LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Next week, Cassidy will be having a town hall at Clearview mall in Metairie; thats usually where I go see movies with my friends. He'll probably be preaching to the choir, though, as Metairie is already heavily Republican, but these are the types of places outside of his district where he needs to establish himself.

[windjammer]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/north-carolina-question-suggestions.html


PPP will poll NC again!

[Miles]

Though Riser (R) is favored in LA-05, there's actually a decent slate of local Democrats looking into the race:

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[Miles]

John Maginnis has a few insightful obseravtions about Alexander's district. Republicans looking to reach out to minorities could learn from Alexander:

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He goes on to say that, more generally, a lack of quality candidates in local races could hurt Democrats down the line:

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[smoltchanov]

Though Riser (R) is favored in LA-05, there's actually a decent slate of local Democrats looking into the race:

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Mayo, Gallot and Hunter are Black. Usually not "the best recommendation" for  white-majority Deep South district. Liberal? Even worse)))))

[Miles]

Mayo, Gallot and Hunter are Black. Usually not "the best recommendation" for  white-majority Deep South district. Liberal? Even worse)))))

Worse, this is what Hunter said:

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Yikes...

[Miles]

On the anniversary of the VRA, yesterday, Hagan called out the Assembly (and rightfully, so, IMO):

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[Miles]

Erik Erickson endorsed Brannon yesterday and ripped Tillis:

 

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Ouch!

[smoltchanov]

Mayo, Gallot and Hunter are Black. Usually not "the best recommendation" for  white-majority Deep South district. Liberal? Even worse)))))

Worse, this is what Hunter said:

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Yikes...

Idiocy.... Hope he will be beaten if he runs. Badly...

[windjammer]

Though Riser (R) is favored in LA-05, there's actually a decent slate of local Democrats looking into the race:

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According to Cook: LA-5: R+15
LOOOOOOOOL

[Miles]

'Hat tip to Rogue.

Alexander will be leaving Congress immediatley to take a post with the Jindal Administration:

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Looks like we have a special election here! (even if it turns out to be boring!)

[Miles]

Rather than citing family as the main reason for retirement, Alexander pointed to the dysfunction of Congress. Cilizza suggests that after the August recess, we could see more retirements for that reason:

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[SPC]

Could Jeff Landry stage a comeback?

[Miles]

Could Jeff Landry stage a comeback?

Its possible. His old district was split up pretty nicely though. 21% of the current CD6 is from his old 3rd, so he'd probably need to have several Baton Rouge area candidates also get in too.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wasn't Alexander a party switcher?

[Miles]

Wasn't Alexander a party switcher?

Yep. He switched parties a half-hour before the filing deadline, to ensure that the Democrats wouldn't run a candidate against him.

The leadership was particuarly bitter, as Alexander's and Hall's switches in 2004 effectively cancelled out the Democrats' special election wins with Herseth-Sandlin and Chandler. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Reminds me of the interview clip of Mark Sanford (prior to the jaunt down the Appalachian Trail of course), describing that his problems with the state legislature stemmed from many of the Republicans having been Democrats (who shared the GOP view on god, guns, gays and life) who switched parties, but brought their spending habits and love for pork with them.

Would it be innappropriate to call them Bush Democrats?

I would say you can have them back, but Wake and Mecklenburg aren't voting Republican anymore.

[Miles]

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Reminds me of the interview clip of Mark Sanford (prior to the jaunt down the Appalachian Trail of course), describing that his problems with the state legislature stemmed from many of the Republicans having been Democrats (who shared the GOP view on god, guns, gays and life) who switched parties, but brought their spending habits and love for pork with them.

Would it be innappropriate to call them Bush Democrats?

I would say you can have them back, but Wake and Mecklenburg aren't voting Republican anymore.

Neat, thats really insightful.

Yeah, as much I'd like to see current Democrats compete in their traditional southern strongholds, I think the new urban coalition will be more durable.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It was the pro-pork GOP of Bush-Delay that turned most of these into Republicans and then Obama who helped keep them there. If Clinton is the nominee, it will be interesting to see how well she does in these areas that have shifted heavily towards the GOP in the last 15 years in the South.

[Miles]

It was the pro-pork GOP of Bush-Delay that turned most of these into Republicans and then Obama who helped keep them there. If Clinton is the nominee, it will be interesting to see how well she does in these areas that have shifted heavily towards the GOP in the last 15 years in the South.

The swings in Appalachia and the white areas of the deep south would be crazy!

[JacobNC]

As for Alexander receiving 43% of the black vote, Miles, do you know how they calculated that?  Is there data on how much of the black vote other Republicans received?

[Miles]

As for Alexander receiving 43% of the black vote, Miles, do you know how they calculated that?  Is there data on how much of the black vote other Republicans received?

Looks like it was from this guy's analysis:

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[tpfkaw]

A simpler, duller explanation for why Alexander got 43% of the black vote... he didn't have a Democratic opponent.

[Miles]

A simpler, duller explanation for why Alexander got 43% of the black vote... he didn't have a Democratic opponent.

True, but they still stuck with him instead of voting third party.

The last time he actually had a D opponent, in 2006, he was still getting about 70%.

[Miles]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/north-carolina-question-suggestions.html


PPP will poll NC again!

Ah, good. We'll see if the cookies brought McCrory's approval rating up.