LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why wait, just say no now. That goes for all three of them.

[Miles]

Excellent news!

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Which just goes to show the horrible disservice to the GOP this crop of lame contenders is doing by freezing the field until they make a decision, a desicion that can only be good for the GOP if they decide not to run.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Landrieu raises $1.2 million in Q1, Cassidy 500k.

http://atr.rollcall.com/louisiana-landrieu-raises-1-2-million-in-first-quarter/

[Miles]

Landry seems to be getting a bit creative. He may run for Congress in Cassidy's open CD6.

Though this seems kinda crazy and Landry would be an ostensible underdog to a Baton Rouge Republican, it could feasibly work, especially given the jungle primary. There is actually a noticeable chunk of LA-06 that Landry represented in the 112 Congress.


This map, from the LA-03 runoff thread I made a while back, looks at how Landry's old CD3 was carved up:



The teal portions are now in CD6.

[RogueBeaver]

So long as he's out of the Senate race.

[Miles]

NC Yankee will like this: McHenry is running for the House again.

This means the race for CD10 will be McHenry vs. Bellamy.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So long as he's out of the Senate race.

^ This

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We still have four more lame horses to dispense with though, if the article is any guide.

[windjammer]

Miles, do you think that the republicans will be united behind Bill Cassidy? I don't see another republicans who could run for senate if Jeff Landry rules out.

[Miles]

Miles, do you think that the republicans will be united behind Bill Cassidy? I don't see another republicans who could run for senate if Jeff Landry rules out.

Sadly, yes. Any others would be non-factors.

[windjammer]

And is Cassidy a strong candidate or an Akin-style?

[Miles]

And is Cassidy a strong candidate or an Akin-style?

Eh, he's who the state Republicans wanted. I don't foresee him having any Akin-esque debacles.

[Miles]

Overall, red state Democrats kicked ass this quarter with fundraising. Just so we have all five of them in one list:

Raised in Q1/CoH (in millions)

Hagan: 1.6/2.7
Landrieu: 1.2/3.5
Baucus: 1.5/4.8
Begich: .94/1.5
Pryor: 1.9/3.4

[Miles]

Downballot in NC-07, we have some relatively low numbers at this point. McIntyre is sitting on $182K after pulling in $118K in Q1. Rouzer, who launched his rebid less than a month ago, has $ 9K CoH.

Also, FWIW, Virginia Foxx has $1.5 million on hand and raised almost $100K. 'Thats quite a bit for having such a safe seat. Could she be planning for other things?

[windjammer]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/hagan-leads-all-republicans-berry-leads-gop-hopefuls.html

Good news! Her support for gay mariage doesn't weaken her. What's more, her reelection won't be compromised because of gun control.

[Miles]

A tad worse than last time, IIRC, but still good.

Ellmers' fundraising wasn't horrible this quarter, right at $100K, but it still confirms my hunch that she won't run.

[windjammer]

The club for growth is targeting her. So it would be risky for her to run for the US senate.

[Miles]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-04-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 36%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RogueBeaver]

So that leaves the even lousier state bench. Hagan's getting a second term even though on paper it should be a tossup.

[Miles]

Tillis has gone from 2% to 7% in the R primary! Those commercials he cut might actually be having an impact.

[Miles]

Both ladies voted Yea on Manchin-Toomey. Obviously, it was riskier for Landrieu; this was her statement:

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As you might expect, the comments on Facebook ranged from "start looking for a new job!" to "you just earned my vote, Senator."

[Vern]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-04-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 36%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Why did you use this guy instead of Berry's numbers?

[Miles]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-04-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 36%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Why did you use this guy instead of Berry's numbers?

Because Brannon is the only candidate thats actually announced his intention to run.

[Miles]

In addition to Manchin-Toomey, a bill to limit the capacity of clips was also up yesterday and actually failed 54/46. Both of Louisiana's Senators voted against it. Strategically, this should give Landrieu at least some cover after she went out on a limb to support Manchin-Toomey.

The four other red state Democrats voted Nay as well.