LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Has LA-6 been fairly quiet generally lately?

Yeah; the legislative session is winding down, so more campaigning should be around the corner.

Claitor also has another video out. He touches a lot on immigration in this one, coming out against the Obama Administration and amnesty. He's worked as an assistant DA in the past, so he probably has more clout on this issue than the other candidates.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Bill Cassidy gave the GOP weekly address. Nothing new: he pushes Keystone XL, Obama/Democrats are bad and Cassidy is a boring speaker.

Speaking of LA-Sen, I'm working on a detailed analysis of, er, a major parish, which I hope to have up tomorrow!

[RogueBeaver]

LA-5: McAllister is running for reelection.

[Miles]

^ Ha! I was wondering when he'd un-retire!

[DINGO Joe]

Does the woman he was kissin' on get her job back too, or is she sol?

[Maxwell]

At this point he's just doing it to annoy the GOP.

Could he atleast quit with the whole family values nonsense?

[Miles]

McAllister's flaws aside, it was pretty nervy of Cantor to pressure him to resign. Cantor lost, so it would be hilarious if McAllister is reelected.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: 'Neat little inter-state endorsement swap here. Well, with Jindal endorsing Cotton, Huckabee is returning the favor by endorsing Cassidy. Huckabee has been getting more involved in Senatorial politics recently, as he just cut an ad for Lamar Alexander.

LA-05: Sen. Elbert Guillory (R) says he may run for this seat. Currently he's set to run for LG next year, but says that he has campaign infrastructure in place and pivoting to the House race wouldn't be impossible. Perhaps a poll from late May could be factoring into his thinking; he was polling at 9% behing Billy Nungesser and John Young, two other Republicans. Then again, OTOH, if there's one thing you should know about Elbert Guillory its that he likes attention.

[Miles]

Dueling ads in NC-Sen:

Majority PAC hits Tillis on education cuts and tax breaks for the rich.

Crossroads GPS hits Hagan on Obamacare.

LA-Sen: On something of a personal note, this is why I identify as pro-life, but have little sympathy for the pro-life movement (or at least its leaders). Abortion is is becoming at least a minor issue in this race.

Recently, LA passed its version of the TX abortion bill. In LA, it had pretty bipartisan support. Landrieu said that among the reasons Jindal signed it is his Presidential ambitions. The LA Right to Life is calling on her to issue an apology. Really? Jindal's imminent Presidential run is one of the most open secrets in politics. Even many Republicans acknowledge he governs with an eye towards 2016. Landrieu has to apologize for pointing out the obvious? Pathetic.

[Never]

^ As a fellow pro-lifer, I'll have to agree that it is unwarranted for to ask Landrieu to apologize for her comments about Jindal. She recognizes that the Jindal is very ambitious, and she called it like she saw it.

[RogueBeaver]

^ As a fellow pro-lifer, I'll have to agree that it is unwarranted for to ask Landrieu to apologize for her comments about Jindal. She recognizes that the Jindal is very ambitious, and she called it like she saw it.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Parish-level dynamics in this race are beginning to emerge. Cassidy is investing in the Florida parishes. This area, I call the Interstate 12 Corridor, stretches from eastern Baton Rouge to St. Tammany Parish.

Politically, the I-12 corridor is LA's version of northwestern AR: an area that it growing much faster than the rest of the state and skewing it towards the GOP.

Cassidy represents Livingston parish, where he needs to have a strong showing (further downballot, I think Dietzel will do well there). On the eastern side, Landrieu needs to contain the slippage in St. Tammany Parish. As its part of the New Orleans metro, Landrieu did very well there (getting 37% in '08 vs. 22% for Obama).

Since this area is already pretty solidly GOP-leaning, the fact that Cassidy is investing here suggests he's moving to shore up his base; both ideologically and around his district.  

[Vern]

I think Mark Walker will win the run-off on July 15th.

[NHLiberal]

Bill Cassidy's 17-year old daughter is pregnant #Louisiana #FamilyValues

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/gop-hopeful-daughter-pregnant-108568.html?hp=l4

[NerdyBohemian]

Bill Cassidy's 17-year old daughter is pregnant #Louisiana #FamilyValues

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/gop-hopeful-daughter-pregnant-108568.html?hp=l4

If it were Landrieu's daughter the right-wing noise machine would never shut up about it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He really only had a small chance in this race anyways. Landrieu won in 2002 with a popular GOP prez and in 2008. There goes the senate for thr GOP.

[Miles]

Whoah. Overall, I doubt this will be factor.

[Miles]

Whoah. Overall, I doubt this will be factor. If anything it makes Cassidy look even more pro-life.

I think Mark Walker will win the run-off on July 15th.

I think he can pull it off. I don't like that Phyllis Schafly has endorsed him, but it would be nice to see Baby Berger lose.

[Miles]

Just to get this out there, I probably won't be here to liveblog the NC-06 runoff next Tuesday. I'm trying to get a precinct map of the primary up by then though (with some of the other CDs). The new NC elections returns format is a damn mess and its taking me forever. If it was like this for the past few cycles, I probably wouldn't have been able to get into electoral cartography

[RogueBeaver]

LA-5: Looks like Guillory is in.

[DINGO Joe]

Bill Cassidy's 17-year old daughter is pregnant #Louisiana #FamilyValues

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/gop-hopeful-daughter-pregnant-108568.html?hp=l4

"Our daughter now faces a more challenging future than her peers."

I don't know exactly who Cassidy considers his daughters peers to be, but I'm betting she's still way ahead.

Also, it's helps Louisiana in it's battle with Mississippi to be number one in teen births.

[Miles]

^ Well, I guess we'll get to see Guillory defeated a year earlier . He's at a huge geographical disadvantage. He has a very good relationship with my uncle though; I wouldn't be surprised if Guillory called him for an endorsement.

LA-06: 'Good profile of Edwards' campaign. Edwards and his campaign manager, 27 year-old Ari Krupkin, are hoping to raise at least $1 million. The article calls Edwards a 'rock star' on the campaign trail. Having seen him in action myself, I gotta agree; he knows how to draw/work a crowd. For most of the older voters, especially down in the bayou, he just brings back memories of better times.

[RogueBeaver]

Miles: Do you think the other 2 anti-McAllister candidates have a shot?

[Miles]

I'm supposed to be keeping a better tab on this, but there are 2 Some Dudes and a Duck Dynasty guy. I'd be watching Duck Dynasty guy. One of the State Senators from Monroe is looking at the race as well.

The mayor of Monroe, Jamie Mayo (the Dem that took third place last year), dropped in LADP headquarters recently. I'd think odds are at least 50/50 that he runs again.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: WaPo profiles Haugh.