LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Lief 🗽]

Tillis campaign's internal polls have never show them in the lead apparently

[KCDem]

Tillis campaign's internal polls have never show them in the lead apparently

Tillis has had a lot of time to warm up to the idea of a rough thrashing.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: NYT does a deep dive.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Though the waning weeks of Tillis' campaign were defined by ISIS fearmongering and attacking Hagan's husband over a phony scandal, his closing ad ends on a positive note. After all that, he says Hagan is a "good" person and reminds up that he has a 'conscience.'

NC-Sen: Wow, spending here passed the $100M mark yesterday!

LA-06: Garret Graves gets the endorsement from the Times-Picayune. As a Democrat, I wouldn't mind having Graves win; I'll overlook some of his conservative rhetoric on the campaign trail if he'll address coastal restoration in Congress. The Times-Picayune had similar logic:

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[Miles]

LA-06: I think Graves is the frontrunner, but this sounds kinda desperate to me:

 

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[RogueBeaver]

^ Dietzel swats back hard.

Jenkins blasts Graves and demands a public retraction and apology.

[Miles]

Well, here's my best guess at county map for the NC race:



I think the total will be something like:

Hagan- 48.5%
Tillis- 48%
Haugh- 3%
Write Ins- .5%

Things to watch:

Columbus County- I have Hagan winning it because the early numbers there look good. Its a conservaDem stronghold. Even losing by 12 statewide in 2010, Marshall matched Obama's 53/46 loss in 2008. Statewide, Democrats usually win it by at least 10. Hagan herself won it by 19 in 2008. If she still holds it, or is close, its shows that she's holding up decently with Dixiecrats.

Franklin County- A smaller county right north of Wake. Usually Tilt R federally, but swingy statewide. I think there will be backlash against Tillis here.

Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) - Watch Hagan's margins here. Mecklenburg is trending D strongly at the Pres. level, but Hagan needs to turn out voters here. Tillis is from here; he's from north Charlotte though, while the GOP base here is in the south. If Tillis is within 20, he'll be at least competitive statewide.

Watauga County- Usually Tilts R county overall , but this is where Appalachian State is located. If there is strong backlash against Republicans on education, Hagan could well carry it. Obama won it in 08, but it flipped in 12.

New Hanover County- Back down to the southeast! New Hanover (Wilington) has a mild R tilt. There is a competitive State Senate race here, which could buoy turnout. If Tillis is under 50% here, there's a good chance Hagan is up statewide.
 
I haven't really attempted an LA primary map, mostly because I don't know how well Maness will play. My guess is Landrieu gets a plurality in the vast majority of parishes, like 2002.

[njwes]

Out of curiosity, is there a consensus on the ratio of Tillis voters:Hagan voters among those who told pollsters they were supporting Haugh? I guess I'd assume they leaned more toward Tillis, but idk.

[Miles]

^ I'm really convinced he pulls from each about equally. If he pulls more from Tillis, its less than you'd expect.

There are conservatives on the far-right who distrust Tillis and I could see them pulling the lever for Haugh in protest. OTOH, Hagan is overall a very vanilla Democrat, so I could see younger voters who care more about social issues voting Haugh.

[njwes]

^ I'm really convinced he pulls from each about equally. If he pulls more from Tillis, its less than you'd expect.

There are conservatives on the far-right who distrust Tillis and I could see them pulling the lever for Haugh in protest. OTOH, Hagan is overall a very vanilla Democrat, so I could see younger voters who care more about social issues voting Haugh.

It'd be hilarious if those Koch bro. pro-weed Get High Get Haugh votes actually attracted him some voters.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

We'll miss you Mary!

[Miles]

LA-05: Bad night for McAllister, who will be kissing Congress goodbye in January; he got 11% which was way under even what I thought. Jamie Mayo, the Dem, as expected, got a runoff place, but only with 28%. Despite his support from Duck Dynasty and tea party groups, Zach Dasher finished third. Ralph Abraham is the Republicam who'll beat Mayo in the runoff.

LA-06: Edwards, as expected, makes the runoff. Graves really crushed. He got 27% to Deitzel's 14% and Claitor's 10%. For all her hype Whitney only got 7%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

We'll miss you Mary!

Yeah, I don't think she wins. In 2002, she did 5.7 points better in the second round than the first, but that still wouldn't be 48% this time, and her gain would likely be less this time because the 1st round opposition was much more unified.

[njwes]

LA-06: Edwards, as expected, makes the runoff. Graves really crushed. He got 27% to Deitzel's 14% and Claitor's 10%. For all her hype Whitney only got 7%.

Praize Jesus

[Lief 🗽]

DSCC triages Mary Landrieu

[King]

DSCC triages Mary Landrieu

She's going to get Blanched™

[Maxwell]

DSCC triages Mary Landrieu

She's going to get Blanched™

You mean Pryored, right?

[King]

Prior to getting Pryored, you must first get Blanched.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: DSCC has cancelled at least some of their runoff ad buys for now.

[Miles]

To say the least, its gonna be tough



Combining the party totals:



Combined totals vs Obama 12:



Combined totals vs Landrieu 08:

[RogueBeaver]

Pub unity rally on Monday: Cassidy, Jindal, Vitter, Maness, Graves, Hollis, Rand will all be there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Miles I know its painful, but where is my damn NC maps?

[Lief 🗽]

hahah omg this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzusZhB9Uyw&feature=youtu.be

[Ljube]

Bill Cassidy is such a flawed candidate.

[Maxwell]

hahah omg this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzusZhB9Uyw&feature=youtu.be

was he taking Rick Perry's pain pills? jesus christ.

On a more positive note for Cassidy, Mary stepped in it on Katrina. She's sounding pretty desperate.