LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Mark Pryor posted on Facebook that he most supports the Grassley-Cruz Bill for guns, more about it here.

The bill passed 52/48. All 5 red state Democrats plus Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly and McCaskill joined the Republicans (minus Lee for some reason). I doubt the bill actually goes anywhere though

This whole gun business in the Senate is such a clusterf**k.

[Miles]

Also, if we have any creative posters who can think of a cute nickname that we can use to collectively refer to the 5 Romney state Democrats, I'd sure love suggestions!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The fearful five

[RogueBeaver]

Also, if we have any creative posters who can think of a cute nickname that we can use to collectively refer to the 5 Romney state Democrats, I'd sure love suggestions!

RoDems? Romrats?

[Miles]

'Kinda off topic, but could we have another Hagan in the Senate in 2017?

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[Vern]

Rodogs or demenys

[Miles]

Since there's been a good amount of buzz around around Cherie Berry, I made a map of her 2012 reelection results (the Election Info section doesn't have a Sec. of Labor category, so I couldn't just generate a map as I have for other races).



Berry was reelected 53/47, defeating John Brooks, who himself was Sec. of Labor from 1977 to 1993.

- She won Wake County, getting 51%, which was impressive given that Marshall, Atkinson, Wood and Cowell were all at or surpassed 60% there.

- Berry actually made a solid showing in the Triad, which is Hagan's base region. Forsyth County was only 2 points more Democratic than the state, which she won 52/48. Her 46% in Guilford County was also pretty impressive for a Republican, as Hagan thrashed Dole there 62/36.

[JacobNC]

When people find out that she's more than just a face in an elevator, she might not be so popular.

[Vern]

She can play to no one knowing her and run as a moderant.

[windjammer]

Howard Coble won't probably seek reelection:
-- Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C.: Coble raised just $4,167 in the first quarter, compared to about $64,000 in the first quarter of 2011. He ended March with just $37,681 in the bank. He'll be 83 on Election Day and was briefly hospitalized in Februar

[Miles]

Coble has been in and out of the hospital over the past years. Other than the fundraising numbers, I had a feeling that he steps down this cycle because 2014 will mark 30 years since he was first elected.

He's done NC well over his time.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Rothenberg's theory on Landrieu's gun vote is that she did it to goose black turnout.

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/landrieus-gun-vote-a-possible-political-explanation/

[Miles]

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It was 31% in 2012 from the Secretary of State's website. Black turnout has been trending upward and should be around 27%-29%.

The trick for her will be not falling below 33% with whites.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why is it that Berry got those numbers in Wake and the Triad? Is she from one or the other?


When I put her on my original list of five (not to be confused with your lame five, which is something entirely different. Of course I can't even remember more then four of the people on put on said list now) good candidates, it was because she was elected statewide. I wasn't aware of which metro, if any, that she had a connection with at the time.

[Miles]

Why is it that Berry got those numbers in Wake and the Triad? Is she from one or the other?

She lost both in 2008 (52/47 for Forsyth and 55/45 for Guilford). Still, even those numbers were relatively good; for 2012, the Republican average was 46.6% in Forsyth and 42.2% for Guilford, both would have been even lower in 2008.

Berry is from western NC; she represented a House district based in Catawba, Lincoln and Gaston counties in the 1990s.

[Gass3268]

Miles,

Out of curiosity, couple questions about the North Carolina State Legislature:

1. How many Senate/House seats?
2. How many VRA required seats in each body?

[Miles]

Miles,

Out of curiosity, couple questions about the North Carolina State Legislature:

1. How many Senate/House seats?
2. How many VRA required seats in each body?

50 Senate (33R/17D)
120 House  (78R/43D)

I'm not sure how many are required, but the Republicans created several more of them. In the Senate, there are 11 and the House has about 27 or 28.

Three of the VRA Senate seats reelected white incumbents in 2012.

[windjammer]

Is it possible for democrats to retake the house or the senate despite gerrymandering?

[Miles]

Is it possible for democrats to retake the house or the senate despite gerrymandering?

The Senate would be easier, but its still rough. They'd need to run the right candidates in certain districts and have at least a somewhat favorable environment.

[Mr.Phips]

Is it possible for democrats to retake the house or the senate despite gerrymandering?

The Senate would be easier, but its still rough. They'd need to run the right candidates in certain districts and have at least a somewhat favorable environment.

Considering that the 2004-2010 redrawn Senate map wasn't great for Democrats either, that is almost certainly correct.  Their majority there in those years existed by guys like John Snow holding districts that McCain won by double digits in 2008.

[Miles]

Is it possible for democrats to retake the house or the senate despite gerrymandering?

The Senate would be easier, but its still rough. They'd need to run the right candidates in certain districts and have at least a somewhat favorable environment.

Considering that the 2004-2010 redrawn Senate map wasn't great for Democrats either, that is almost certainly correct.  Their majority there in those years existed by guys like John Snow holding districts that McCain won by double digits in 2008.

Snow was one of my biggest disappointments of 2012. He lost his seat by only a few hundred votes in 2010, ran again and lost 57/43, even as the redrawn district was more Democratic. Obama's slump in Appalachia didn't help, but still I had higher hopes.

I actually think Hayden Rogers could potentially win that seat back though.

[Miles]

2. How many VRA required seats in each body?

This is the State Senate. Blue districts are black-majority, purple districts are majority-coalition.

2003:


2011:


Before redistricting, there were 9 nonwhite districts and there were 11 after. It doesn't seem like a big bump, but the key was that Republicans created 6 more districts that were black-majority.

[Mr.Phips]

Is it possible for democrats to retake the house or the senate despite gerrymandering?

The Senate would be easier, but its still rough. They'd need to run the right candidates in certain districts and have at least a somewhat favorable environment.

Considering that the 2004-2010 redrawn Senate map wasn't great for Democrats either, that is almost certainly correct.  Their majority there in those years existed by guys like John Snow holding districts that McCain won by double digits in 2008.

Snow was one of my biggest disappointments of 2012. He lost his seat by only a few hundred votes in 2010, ran again and lost 57/43, even as the redrawn district was more Democratic. Obama's slump in Appalachia didn't help, but still I had higher hopes.

I actually think Hayden Rogers could potentially win that seat back though.

It's amazing how close Snow came to winning in 2010, given that other Democrats in much more favorable districts around the state were losing by huge margins.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6: Potential Pub candidates for Cassidy's seat.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-barrage-bill-cassidys-seat/

[Miles]

LOL, Landry said a few weeks ago he might run there. I say he should, we need some competitive races here!