LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Rankings: On the Fix's top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, NC has dropped to 6 (from 5 last time) while LA remains in 4th place.

LA-05: Yes, he's made his mistakes, but I really like this guy. McAllister thanks Jindal...for not endorsing him.

[smoltchanov]

Well, Democrats absolutely need to win North Carolina if they are to preserve their Senate majority. Essentially - they already lost West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, and more likely then not to lose Arkansas and (because of run-off system) Louisiana (yes, i like Mary very much, but still - ...). They simply can't afford to lose anything else...

[Miles]

Well, its filing day in Louisiana! So far, there don't seem to be any surprises, at least in the higher-profile races. Both Landrieu and Cassidy have qualified; no word on Maness yet. I haven't heard reports of Edwards or McAllister yet, but most of the other major players in their respective races have already filed.

[Miles]

LA-06: Dietzel scores a decent endorsement today with Mike Huckabee.

[RogueBeaver]

Dietzel might be looking for C4G, but my guess is they'd be fine with Graves too so they stay out...

[Miles]

^ On a somewhat related note, I'm curious of Huckabee actually carried CD6 in 2008. Might have to crunch the numbers

NC-Sen: In addition Hagan/Tillis/Haugh, there will be three certified Write-In candidates on the ballot. Overall, it seems like the presence of these guys would hurt Tillis more:

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Granted, these guys probably aren't gonna get more than a few thousand votes total, but NC has become so close it could potentially swing the race. David Waddell, the Indian Trail guy, has gotten a fair bit attention for his fluency in Klingon though

LA-Sen: The DSCC has a significant buy here, $2.5M, hitting Cassidy.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: I'm not sure if this is part of a poll that hasn't been released yet or what, but good news for Hagan if true:

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Its good for Hagan that western voters would be less enthusiastic, as the area is one of the more GOP-friendly regions of the state. While the west swung the heaviest to Romney in 2012, most mountain counties also cast fewer votes than they did in 2008, despite statewide turnout increasing 5%.

SUSA has generally shown Hagan's numbers underwater in the Triad, as well.

^ Edit: SUSA did the poll for Suffolk (which was released yesterday).

[Miles]

LA-05: After qualifying, McAllister took the Ice Bucket Challenge and made a, er, more serious challenge to Jindal:

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I, personally, really like this fued between McAllister and Jindal.

[Miles]

LA-05: Here's one for the "filing day surprises" folder: Ex-Rep. Clyde Holloway, who ran last fall, is reportedly filing for the seat again.

[Miles]

^ On a somewhat related note, I'm curious of Huckabee actually carried CD6 in 2008. Might have to crunch the numbers

Huckabee actually did worse in the new CD6 than he did statewide:



McCain (blue)- 44.4%
Huckabee (orange)- 38.1%
Romney- 7.5%
Paul- 6.7%
Others- 3.3%

Like Huckabee, I'm expecting Dietzel to do well in Livingston Parish. What killed Huckabee was East Baton Rouge Parish; it cast 72% of the district's votes in this election and McCain won it 47/34. I think EBR's share would be lower in a general election situation, but such turnout would be good for Claitor.

[Never]

Republicans are mocking Mary Landrieu for current issues.

[Miles]

^ Those America Rising jackasses are the worst. 'Stupid and disrespectful.

[smoltchanov]

Miles, what's a situation in LA-05 and LA-06 after filing deadline? IMHO, with only one Democrat in LA-05 Mayo has a good chance to get into top 2. If so - who will be second? (Guerriero? Holloway? McAllister? Someone else?) In LA-06 it's probably Edwards vs ? (Claitor? Dietzel? Anyone else?)

[Miles]

^ Smoltchanov, both races are really hard to predict at this point. My friends in the LA Democratic Party say they're strongly committed to Mayo. Whether or not he can win overall is another question, but its pretty clear he's their guy.

 I'm almost temped to say Mayo ran to help McAllister, as they have a good relationship. Mayo will have a better effort this time and has a better chance of making the runoff, as he's the sole major Dem. The anti-McAllister vote will probably split enough so that he's still has a 50/50 shot of making the runoff. In a McAllister/Mayo situation, its hard to see Republicans who voted against McAllister in the primary vote for Mayo in the runoff.

If its McAllister vs. another Republican, I think its harder for McAllister. McAllister starts out getting the Democratic floor (30-35%), but turnout will likely be lower and its easy to see most Republicans voting against him. None of the other Republicans should have problems uniting the anti-McAllister vote on the right.

LA-06 is harder yet to predict. The dearth of polling doesn't really help, either. Graves has by far the best fundraising. Graves, Claitor and Dietzel could all end up facing Edwards. I'd still vote for Claitor, but any of those guys have a decent shot.

[Miles]

LA/NC-Sen: As Obama is not popular in southern states, the CBC members are stepping up to fill the void by acting as surrogates to the black community:

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[smoltchanov]

Thanks. Miles!

[Miles]

LA-03: Boustany, though mostly a mainstream Republican, occassionally has penchant for independence. In the recent Whip election, he actually supported the more moderate Pete Roskam over Scalise. Boustany claims he committed to Roskam before Scalise entered, but is nonetheless taking heat from local leaders. Looking longer term, Boustany is looking to expand his profile on Ways and Means.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Politico occasionally makes quizzes about the lives/careers of certain pols; they've made an edition for Senator Landrieu. It was pretty good; I found out a few things I didn't know.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Obama and Hagan will both be addressing the American Legion Convention in Charlotte today. Many are suggesting that Obama's presence is a burden for Hagan, and the Tillis campaign is surely using this to tie them together.

Unfortunetly for Republican operatives, Burr was right next to Hagan when they recieved Obama at the airport.

LA-Sen: Cassidy has finally agreed to a debate (well, at least one). Its set for October 14th in Shreveport.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Cillizza agrees with my reasoning the Hagan/Obama/Burr exchange:

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[IceSpear]

NC-Sen: Cillizza agrees with my reasoning the Hagan/Obama/Burr exchange:

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Clearly whether Hagan shook Obama's hand or not should be the top issue of the campaign in the minds of North Carolinians.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Gallap finds Democrats hold a 1-point self-idenftification edge over Republicans, 42/41. Still, self-idefictation isn't a perfect indicator of performance: Democrats improved markedly in NC from 2010 to 2012, despite more voters self-ideftying as Republicans in 2012. Another limitation is that Independents are steadily growing their share of the electorate in NC.

More NC-Sen: A few interesting factiods about the ad wars. First, since the start of the year, about $17M has been spent on TV ads. As the race has dragged on, the tone has become increasingly negative; since January, 75% of ads have been negative.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Tillis has a new ad where he tries to show his more positive side while zinging Hagan. The ad reminds me a lot of one of Ron Johnson's from 2010.

More NC-Sen: The DSCC's last ad here hitting Tillis makes some iffy claims and assumptions:

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LA-Sen: Much like Chris McDaniel next door, Maness' campaign is largely being kept afloat by out-of-state donors. Looking at trackable contributions, about 78% of Maness' donations are from non-Lousiana sources.

LA-05: Mary Matalin, James Carville's conservative wife, will be fundrasing for Harris Brown. Matalin has been involved in CD6, too, as she hosted a fundraiser for Graves a month or so ago.

[IceSpear]

Miles, what's your take on Maness? Do you think he has a real chance at making the runoff? I would assume he does since a lot of the moderates/pragmatists which would normally be Cassidy's base will be voting for Landrieu in the jungle.

[Miles]

^ I don't think he makes the runoff; the biggest benefit to Landrieu is that he'll surely prevent Cassidy from winning outright.

This analysis compares Maness to Greg Brannon and I think some of the points are really good. Keep in mind that LA has the highest amount of native-born residents than any state. Maness, despite being from LA, spent most of his career abroad in the Air Force or in DC. Not that I don't admire that, but having weak roots in LA, Maness was (is) be subject to more scrutiny. Even in his ad featuring alligators, he seems unnatural. Brannon was somewhat luckier; he spent most of his career in CA and NY, but NC has a much more open political culture.

The other thing that Maness and Brannon have in common are their endorsements. If either of them had gotten support from local figures, like mayors or sheriffs, it would mean more than someone like Sarah Palin or Ann Coulter. Even Mark Harris, who finished behind Brannon, was able to pick off a few state Senators.

However, I've said for a while that Maness will benefit from the late date of his primary. The SCF, for example, has a million or so in the bank with no one else left to spend it on.