LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Well, I've got a busy weekend for politics ahead of me in Baton Rouge.

Friday is Paul Dietzel's campaign kickoff for CD6 with Herman Cain. I haven't listened to Dietzel speak on YouTube or anything, so this will really be my first impression of him. I'll probably stick with my endorsement of Claitor, but I'll see.

The morning after that is the Louisiana March for Life, a walk put on by various pro-life groups in the state. I was going anyway, but Vitter and Cassidy will be speaking there, so I'd like to see them if I can.

[RogueBeaver]

Miles flagged this interesting article on Twitter about Tillis' primary strategy. Ignoring forums might come back to bite him.

[RogueBeaver]

Best not to seem entitled to the nomination, activists won't like it. I remember feeling quite strongly about that for most of TX-Sen '12. Plus you need at least some positive enthusiasm, difficult for establishment types but not impossible. Pitch: these people talk a great game, I've actually enacted our wish list in Raleigh. Which may or may not have its GE pitfalls.

[Miles]

HAHAHA.

[Miles]

Guilford County Commissioner Bruce Davis (D) is forming an exploratory committee in NC-06. He would give Laura Fjeld competition in the primary.

[Miles]

Brannon getting in touch with his inner E.W Jackson: food stamps = slavery.

Still, the audience at the Guilford County Republican candidate forum must have liked him as he won their straw poll handily. Candidates for CD6 also spoke; Walker and Webb had the highest ratings.

[morgieb]

LOL @ North Carolina Republicans.

Surely you can do better than Brannon or Tillis?

[Miles]

I guess it makes sense that Huckabee would endorse Mark Harris, but it should give his campaign a good boost anyway.

[Miles]

Some very good analysis on the NC R primary. The prospect of a runoff could really throw a wrench in Tillis' strategy.

He could be facing a united coalition of socons and tea partiers in a low turnout election, in addition to the complexities that go with his NCGA leadership role.

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[RogueBeaver]

Hollis' announcement video.

[Miles]

Hollis was getting a lot of friendly fire over his ads and presence in the race.

[RogueBeaver]

Hollis was getting a lot of friendly fire over his ads and presence in the race.

Meh, not like he or Maness were ever going to overtake Cassidy. If he can get a decent profile for another statewide race then all the better.

[RogueBeaver]

Might Dietzel get the RedState endorsement? He has a post up there. Erickson only lets candidates post diaries if they're RS-endorsed: Buck and Bevin among others have written there recently. Anyhoo, I very much like what I see. Solidifying the fi and socon blocs would be very helpful in the primary. Plus Paulist help from that PAC.

[Miles]

If I get to speak with him at the kickoff tomorrow, I'll ask him about Erickson

[Miles]

Watching interviews of Bill Cassidy before and during his House tenure is like day and night.

2008: "My issues are Democratic issues," wants to work across the aisle.

2013: Raising minimum wage bad for families, Democrats just want big government.

'Reminds me of Pat McCrory.

[RogueBeaver]

Ratfycking material for Landrieu in the jungle. Plus the Dukakis letter, donations to her, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Great overview of LA-6.

[Miles]

Great overview of LA-6.

Chabert had been pretty quiet lately so I was wondering about him.

I was intending this map for the Gov thread I have, but it probably fits here better. This is why Chabert likely didn't run; I don't think he'd be able to overcome geography to beat Claitor or Dietzel (exemplified well by the Dardenne/Nungesser scenario):

[RogueBeaver]

If the field doesn't get more crowded then I guess a mini-race for the TP slot, then a flanking maneuver in the runoff. What's Felder like, ideologically speaking?

[Miles]

There's not much out on her yet, so I'm not exactly sure. Being a Republican woman businessperson should at least help her stand out, though.

[Miles]

The morning after that is the Louisiana March for Life, a walk put on by various pro-life groups in the state. I was going anyway, but Vitter and Cassidy will be speaking there, so I'd like to see them if I can.

Apparently Maness will be there, too.

[windjammer]

I have the feeling that Maness will rise.

[Miles]

Apparently Edwin Edwards commissioned a private poll for CD6.

[RogueBeaver]

You don't think the Lizard will actually run, do you?

[Miles]

Eh...

I'd be leaning no.

I'm at Dietzel's thing now. It should start soon... It's a pretty good crowd; more than I expected.