LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Zioneer]

Also, if we have any creative posters who can think of a cute nickname that we can use to collectively refer to the 5 Romney state Democrats, I'd sure love suggestions!

The Fraidy-Cat Five?

The Red-State Blues?

EDIT: Actually, I really like the "Red-State Blues" name the best, now that I think about it. Very jazzy, while at the same time, it's literally what they are, politically.

[politicus]

Also, if we have any creative posters who can think of a cute nickname that we can use to collectively refer to the 5 Romney state Democrats, I'd sure love suggestions!

The Fraidy-Cat Five?

The Red-State Blues?

EDIT: Actually, I really like the "Red-State Blues" name the best, now that I think about it. Very jazzy, while at the same time, it's literally what they are, politically.

Problem is its violating The Atlas Color Code.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Rothenberg's theory on Landrieu's gun vote is that she did it to goose black turnout.

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/landrieus-gun-vote-a-possible-political-explanation/

I think I agree with RRH on this:

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[Miles]

Also, if we have any creative posters who can think of a cute nickname that we can use to collectively refer to the 5 Romney state Democrats, I'd sure love suggestions!

The Fraidy-Cat Five?

The Red-State Blues?

EDIT: Actually, I really like the "Red-State Blues" name the best, now that I think about it. Very jazzy, while at the same time, it's literally what they are, politically.

Problem is its violating The Atlas Color Code.

Ya know, I think I actually like the Red State Blues the most too. I think we can make an exception to the Atlas scheme this once

[Miles]

McIntyre has always had a strong record on veterans issues and got this little award today for his work on the Armed Services Committee:

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[Miles]

As y'all may have heard, Baucus is retiring. The resulting committee chair shuffling is worth watching here. Wyden is next in line to chair Finance. However, Wyden would likely relinquish his chairmanship of Energy and Natural Resources, where Landrieu would succeed him. That would be great for Louisiana and would also be a good campaign/fundraising point for her. I'd like to see Cassidy argue against that!

[Miles]

Politico says that the early fundraising start that the Red States Blues (I'm going with that nickname XD) have gotten will help them down the road. Wow, I would have never guessed.

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[JacobNC]

^^Good nickname, but too confusing, since here on USelectionatlas I don't know if Red refers to Democrats or Republicans.

[Miles]

'Called this yesterday!

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[Miles]

'Kinda off topic, but one of my friends who goes to Harvard got to meet Governor Perdue today. Perdue is teaching there for a semester before she goes to Duke. I wish I was Ivy League material like that but alas...XD

[Miles]

Not the best press, but I see her point:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Even though he hasn't been discussed as a potential candidate by anyone important (save for myself if that counts. ), could I possibly get a map of Steve Troxler's 2012 results to see what metros he did well or poorly in, Miles?

[Miles]

The 2012 Agriculture Commissioner Map:



Troxler only lost Forsyth by 19 votes and matched Berry in Wake.

Troxler (blue) vs. Berry (red). They both won 53/47 but their coalitions were a bit different:



Its hard to come with one general pattern here, there's both an east/west thing and an urban/rural contrast, but their are exceptions to both.

As we've said before, Berry is from Catawba County, so she did better around Charlotte and in the west, though that cluster of blue counties around Buncombe stands out.

Troxler is from Guilford County, which explains why he got 47.5% there, pretty darn good for a Republican.

Troxler was better in the racially diverse counties around CD1 and along the inner coast; the exceptions are that pink Wilmington to New Bern stretch and those four counties in the northeastern corner of the coast.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You are doing god's work Miles.


So it would be fair to say that each of the victorious Republicans have atleast two areas of overperformance amongst the three Dem trending Metros then.

McCrory seems to have a Charlotte+Triad thing going on (according to the approvals it would seem, though in his election he didn't do that badly out this way this time either)
Troxer and Berry meanwhile have a Triangle+Triad combination.

Which two did Forest do best in?

[Miles]

McCrory is also makng inroads along the coast. He took one of his ceremonial oaths of office in New Bern, Perdue's hometown. I personally thought that was a bit arrogant, but I think he could do even better in that region in 2016.

This was the LG race:



It ended up being more or less a Generic R vs. Generic D race, though with a few quirks.

What gave the election to Forest was that he did better at home. Coleman was from Wake County but did almost a point worse than Obama there. Forest performed nearly 3 points better than Romney in Mecklenburg. I wasn't up there for the fall, but during the summer, there were lots of those red "Run Forest Run!" signs by my neighborhood.

Here's Coleman vs. Obama:

[Miles]

Hagantook some swipes at the Assembly over the weekend:

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I think it could do her some good if she was more critical of the Assembly more often.

Progress NC sums this up pretty well:

[JacobNC]

I don't like Dan Forest but he did have some slightly clever yard signs that played off of the movie Forest Gump - with slogans "Run, Forest, Run!" and "Lieutenant Dan"

[Miles]

This is kind of a...grim...finding, but Cherie Berry's Labor Department is being accused of under-reporting the number of workplace deaths in the state:

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Its bizarre, but if Berry actually does run for Senate, this may come back up.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: RCP profiles Landrieu's race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/imperiled_red-state_dems_stick_to_their_own_playbooks_118196.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Miles]

This is local NC stuff, but the current Assembly term will be Tillis' last as Speaker. Rep. Ruth Samuelson, another Republican from Mecklenburg County, is seen a frontrunner to replace him.

Samuelson is the currently Republican Conference Leader. More importantly, she was my representative up until redistricting, where she got some new parts of south Charlotte.

The NCGOP has been accused of being 'anti-woman', so electing the first woman Speaker might be a good way to counter that.

One of her highest priorities this session was introducing the voter ID bill.

[Miles]

Ellmers was on MSNBC criticizing the sequester.

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She went on to defend her vote for the FAA bill.

[Miles]

Presidential (blue) vs. Landrieu (red)



Landrieu 2008 vs. Obama 2008



Landrieu 2008 vs. Obama 2012



Cameron Parish was really in a category of its own. It went from Landrieu +68.7% to Landrieu + 79.5%.

Landrieu 1996 vs. Clinton 1996



She wasn't an incumbent in 1996, but Clinton performed better in every Parish. The closest she came was Orleans, where Clinton only did 1.3% better. I was expecting Clinton's performance to be more pronounced up north, but he was really good Democrat for Acadiana.

[Miles]

Apparently Cassidy is the Koch Brother's favorite Senate candidate this cycle.

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I think I'll go to work a few hours early today so I can make some extra $ to donate to Landrieu. I'm just a lowly student worker, but I'll do my part to fight this.

[Miles]

Paul Dietzel (R) is the first candidate to declare for LA-06. Surprisingly, he isn't from the Legislature, but has a few local factors going for him. For ya'll non-Tigers, Dietzel's grandfather was the coach that led LSU to their national championship in 1958.

Oh, and also of note is that he's only 27.

[RogueBeaver]

Sounds like a good candidate. No such thing as an overly large or IMO, young bench.