case.

[Miles]

Landrieu has two great new ads featuring her father.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Clay Aiken has won the primary.

It looks like he won't be invisible to voters on the November ballot.

[SPC]

Maybe I've just shed my bias, but it seems like as of today the Democrats are in a much better position to keep the Senate than there were, say, a month ago. Cotton is floundering, Peters has pulled ahead, Udall, Begich, and Hagan have all maintained slim but consistent leads, and Iowa appears to be the only race that has substantively moved in the other direction. If the Republicans flop on Election Day and fall short of the 5 seats they need to put the Senate in play, do Landrieu's chances of winning the runoff become substantially greater?

[moderatevoter]

Way too early to tell.

DSCC had Arkansas at Pryor +3. I think his lead is around there right now. But the rest of the undecideds should lean for Cotton. I always have maintained (even when people here claimed Pryor was Lincoln 2.0), that Pryor would be tougher to oust. But I still think he goes down in the end by a slim margin.

I think it's ridiculous to think the Libertarian will get 11% in November. Like Miles said, the poll reminded me a lot of the one that had Burr up by 2 in Summer 2010. While Tillis is hardly a perfect nominee, she is the most "Generic" of the four incumbents in Romney states. Whereas Landrieu, Pryor, and Begich can significantly over-perform Obama in their states, but Hagan isn't much as strong. Whereas the national environment has improved some for Democrats, Hagan's numbers have been stuck at the same place since October. She's in trouble, but she's certainly not out.

I never actually thought Land was going to beat Peters in Michigan. Gardner is certainly more formidable than Buck, but he needs the environment to worsen a little bit.

I think it's just very early to tell. The picture will become clearer in August, September, and beyond.

[windjammer]

Way too early to tell.

DSCC had Arkansas at Pryor +3. I think his lead is around there right now. But the rest of the undecideds should lean for Cotton. I always have maintained (even when people here claimed Pryor was Lincoln 2.0), that Pryor would be tougher to oust. But I still think he goes down in the end by a slim margin.

Generally I trust PPP, but I think it's ridiculous to think the Libertarian will get 11% in November. Like Miles said, the poll reminded me a lot of the one that had Burr up by 2 in Summer 2010. While Tillis is hardly a perfect nominee, she is the most "Generic" of the four incumbents in Romney states. Whereas Landrieu, Pryor, and Begich can significantly over-perform Obama in their states, but Hagan isn't much as strong. Whereas the national environment has improved some for Democrats, Hagan's numbers have been stuck at the same place since October. She's in trouble, but she's certainly not out.

I never actually thought Land was going to beat Peters in Michigan. Gardner is certainly more formidable than Buck, but he needs the environment to worsen a little bit.

I think it's just very early to tell. The picture will become clearer in August, September, and beyond.

Yeah, I don't know why, the PPP has a tendancy to oversample the Libertarian vote.

[Miles]

NC-06: I kinda had a feeling this would happen, but Coble endorsed Baby Berger. On the flip side, it may indicate that Berger is doing worse than expected if he had to seek out Coble's help.

[Miles]

LA-05: Businessman Harris Brown (R) from Monroe will run here. Like McAllister, Brown comes from the private sector and has no previous electoral experience. He's currently the director of the Nature Conservancy of Louisiana and is involved in local politics though.

NC-Misc: One of the bright spots Democrats this year could be Wake County. Though Republicans have a majority on the County Commission, Democrats are set to flip, and possibly sweep, it. This also somehow may be good news for Hagan, as Wake will be critical in her race.