LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races
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  LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races
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Author Topic: LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races  (Read 212028 times)
windjammer
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« Reply #1375 on: March 28, 2014, 11:56:01 AM »

Do you think Landrieu and Edwards will campaign together? Does the Landrieu family have good relations with Edwards?

Their relationship isn't very good. Landrieu was Treasurer under him in the 1990s and he saw her as sort of a upstart 'threat' to his faction back then. He didn't like that she ran for Governor in 1995 and worked against her then.

Of course, look for the Republicans to be linking them together anyway.
It's strange he's so willing to help Landrieu Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #1376 on: March 28, 2014, 07:29:57 PM »

NC-Sen: Ouch. With the primary looming near the gloves are finally starting to come off. While there have only been minor scrapes so far, Harris just took Tillis to the (proverbial) woodshed:

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More NC-Sen: Libertarian Sean Haugh has a funny video/ad. I'd be pulling for this guy if I were a Libertarian. His opponent is established nutter Tim D'Annunzio.

NC-06: I'm a bit disappointed that Coble will be the 'special guest' at a campaign event for Baby Berger. This isn't an endorsement per se, but still...

LA-Sen: The Cassidy campaign finds itself trying to backtrack his comments on the uninsured. Again, I don't think this will be terribly damaging, but over at Team Mary we'll take it. There are a lot of conservatives in LA who probably agree with him, but if Democrats emphasize his comments, it could help to motivate their voters.

LA-Sen: Mary is working with five other Democrats (Begich and Warner are the others up this year) on Obamacare fixes. Her campaign's first ad focused on fixing Obamacare, so this should help that narrative.



At the press conference, a reporter asked Edwards if he was running to help Landrieu. He was probably joking, but his first response was "At first, I almost ran for her seat instead of the House seat!"
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Flake
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« Reply #1377 on: March 28, 2014, 07:42:07 PM »

NC-Sen: Ouch. With the primary looming near the gloves are finally starting to come off. While there have only been minor scrapes so far, Harris just took Tillis to the (proverbial) woodshed:

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That's just wonderful (politically speaking)
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Miles
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« Reply #1378 on: March 31, 2014, 05:14:38 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2014, 05:22:50 AM by Miles »

Leading off:

NC-12/NC-09/Charlotte Mayor: The Charlotte City Council could choose a replacement for ex-Mayor Patrick Cannon by tonight. There doesn't seem to be a clear frontrunner:

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The three choices that conventional wisdom points to are State Sen. Dan Codfelter, ex-Councilman Smuggie Mitchell and ex-County Commish Jennifer Watson Roberts. Obviously, note that selections do not necessarily have to be currently serving on the council.

Mitchell is currently running for CD12. He has hinted that he would leave the crowded CD12 race for the appointment. Without him, the race could potentially evolve into a two-person contest between Malcolm Graham and Alma Adams.

My choice, both personally and from the position of a Democratic strategist, would be Roberts. She was on the county commission from 2004 to 2012 and is respected in the Charlotte political community.

Though I wrote Watson off when she ran for NC-09 in 2012, she ran far ahead of the other Democrats. After years of Myrick landslides, she held Pittenger to just 6 points. When Pittenger retires (could well be within the next 10 years, as he's 65) this district will almost certainly be more competitive. Having Charlotte mayor on her resume, and everything that goes with it, would really help Watson if she ran again.



NC-Sen: One of the leaders of the 'Women for Tillis' coalition was a founder of NC's Planned Parenthood headquarters. Probably not a big story, but I can see Harris, and to a slightly lesser degree Brannon, bring this up later.

NC-Sen/NC-02: Aiken and Hagan spoke at the NC Young Democrats Convention in Greenville.

NC-12: Profile of George Battle. He has an impressive resume, with a career in the school and hospital system. I'd place him at the top of the second tier in this race.

LA-06: In its series on this race, the LSU Reveille interviews Trey Thomas (R). Thomas was a football player at LSU but now runs a nonprofit which helps troubled families get access to counseling and education. A black Republican, he's also emphasizing minority outreach.

More LA-06: Going on with his 'new generation' theme, Dietzel is out with some proposals for Congressional ethics reform. With his background in technology and campaign fundraising, Dietzel brings some expertise to the table here.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1379 on: March 31, 2014, 12:39:29 PM »

The AFP NC saturation continues.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1380 on: March 31, 2014, 01:01:20 PM »

Seriously, I laugh if finally Brannon is selected. How to spend money for nothing Tongue.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #1381 on: April 01, 2014, 12:57:49 AM »

Brannon is crazy.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/why-did-a-republican-senate-candidates-controversial-website
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1382 on: April 01, 2014, 01:25:51 PM »

LA-6: Long TPE Dietzel radio interview.
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Miles
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« Reply #1383 on: April 01, 2014, 02:22:01 PM »

NC-Sen: There are a few positive tea leaves for Tillis in today's news. First, though nothing formal has been released, the Brannon campaign raised 'around $500K' for Q1. 'Seems a bit underwhelming to me, considering all his recent support from Lee and Paul. By comparison, I'd say Tillis would at least be in the $700K-$1M range.

Also, because of NC's, um, unique ballot alphabetization statue, Tillis will have his name first on the list of Republicans. Depending on who you ask, that gives him a bump from about 1-3%. Seemingly not much, but it would be enormously beneficial if he ends up just barely squeaking past 40%.

Finally, here's the actual ad Rove is running for Tillis.

There will also be a SurveyUSA poll of NC out tonight. There have been ads run for Hagan since the last bit of polling, so I wonder if they'll start paying dividends.

LA-Sen: Maness is out with a short video, which I guess may develop into an ad eventually, linking Landrieu and Cassidy. Both DC elitists voted for Dukakis and Blanco (shame!) while Maness is the champion of us average folks.

More LA-Sen: Tucked into an article about energy issues and this race, Landrieu's predecessor, Bennett Johnston has an encouraging prediction:

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1384 on: April 01, 2014, 02:57:43 PM »

Cassidy voted for Blanco over Jindal? Or was it earlier in her career? Curious to see what SUSA says.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1385 on: April 01, 2014, 08:05:06 PM »

Long read from Byron York on LA-Sen. Hits a lot of themes mentioned in this thread. Tongue And yes, Cassidy did vote for Blanco in '03.
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Miles
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« Reply #1386 on: April 03, 2014, 02:46:32 AM »

NC-Sen: Tillis, Brannon, Harris and Grant made the cut for the the debate later this month. This will benefit the latter three because 1) they'll have more time to themselves than in previous debates and 2) none have gone up on the air yet, so this will be their first statewide platform.

More NC-Sen: Profile on Heather Grant. It talks about her military and nursing background; she would do well to emphasize that at the debate.

NC-Sen: If you've missed my updates on NC-02, this is a good summary of the race. This sums Ellmers up nicely:
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NC-06: This is for tb78. Berger got the endorsement of Surry County Commissioner Paul Johnson. I can easily see him carrying all of those VA border counties in the primary.

NC-12: Good profile on Macolm Graham. Long active in Charlotte politics, his ultimate goals were to be either a Congressman or Mayor.

LA-04: Despite covert draft efforts by the LADP, Shreveport mayor Cedric Glover is sounding less than enthusiastic about taking the plunge against Fleming. Glover is term limited, so it would help Landrieu if he ran for Congress to generate black turnout. Still, its hard to see Glover forcing Fleming int a runoff, meaning his 'impact' on the Senate race would be limited to the primary. 

LA-06: Edwards sat down for an extended news interview. Its worth the watch, IMO.
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Miles
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« Reply #1387 on: April 03, 2014, 04:35:51 PM »

LA-Sen: The first bit of Q1 fundraising news in this race is from Maness, who raised $405K.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1388 on: April 03, 2014, 06:42:50 PM »

How long between the debate and the primary? Two weeks?


If Grant has a knockout performance, it could very well boost her into that second spot since the field has been held low in the numbers. With Brannon's issue regading that civil suit, she could run as the cleaner outsider that Tillis will be less able to distract from the issues. An arguement she could also take again Tillis in the runoff regarding who is best to take on Hagan. Provided she avoids gaffes and has no backage, in my view she is the best choice of a crop of terribles and the money will follow message and opportunity.
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Miles
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« Reply #1389 on: April 03, 2014, 08:10:09 PM »

^Yeah, its exactly two weeks.
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Miles
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« Reply #1390 on: April 04, 2014, 02:39:28 AM »

NC-Sen: While not exactly an endorsements, McCrory says Tillis clearly has the best chance in the general. Though his Q1 fundraising hasn't been released, Tillis is expected to be at or near the $2 million mark.

NC-03: Another outside group, the Emergency Committee for Israel is going after Jones with a $150K buy. This makes sense given Jones' non-interventionist stance on foreign issues.

LA-Sen/LA-01: Despite voting for it in past years, Cassidy is trying to keep Ryan's latest budget proposal at arms' length. On the other end, Scalise, as RSC chair, is pushing for its more extreme version.

LA-06: A good profile on Craig McCulloch. From what I've seen of him, he just comes across as an angry businessman (basically Vance McCallister without the charm or likeability). Despite his business background, I think he'd do well to position himself as the socon candidate. Currently, I'd put him at the top of the second-tier Republicans.



Monday will be a big day on the campaign trail here. Landrieu will be speaking at two events in here in Baton Rouge. The first will be with the Baton Rouge Press Corps, actually at the same venue where Edwards announced. I'll plan on 'covering' that Cheesy

At the LA College Democrats, we'll be hosting an event with her at the capitol. Its supposed to be closed door, so I'm not sure what I can get out of that as far as this thread goes.
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Miles
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« Reply #1391 on: April 04, 2014, 06:03:53 PM »

Dammit, the events of my last post where cancelled Sad Reid has scheduled a floor vote Monday, so Landrieu's events here will be rescheduled.

LA-Sen: One of the quirks brought on by jungle primary is that parties in LA give 'endorsements' instead of 'nominations'. As a matter of good form, parties are expected to withhold endorsements when they have multiple candidates in a race (e.g, an exception being the GOP's non-endorsements of David Duke in 1990/1991 even though he was the strongest R in his races).

There is a push within the LAGOP to give Cassidy the endorsement. Ostensibly, this would be blatant favoritism, as it would give him undo preferential status over Maness and Hollis. Still, without the endorsement, the LAGOP can't run ads for or direct resources solely to the Cassidy campaign. This will be problematic as Landrieu's campaign is about to kick into high gear on the other side. Anyway, some within the LAGOP are looking for ways to circumvent common party practice to help Cassidy.

If Vitter becomes Governor, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to scrap the jungle primary system entirely. He's long hated it and he's trying to get the party to do more to help Cassidy. Vitter is also moving to make sure the party establishment is skewed in his favor going into next year's Gubernatoral race.



The Louisiana Conservative did a few interviews with candidates in CD6.

Claitor: True to form, he emphasizes his record of getting stuff done in the legislature instead of going after the red meat stuff (Obamacare, the debt, social issues, etc.).

Felder: This is the first good interview of Cassie Felder I've read. Hard to summarize in a few sentences, but her main issue will be tax policy. She says that once the ACA is repealed, Congress could use her tax expertise in drafting an alternative (as if its ever gonna get repealed in the first place).

Dietzel: Dietzel is running as the reform-oriented 'outsider'. He mostly spends the interview contrasting himself to the 'powers that be' in Washington.
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Donerail
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« Reply #1392 on: April 04, 2014, 08:31:20 PM »

Brannon's power level is over 9,000.
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Miles
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« Reply #1393 on: April 07, 2014, 11:08:42 AM »

NC-Sen: The National Right to Life has endorsed Tillis. This should give him more credibility with conservatives who are otherwise tepid about him. I guess his motorcycle abotion bill helped him here.

NC-06: It always pissed me off that Baby Berger is the frontrunner here. Speaking at a middle school, he was asked about same-sex marriage and went down the road of likening it to bestiality.

LA-Sen: Roughly on par with previous quarters, Cassidy has raised $1.2 million. In LA, donors designate their funds for either the primary or runoff. About $200K of this will be allocated to the runoff.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1394 on: April 07, 2014, 04:09:04 PM »

Well, Vance McAllister might not be sticking around long
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windjammer
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« Reply #1395 on: April 07, 2014, 04:16:17 PM »

Does it often happen in Louisiana? Blablabla I'm Christian, but I'm a womanizer, and I ask for forgiveness. The next Vitter!
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Flake
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« Reply #1396 on: April 07, 2014, 04:21:40 PM »


He got corrupt much faster than most other politicians. Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #1397 on: April 07, 2014, 04:32:16 PM »

God dammit.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1398 on: April 07, 2014, 04:33:43 PM »

Good news for Mary? Maybe a decent democrat could run here, in order to boost black turnout because a run off could happen if many republicans seek this office!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1399 on: April 07, 2014, 04:39:18 PM »

So does that mean Neil Riser probably beats him in November? Is he even running again?
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